2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Preview
Hello, Degens! The Wasted Management Open certainly lived up to the hype, at least in my eyes. It was a great golf tournament to watch, like usual. For the week the picks went 10/13 on making the cut with the winner in there in Woodland. For the year 71% of the picks have made the cut and 64% of the tournaments I have written up have had the winner in there somewhere. All time stands at 72% and 39% respectively.
Moving on to the AT&T Pebble Beach (Monterey Peninsula Spy Glass) Pro Am. This tournament is what the title says, a Pro-Am, much like the Career Builder a couple weeks ago. This means that all guys will play at least 3 rounds with Amateurs then the cut will happen after Saturday’s round is complete. Another very important factor is that this tournament is played at 3 different courses from Thursday through Saturday. Spy Glass, Monterey Peninsula and Pebble Beach will be played one time each with Pebble being the lone course for Sunday. All 3 are par 72 and relatively short, with Spyglass being the longest at 6,960 yards.
I’m not a huge fan of this type of tournament. Rounds last forever and CBS will be on the coverage again, so expect lots of Pacific Ocean shots and celebrities Saturday. Hoping Sunday is better, but either way I’m going to scale back a bit what I would usually play. Also due to DK continuing to price the golfers like they are drunk, I won’t be playing any cash games. Until they make the pricing less soft I just am not a fan of cash.
The weather looks unusually warm with no rain and only a little wind in the forecast. The only iffy day is Saturday where it looks like it will be windier than the other 2 days precut. I’m not super worried about it right now, but something to keep in mind.
Dustin Johnson $11,700 – Until he “falls” down a flight of stairs again I will play him in just about every lineup I make. He finished 3rd here last year and is coming off a win the last time he played on the PGA tour. I think you can make a case for every guy above 10,000. I don’t see any reason to fade any of them for many reasons. However, I think we might be able to get DJ at lower than normal ownership. Most people don’t want to pay top dollar and with the options below ownership should be spread out a little more than usual.
Jason Day $10,900 – His ownership will be more interesting to keep an eye on through the tags on Fanshare. He won his last time out so that usually means less people will play him, but there is a significant discount between him and DJ, so I’m on the fence with him. Either way his wedge game was on point at the Farmers, which should bode well this week. It is very possible to get him and DJ in the same lineup, which might be popular, but is hard not to do.
Matt Kuchar $8,800 – He figured out his driver after his first-round last week. I’m a big fan of him this week as his lack of length won’t hinder him on these shorter courses. He did miss the cut last year, so I hope that drives some ownership down.
Paul Casey $9,400 – I’m on Paul just about every time he plays, but he just can’t seem to finish. He hasn’t missed a cut on any tour since January 2017. Pretty incredible.
Chez Reavie $8,000 – He is borderline A list but he is top of the B list. I’m not real sure how to gauge his ownership, but he played very well last week (obviously). His course history isn’t great, but it wasn’t at TPC Scottsdale either, so I’m not worried about it.
Kevin Streelman $7,300 – He has 2 top 20s in his last 2 starts here. Pair that with good form and I am a huge fan this week.
Kevin Chappell $7,900 – He has made the cut 3 of the last 4 years at this tournament. The ball striking has been good, so if he gets the putter going he can contend.
Austin Cook $7,000 – The price is really bad, like good bad. He’s mispriced. Anyway, he is top 25 in pre tourney odds to win and not even close to that in pricing. He has never played here but coming off a bunch of made cuts in a row with a top 25 in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Scott Piercy $7,000 – Another mis price here. He did miss the cut last week, but was 6th, 25th and 32nd in the 3 prior starts. He made the cut here last year with a less than stellar 55th, but he is much better than this price, so I will take advantage.
Jason Kokrak $6,900 – He is a streaky player, but this is a great price for him. I will load up.
Russell Knox $6,700 – He might putt with an early 2000s Nokia phone, but no way he should ever be this price in this field.
Billy Horschel $6,600 – Damn near min price for him? Ok DK have another.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $6,900 – The price is just bad. Could it be because he has terrible course history? I don’t know but hard to pass on a guy this good at golf at this price in this field. Usually his short game is sketchy, but the stats are better recently. I’ll have some, but less than what I think the field has because I’ve seen him get weird from time to time.
There are even more misprices out there than what I’ve identified here, but I’m not going to list them all. If you play PGA DK every week then you can find them very easily. I bitch about pricing because 6/6 will be very high assuming there aren’t very many chalk bombs. This makes it much harder to be successful and cash games less desirable to me. Used to be 6/6 was less than 10% weekly and if you simply had 6/6 one could make some good money. Let me know any questions or if I can be of any help.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods