Hello NASCAR degens! Race one of the Chase is in the books and Martin Truex is still the guy to beat. I had him in 100% of my LUs so that helped but my Kyle Busch stacks didn’t go so well when he couldn’t overcome his bad luck and penalties. A couple of well placed cautions and he would’ve been the lucky dog which could’ve changed the whole race. Short on time this week so want to get onto New Hampshire.
Also I wrote half of this before qualifying and finished during/slightly after. I disregarded that info into my analysis and will still do same updates on my Twitter with thoughts after analyzing post qualifying and both practices Saturday.
Martin Truex Jr. $10,500: Nothing I can say here that is new. Shocked he’s not the highest salary and will most likely be the favorite to win every week in the Chase despite the track. Always runs at the front, leads laps, and turns fastest laps. Worth the price from here on out.
Kyle Busch $10,700: Should battle Truex for the highest price and favorite each week. He looks to be the only car to contest Truex week in and week out but there’s still a lot of racing left. Five T10s in L9 races here and has also led over 50 laps in five of those. If no penalties (or run ins with Brad Kes) he figures to be a factor at the end.
Kevin Harvick $10,100: Runner up last week and may be finding his stride at the right time. Defending champ of this race, five of six T5s, and has led plenty of laps here. If you want to be unique, starting with Harvick is a great option.
Kyle Larson $9,500: Significant drop in price for Larson, which I’m going to take advantage of. Failed inspection here in July causing him to start last but that didn’t stop him from a runner up finish. He has three T3 finishes here in his 7 career starts. For this price, you can’t get a better value for a car that seems to run at the front consistently and will contest for the win.
Ryan Blaney $8,000: Hasn’t been great here with an average of 16.2 but did finish 11 & 12 at New Hampshire last year. Is a great option at this price IMO. Only one T10 in L5 races this year so price is low. Worth buying for the reward factor.
Erik Jones $7,800: Another young gun to buy low with a high ceiling. Blew a tire here in July which led to a bad finish and he’d rather not talk about Chicago last week. I’ll be using him with the thought that he will get back on track this week.
Daniel Suarez $7,500: Underpriced driver of the week. Finished 6th in July in his debut and made quite the impression. He’s cooled off a bit from two months ago but contesting for a T10 is on the radar almost weekly and with his run in July, don’t be surprised at more.
Ty Dillon $6,700: I’ve mentioned you can almost count Ty for a finish of 18-23. He finished 16th in July in his New Hampshire debut and expect the better side of his average this weekend.
Chris Buescher $6,200: He’s getting back to the price where I can play him confidentially. Best finish here is 25 but I feel the price is right. Knowing his ability and equipment is better than the past, running in the low 20s or better is within reach.
Michael McDowell $6,000: News came out this week that McDowell will be out of a ride as Kahne is taking over next year. Gotta be a risky play as they haven’t been running as well recently but maybe the pressure of the decision will loosen them up and run freely again. Especially with McDowell knowing he’s looking for a job.
Boogity boogity boogity! Let’s go win some lobster!
*Weekly disclaimer: This was written before qualifying. Be sure to make note of any car/engine changes and qualifying position as value may change once starting position is established