10 Metrics That Matter On Fantasy Football Draft Day

As your Fantasy Football drafts approach get ready with 10 things to consider.

10 METRICS THAT MATTER ON FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT DAY

It’s almost draft day.  You have your rankings and Average Draft Positions (ADP).  You have your little printout with your RB and WR tiers.  You have your Top 200 List.  Now what?  For years, Fantasy Football research has consisted of this and only this leaving every fantasy owner wanting more. With the use of performance metrics and data analytics, fantasy football research is vastly progressing and becoming more viable and user friendly.

I won’t bore you with Average Depth of Target or Air Yards, but I will provide you with some bullet points that hopefully will stick with you on draft day.  Metrics that matter will not be found in a tier list or ranking sheet, but will be buried in the body of an article and glanced over on a podcast. Some of these metrics are based off my own research, but MOST of what your about to read is not my research and has been re-hashed for educational purposes.  Enjoy.

• Last season, quarterbacks who went undrafted in more than 50% of ESPN leagues finished as a top-10 fantasy performer at the position 89 times.

• Last season, quarterbacks who were drafted in more than 50% of ESPN leagues finished as a top-10 fantasy performer at the position 81 times.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

WAIT ON QUARTERBACK.  THE QUARTERBACK THAT COULD WIN YOUR LEAGUE MAY BE ON THE WAIVER WIRE.

• In Jimmy Garoppolo’s five starts last season, the San Francisco 49ers averaged the 4th most yards per play in the NFL.

• In each of the past two seasons, four of the top five offenses in terms of yards per play have produced a Top-9 fantasy QB.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

DON’T SLEEP ON JIMMY G.  HE’S BETTER THAN EVERYONE THINKS HE IS (ADP = 8TH ROUND)

• In his last 5 seasons, Eli Manning has averaged at least 112 Targets per year just to his Tight Ends.  Last season, he targeted his Tight Ends 159 times.  Evan Engram had 115 Targets last year.

• Giants head coach Pat Shurmur’s Tight End groups have totaled at least 700 yards and 6 or more TDs In 3 of the last 4 seasons. Engram finished 4th in fantasy points per game…..WITH 11 DROPS AND A 55.7% CATCH RATE (156TH IN THE NFL).

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

EVAN ENGRAM WILL FAR EXCEED HIS DRAFT POSITION (ADP = 5TH ROUND)

• Since 2015, Kirk Cousins ranks 4th in fantasy points off play-action.

• Over the past three years, Cousins has a 70.1 percent completion rate off play-action, which is 1st in the NFL among qualified QBs.

• Last season, Vikings pass-catchers were 1st in the NFL in receptions (102) and yards (1,312) off of play-action passes.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

COUSINS WILL HAVE TALENTED RECEIVERS AROUND HIM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HIS CAREER AND WILL FINISH AS A TOP-5 QB (ADP = 7TH ROUND)

• In the last 10 years, only 5 players have scored 19 or more total Touchdowns in a season.  Only 1 has managed double digit touchdowns the following year (Jamaal Charles 2013 with 14 TDs).

• Over the past decade, there have been 129 instances of a flex-eligible player (RB, WR, TE) recording more than 10 touchdowns in one season.  Only 8.5 percent of those players saw an increase in touchdowns, and on average, each player lost about 5.5 touchdowns from their prior-season total.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT TODD GURLEY AND ALVIN KAMARA WILL REPLICATE THEIR 2017 TOUCHDOWN TOTALS.

• There have been eight rookie running backs who finished Top-10 at the position during the past three seasons.

• Last season, under now Giants head coach Pat Shurmur, the Vikings ranked second in rush percentage.

• While in Minnesota (2016-17) and Philadelphia (2013-15), Shurmur’s offense was 6th in red zone rush percentage.

• During those stops, running backs in Shurmur’s offense averaged 5.35 catches per game.

• Last season, under Shurmur, the Vikings running backs were targeted 108 times.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

SAQUON BARKLEY IS IN THE RIGHT SYSTEM (7TH OVERALL, 1ST ROUND)

• In 2014, from Weeks 13-16, Tom Brady finished 14th in QB fantasy points.

• In 2015, from Weeks 13-16, Tom Brady finished 8th in QB fantasy points.

• In 2016, from Weeks 13-16, Tom Brady finished 9th in QB fantasy points.

• In 2017, from Weeks 13-16, Tom Brady finished 20th in QB fantasy points.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

CALL IT WHAT YOU WANT, BUT I THINK THIS IS THE END OF TOM BRADY’S ELITE FANTASY PRODUCTION AND NOT WORTH THE DRAFT PRICE (4TH ROUND AS THE 3RD QB)

• From 2007-2017, nine of the top-30 running back seasons by fantasy points per snap (min. 350 snaps) have come from a Saints running back, while no other team makes the list more than twice.

• Of the 75 most touchdown-efficient seasons of the past decade, only eight players saw more touchdowns in the following season.

• Alvin Kamara led all running backs with 35 touches that gained 15-plus yards.  Only one other running back had more than 25 (Todd Gurley).

• He scored 7.6 more touchdowns than an average player would have with identical volume, which is the highest in 10 years.

• Of the 2,173 instances of a running back totaling at least 100 carries in a single season since the NFL merger (1970), Kamara ranks best in fantasy points per touch and second-best in yards per touch.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

IT IS VERY UNLIKELY ALVIN KAMARA WILL REPLICATE HIS 2017 CAMPAIGN (6th OVERALL, 1ST ROUND)

• In 2017, Kenyan Drake averaged 5.21 yards per carry in the first three quarters, which ranked 2nd in the NFL.  In the fourth quarter, Drake averaged 3.41 yards per carry, which ranked 27th in the NFL.

• Drake had a 30+ yard carry on 4.5 percent of his carries last season, which is #1 in the NFL (minimum 100 carries) in the past six years.

• From 2012 to 2016, there were eight running backs (minimum 100 carries) who had a rate of higher than 2.5 percent of their carries resulting in a 30+ yard carry.

• Subtract Drake’s two biggest runs from last season and he averaged 0.42 fantasy points per carry.

• In 2017, Frank Gore averaged 0.44 fantasy points per carry.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

KENYAN DRAKE’S SUCCESS IN 2017 WAS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON BIG PLAYS (ADP = 3RD ROUND)

• Last season, Aaron Jones had 81 carries.

• Eight of those carries went for at least 15 yards, or one every 10.1 carries.

• Among running backs with at least 75 carries last season, this was #1 in the NFL.

• Jamal Williams, his teammate and current RB1 in Green Bay, averaged a 15+ yard run one in every 153 carries.

• In the four games in which Aaron Jones got 10-plus carries last season, he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and 14.8 fantasy points per game.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

AARON JONES IS THE RUNNING BACK TO OWN IN GREEN BAY (ADP = ROUND 9)

By:

Matt Bishop

Mbishop4545@yahoo.com

@Bishphat on Twitter

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