2018 Fantasy Football Draft Values
The best way to draft a successful fantasy team is to capitalize on the market inefficiencies. Whether
that means drafting the guy that was supposed to breakout last year and is now undervalued or avoiding
the player everyone is sure will be the next Kareem Hunt, despite what the numbers say. Leaving the
veteran on the board that is going to have more competition for touches or grabbing the
underperforming player in a new scheme or an improved offense are important distinctions to make
when deciding how to build your team. Fantasy owners fall in love with the late round pick that carried
them to the championship or swear to never draft that first round bust again, but situations change
which means so does a player’s value.
Drew Brees, QB8
I, personally, am firmly on the “wait on quarterback” bandwagon when it comes to fantasy. However,
there are always exceptions and Drew Brees in the seventh round, is one of them. Brees has finished as
a top 12 fantasy quarterback for 14 consecutive seasons, and just broke the NFL completion percentage
record for the third time in his career. The Saints have been one of the most pass happy offenses every
year. From 2012-2016, the Saints scored 73% of their touchdowns by passing, last year it was an even
50-50 split. If the Saints score even 60% of their touchdowns through the air this year Brees will have no
problem exceeding his current cost.
ADP: Early 7th Round, Value: 6th Round
Marcus Mariota, QB21
The “Exotic Smashmouth” offense the Titans ran under head coach Mike Mularkey was doing Mariota
no favors, in terms of fantasy value. Replace that with an offense run by Matt LaFleur, who just came
from the Los Angeles Rams where Jared Goff showed one the biggest improvements from year 1 to 2 by
a quarterback, and there is hope for Mariota. The expected improvement in offensive scheme should
help Mariota in terms of efficiency, and the rushing floor he provides makes Mariota a prime target for
someone waiting on QB.
ADP: Late 12th Round, Value: 10th Round
Demaryius Thomas, WR17
Demaryius is currently being drafted as the 17th wide receiver off the board, despite having finished as
WR16 or better since 2011. Thomas was atop the wide receiver conversation after finishing as the
overall WR1 in 2013, and WR2 in 2014, but the Broncos quarterback situation has been suspect since
then and Thomas’s production has suffered. The acquisition of Case Keenum should solidify the
quarterback position and propel Thomas back into top 12 wide receiver territory.
ADP: 4th Round, Value: 3rd Round
Marvin Jones, WR25
After an average start to his career in Detroit, Marvin Jones was one of the best big-play threats in 2017.
The downside to a big-play wide receiver is that it often goes hand-in-hand with a roller coaster of
scoring outputs. Last year, Jones scored single digit points in 6 games, and there may be reason to
believe that will be a more common occurrence this season. Jones was targeted 10+ times in only 3
games last season, all games that Kenny Golladay didn’t play. After battling hamstring issues early last
season Golladay is looking to take a step forward in year two, and that could limit the number of
opportunities for Jones.
ADP: Mid 6th Round, Value: 8th Round
DeVante Parker, WR38
In 2017, Parker received at least 7 targets 9 times, and averaged 13PPG in those games. The rest of his
games were awful, to be direct. The departure of target monster, Jarvis Landry, leaves 161 targets
available. Some of those will be absorbed by the additions of Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, but
Parker should easily eclipse 100 targets and produce at a more consistent clip this season.
ADP: 9th Round, Value: Early 7th Round
LeSean McCoy, RB11
A running back in line for about 300 rushes, and potentially another 50 receptions would generally be
exactly what fantasy owners are looking for from their RB1. However, when the offensive line and
receiver corps are both among the worst in the league cause concern. Add in a rookie quarterback, seen
as a project by most, and two others with five starts combined, and touchdowns may be hard for
anyone in this offense. For a running back who turns 30 this July, that all may be too much to overcome.
ADP: Mid 2nd Round, Value: Late 3rd Round
Lamar Miller, RB28
Coming off back to back years where Lamar failed to live up to his pre-draft hype, he has fallen out of
favor with fantasy owners. Now being drafted as the RB28, Lamar is being undervalued entering this
year’s fantasy draft. Deshaun Watson is expected to be fully health by the start of training camp, good
news for Lamar considering he averaged 15.4 PPG in games that Watson started last year. His main
competition for carries, second-year RB D’onta Foreman is still recovering from an Achilles injury, and
may be slated to start the season on the PUP list.
ADP: Early 7th Round, Value: Early 5th Round
Jordan Reed, TE9
Every year fantasy owners must decide if players with perennial injury concerns are worth the
headache. When you’re getting someone like Jordan Reed in the seventh round is an example of when
the reward can outweigh the risk. You’ve got your starting RBs and WRs, possibly a QB, but hopefully
you’ve seen the numerous articles by some of the best data guys in the business and know it’s just not
worth taking a QB early. So, you’re starting to fill your bench or look for a tight end and see that Reed,
who during 2015 and 2016, his last two mostly healthy seasons (14 and 12 games played, respectively),
he averaged 15.9 PPG. The week to week inconsistency of tight ends, outside the top few guys, makes
drafting a guy for his ceiling, like Reed a good value at this point in the draft.
ADP: Early 8th Round, Value: Early 7th Round
Trey Burton, TE11
As someone who impressed in limited action last season, Trey Burton should benefit from his move to
Chicago. He is now penciled in as the number one receiving tight end in an offense run by Scott Nagy,
who was not afraid to give Travis Kelce plenty of opportunities while in Kansas City. Burton could see
close to 100 targets as the potential number two option behind Allen Robinson, putting a 62-670-6 line
within reach. Those numbers would’ve been good for TE8 last year, and an average of 10.3 PPG, a
quality return for someone currently being drafted in the 10th round.
ADP: 10th Round, Value: 8th Round
Eric Ebron, TE23
The other Colts tight end, Jack Doyle, is currently being drafted as eighth tight end off the board in
round nine. That price for a number one tight end in an offense lead by a healthy Andrew Luck is
certainly reasonable. Picking up Ebron with your last pick, before kicker and defense of course, in hopes
he overtakes Doyle as the number one tight end could give you the “steal of the draft” every fantasy
owner is looking for.
ADP: Undrafted, Value: Late Round Flier