2018 Genesis Open PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week was pretty good from a DFS perspective for the picks. 11 of 13 made the cut with 3 guys finishing in a tie for second. The only real disappointment was Kuchar. For the year the 73% of the picks have made the cut with 58% of the write ups having the winner.
Moving on to the absolute glory that is the 1 course tournament, normal cut, full field at the Genesis Open. This tournament is played every year (since 1999) at Riviera Country Club located in Pacific Palisades, CA. The course plays just over 7,300 yards at a par 71 with 3 par 5s and the famed par 4 drivable 10th. Last year Dustin Johnson fired -17 to win by 5 shots over Scott Brown and Thomas Pieters. 2016 saw Bubba hold off Adam Scott and Jason Kokrak to pick up the win. Other recent winners include James Hahn (2015), Bubba (2014), John Merrick (2013), and Bill Haas (2012).
The weather this week looks very good with minimal wind and no rain in the forecast.
DraftKings changed up the pricing this week and it is much sharper than recent weeks. I think it’s a week where all game types are in play. I enjoy having to make some hard decisions on who I’m going to play and not. This is how DFS is supposed to be.
Dustin Johnson $11,900 – Defending champion, highest priced, coming off a less than stellar Sunday last week. I think this leads to potentially lower than normal ownership. The defending champ and highest priced combined in previous weeks has led to lower ownership, so it’ll be interesting to see if that trend continues. I will be super heavy DJ, probably close to 90% or more of my lineups.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,500 – If you are looking to pivot off DJ it is hard to ignore Tommy. Has finished 6th, 1st, and 6th in his last 3 events on the Euro Tour. He is a world class ball striker. I do expect him to be rather popular, because people have taken notice of his stellar recent play.
Alexander Noren $8,700 – He is long enough to compete here. He hasn’t ever played here, but I still like his form coming in. 21st and 2nd in his last 2 starts on Tour.
Chez Reavie $8,000 – Last 2 tournaments he has had bad course history but finished 2nd. Well he has missed the cut here 5 of his last 7 starts here. I hope he goes over looked again due to that and his length or lack there of off the tee.
Thomas Pieters $7,700 – I expect him to be popular and he has been known to blow up a time or 2. 2nd here last year and coming off a bunch of made cuts in a row. This price is just hard to pass for a guy who can score like he can.
Charl Schwartzel $7,800 – Hasn’t missed a cut since (knock on wood) the US Open last summer. He did miss the cut last year here, but 4 straight made cuts before that with a 5th and 3rd in 2014 and 13. He should be decently low owned with all the names in this range.
Bubba Watson $7,800 – Pretty good price for a guy who has won here twice. He is getting some form back, so I will try and hop on before he is super chalk. I don’t think most people trust him, yet. Watch the Fanshare tags and projected ownership.
Brendan Steele $7,900 – 3rd at the Waste Management a couple weeks ago. He has the length and ability to score to accel here. 6 cuts made in a row here.
Kevin Chappell $7,700 – He has really weird course history. MC 26th MC 23rd MC 24th MC. If you believe in patterns is easy to decipher where he SHOULD finish this year. 2 top 10s in his last 3 starts.
Charles Howell III $7,300 – The price is too low to overlook. 3 straight made cuts here and coming off 6th at the Farmers.
Martin Kaymer $7,500 – Never played here, but good form coming in. Interesting pivot off some of the chalkier guys above.
Brandon Harkins $6,800 – I could see him being the highest owned guy below $7,000, but he is playing very well.
Adam Hadwin $7,100 – He is interesting to me because he has made 3 straight cuts here and hasn’t missed one on Tour since late August. Will probably go largely overlooked.
As you can probably tell I’m going to be pretty balanced this week. Again, DraftKings priced this out well, so there are a lot of decisions to make. So, it should be a fun or very tilting week. If you need any help check out the @AlwaysPressDFS pod on just about every pod place, hit me up on twitter or hop in the SD Slack chat.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods