2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Paul Casey, finally. That’s about all that needs to be said about last week. Other than PC the picks were garbage. Lots of carnage everywhere last week, but only 7 of 13 made the cut. For the year 71% have made the cut with 56% of the writeups having the winner.
This week the Tour moves to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. This will be the second tournament since The King passed. Bay Hill plays just over 7,400 at a standard par 72 with 4 four 5s. Last year Marc Leishman was able to best Charley Hoffman and Kevin Kisner by one shot to win at -11 for the week. 2016 saw Jason Day win this event at -17. Other previous winners include Matt Every (2014 and 2015) and Tiger way back in 2013, 2012, 2009 and 2008, so only 4 of his last 5 starts here have been wins. This course really demands a good short game, the ability to miss fairway bunkers and a good long iron game.
The weather looks great this week. The wind might kick up a bit on Friday, but at this point I am not concerned.
It is important to note that this tournament is an invitational so less golfers (120) will start than a normal tournament (144), but the cut will be the same, top 70 and ties. This means more teams will get all 6 golfers through the cut and stars and scrubs is much more playable than the last 2 cuts events.
As I did last year I’m going to celebrate Arnold Palmer’s accomplishments while making the picks.
5th Most Tour Wins EVER
Jason Day $11,800 – He is the highest priced golfer, so I do think a lot of people will pass. I don’t want to pass on a guy who has finished 2nd and 1st in his last two starts and is a past champion here. I do think Tiger will be popular, but I don’t see him being Mega Chalk (probably 25% on average), so that will lead to less ownership on any of the guys above him.
Alexander Noren $9,200 – I love the $9K range and will try and fit as many of these guys as I can in my lineups. Noren hasn’t finished worse than 21st in 2018 and is coming off a 3rd at the Honda with a 14th in Mexico. He is arguably playing the best golf of his life right now. He did finish 49th here last year, so I hope that scares some people off.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,500 – I’m a big fan this week. He has great form coming in and will be trying to improve on his 10th place finish here last year.
Tyrell Hatton $9,000 – I’ll be watching his tags and projected ownership on Fanshare very closely. If people are passing, then I will be all over him. 4th here last year and 3rd at the Honda.
7 Major Victories
Adam Scott $8,700 – He is making a lot of birdies right now, which is ideal for DK purposes. His putter is improving week to week, so I’ll hop on this week. 12th, 35th and 3rd ins his last 3 starts here.
Luke List $8,100 – I think his length will be a bit of an advantage this week as he can blast it past some of the fairway bunkers. Another birdie maker who’s approach game is on point recently.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,900 – Has finished 6th in both his starts here. 5th in Mexico 2 weeks ago and smoked some weird minor league tourney he played in last week. I’m always a fan, but he can be tilting sometimes.
Bubba Watson $8,600 – Has finished 9th and 1st in his last two starts. I could see him going overlooked this week because of the course history, but he is playing way better than any time in the last two years.
Arnie’s March Against Children’s Cancer
Sam Burns $7,200 – He is playing very well right now. Very close to earning status on Tour. 2 straight top 12s, even though he faltered down the stretch last week.
James Hahn $7,600 – Hasn’t missed a cut since last September. Course history isn’t that great, but 3 straight top 26s.
Kevin Streelman $7,100 – He was a chalk MC last week, but I will go back this week at lower ownership and hope he has figured out his iron game.
Kyle Stanley $7,200 – Has finished 17th and 12th with two MCs in 4 starts here. I like this price for his potential.
Brandon Harkins $6,900 – I’m not a huge fan of this salary range, but Brandon could be a nice pivot off what will probably be chalky Sam Saunders.
I’m not sure how lineup construction will go this week. I tend to want to do the opposite of what is trending, but this week I don’t have a good feeling either way. More than likely I’ll got more balanced, but with the smaller field and 6/6 probably high stars and scrubs has quite a bit of merit. Per the usual hit me up on the twitter or hop in The Sports Degens Slack if you want to talk golf or tilt.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods