2018 Waste Management Phoenix Open PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week we saw Jason Day WD from a proam then in typical Jason Day fashion, win. I was all over him before some late swaps on Thursday morning because I couldn’t really find out any news on the back. Not that it would’ve mattered given the back 9 collapses some of the guys had. For the week the picks went 9/13 cuts made with the winner in Jason. For the season the cuts made percentage stands at 70 with 60% of the write ups having the winner.
This week we get the “Greatest Show on Grass”, which should live up to that name. The Waste Management Open is played at TPC Scottsdale, which is most famous for its short par 3 16th that turns into the biggest party at any PGA tour event all year. The course itself is a par 71 that plays over 7,200 yards. It has 3 par 5s and a drivable par 4, which is really my favorite kind of hole to watch. Every year this is a great tourney and I don’t expect this year to be any different. Hideki Matsuyama is the back to back winner here and the highest priced golfer this week. I discussed this quite a bit on the Always Pressing DFS PGA podcast.
Weather looks about as ideal as it possibly can be, so one less thing for us to think about. We do get a “normal” tee schedule since we are finally playing one course. This is one place where according to @futureoffantasy the afternoon wave has a legit shot to have a lower scoring average than the morning because of the temperature swings in the desert. Keep that in mind if you bet first round leader. It may not matter, but it’s interesting to me.
We have a normal 36 hole cut so all game types are in play, but I will mostly be playing GPPs. I’ve found that early season, for me, is best to take some shots in GPPs.
Hope these picks aren’t “trash”.
Jordan Spieth $11,400 – You can make a case for all the guys up top. I think they are all priced right and so I’m going with Jordan because he is top of the model this week. He has 2 straight top 10s here and despite a let down at the Sony he still finished 18th. 5 straight top 5s before that.
Jon Rahm $11,000 – He had a major melt down this past weekend, but he gets to return to the old stomping grounds, which always feels good. He has finished 16th and 5th in his 2 appearances at the WMO. I’d keep an eye on the Fanshare tags, but I think ownership will be spread out evenly between the guys above $10K.
Tony Finau $9,100 – He has 2 straight missed cuts here so I’m hoping that drives some ownership away. He is playing the best golf of his life right now and if he can make those putts inside 10 feet I really like his chances.
Alexander Noren $9,200 – Second in my model this week. He has never played here, but its quite obvious with the 2nd place finish last week he is playing some really good golf. He hit almost 80% GIR while going -8 on the par 5s for the week. It’ll be interesting to see how much he is talked about this week, so again Fanshare Tags, watch them.
Keegan Bradley $7,400 – He missed the cut here last year, but 24th and 17th in the 2 years before that. His T2G game has been very good. I’m going to finally get fully on board this week.
Gary Woodland $8,600 – He will be popular, but his form coming in is very good. Course history is so-so, so I could see why some might fade at high ownership. This course SHOULD fit his game very well.
Austin Cook $8,300 – I think he is a great pivot off the guys in this range. I don’t see him being that highly owned. He’s never played here, but 14th, 18th and 22nd since his win in November.
Zach Johnson $7,700 – This price is bad in a good way for us to play him a lot.
Kyle Standley $7,600 – 2 straight made cuts here and has played some good golf until the 78 this past Sunday.
Bottom of the Can – These guys aren’t trash by any means, I just like to be a smart ass.
Kevin Streelman $6,800
Peter Uihlein $6,800
Chesson Hadley $6,800 – its another dumb price and he will be the highest owned below $7000
John Peterson $6,900
So that is all for me this week. We still have the PGA Slack open, so if you want to get in there hit me up. This is a great week for sports, so make sure to schedule some couch time this weekend. Per the usual hit me up on twitter if I can help at all.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods