Hello Degens! Sorry I missed ya last week as I was honing my wind golf skills in Florida while also being cold AF. The CareerBuilder was the first cut tournament I missed writing up for The Sports Degens in almost 2 years. The last time I put out picks was the Sony. There we didn’t have a winner but 10/13 made the cut. That brings the season total to 71% cuts made with 56% of the writeups having a winner. All time those numbers stand at 72% and 38% respectively.
On to the Farmers Insurance Open. It has been played for about the last million years at Torrey Pines, which is just North of La Jolla, CA and located right on the coast. This tourney will be split on Thursday and Friday with each guy playing the North and South course one time, and then it will be moved to the South course for the weekend. Both are your standard par 72 with the South course playing almost 7,700 yards and the North at about 7,250. Last year Jon Rahm blitzed the field on Sunday en route to his 3 shot win. Other recent winners include Brandt Snedeker (2016), Jason Day (2015) and Scott Stallings (2014). Some guy named Tiger Woods has won this about a billion times as well, but not since 2013, also he’s playing this week incase you live on another planet.
Weather this week looks relatively good for this tournament. Winds are always a factor and could lend us a bit of an advantage on either Thursday or Friday morning. Listen to the Always Pressing pod to hear bucks give his take on that. It is possible that guys on the easier North Course who play in the morning could gain a stroke or 2, which could be the difference between making and missing the cut. The cut here is traditionally high as are the average scores, all relative to other tournaments of course.
Before we get into the picks I’ll address Tiger. The price for me is way too high on DK. I don’t know what they were thinking. Anyway, I won’t be playing him much if at all. Right now, on Fanshare his start calls are extremely low, so for that reason he makes an interesting GPP play, but it is hard for me to see him paying off that price unless he top 10s.
Let’s see if we can “insure” ourselves a weekend sweat.
Jon Rahm $11,800 – He looked dialed in last week. Obviously, he won here last year. Historically the previous weeks winner’s ownership is depressed, which is usually the case with the defending champ as well. For that reason, I think he is a great GPP play. Its very hard to win back to back and back to back on tour, but Jon isn’t your run of the mill PGA Tour pro. He is number 2 in the world. Justin Rose will garner a lot of ownership up top, but I’m a bit apprehensive because he is traveling from the Middle East, which traditionally doesn’t translate to success here, even for the best players in the world.
Rickie Fowler $11,400 – He has missed 3 straight cuts here, but in years past has played on the other side of the globe. This year he is coming off a couple “bye” weeks, so I don’t have any worry about being worn out like I have with Rose. If you go back to years past he finished 6th, 13th, and 20th back to 2011. Rickie is in for a big year and I will be there for most of it. Also 4th and 2nd his last 2 tournaments.
Jason Day $9,400 – An very interesting strategy to me would be to skip the guys in the 5 figures all together and start here. Jason obviously has had some injury issues, but I think he is on the other side of them (knock on wood). He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his last 4 starts, which reminds me of a similar run he had in 2016. I’m going to go ahead and hop on board now and hope we can see Jason Day of old again.
Marc Leishman $9,200 – I’ll be playing a lot of Marc this week. He is a great wind player and has made the cut here 3 of the last 4 years with a 2nd a couple years back. He also has a great short game, which I think is key here this week.
Gary Woodland $8,600 – 5 straight made cuts here and 8 in a row on Tour. He traditionally plays well in the early season, so he is not a bad OAD option either.
Tony Finau $8,700 – Finished inside the top 5 here last year. Knock on some more wood he hasn’t missed a cut on tour in forever. Great cash option.
Charles Howell III $8,300 – He will be popular in cash, but I don’t see any reason to fade him. GPPs are a different story, but he can be played there too. His inability to actually win limits the upside, but a top 20 would do.
Jhonattan Vegas $7,700 – I expect him to be popular, but this price is too good to pass up. 4 straight made cuts here and a bunch more on tour including 11th and 7th his last 2 tournaments. I’ll probably play in cash.
Shane Lowry $8,800 – I haven’t heard much buzz about him this week, so I will be playing him in some GPPs. He hasn’t played since November, so GPP only, but he has the length and accuracy to compete here.
Lucas Glover $7,100 – Just a stupid price on him. I’ll be heavy.
Kevin Streelman $7,500 – 2 straight made cuts here and has some nice form with a top 30 in his last 3 tournaments.
Stewart Cink $6,800 – Until DK respects him with a higher price I will count him as a free space and just plug everywhere.
Brandon Harkins $7,200 – Made 6 of 7 cuts on the season with a top 10 last week. Interesting GPP play.
So that is all for this week. As you could probably gather from the notes above I’ll be playing all game types. I’ll also be in the Sports Degens PGA DFS Slack chat mostly during the day everyday this week. If you would like an invite send me a DM on twitter. Per the usual hit me up with any questions and listen to our pod Always Press PGA DFS Pod on every outlet possible out there including iTunes.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods