2018 Greenbrier Classic PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week 11 of 13 picks made the cut and we had the winner in Molinari, as did everyone else. Nevertheless, it goes down as a winner, so for the year 72% of the picks have made the cut and 44% of the time we have had the winner. All time those number are 72% and 38% respectively.
On to The Military Tribute at The Greenbrier in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. The Old White TPC is the host course again, as it has been every year since 2010 except 2016 when the tournament was cancelled. The rough is thick but not too long and the par is 70 with 2 par 5s, playing just under 7,300 yards. Last year Xander Schauffele came from behind in the final round to win. In 2015 Danny Lee broke through with a win. Other winners include Angel Cabrera (2014), Jonas Blixt (2013) and Ted Potter Jr. (2012).
The weather this week could play a bit of a factor. It looks like some rain could move through Friday afternoon, which might lead to a delay. Since it’s Tuesday morning as I write this, I won’t make any decisions until Friday night. It’s always hardest to play the weather when it happens Friday instead of Thursday, but there could be an advantage one way or the other.
This field is even weaker than last week’s but unlike last week this is a full field of 156 players with a standard top 70 and ties cut. So, 6/6 percentage should be at normal levels and not the 30% number we saw last week. With that said it’s not a bad week to scale back a bit given the unpredictability of a lot of these guys.
On to the Picks!
Tony Finau $11,500 – I am hoping that most people can’t deal with the biggest price on the board for him. I will be heavy because he is top of my model, much like Molinari was last week. He finished 7th here last year and 13th in 2015 and coming off the 5th at the US Open after being in the final group Sunday. I’ll take all that and hope that people are fading due to the price.
Joaquin Niemann $9,700 – Another price increase for him, but it makes sense due to the field. Finished 17th last week with one bad round on Saturday. He hits a lot of greens and hits it far enough to attack the 2 par 5s here with ease. I think a win will come for him during this year, so time to hop on.
Russell Henley $10,400 – If you are looking to fade/pivot off Finau then I’d go with Russ. 2 straight top 5s here and finally found some good recent form in the past couple weeks. I think he will be popular, but if you get different elsewhere it could work out. Doubt he is super chalk (over 30%) no matter what.
J.B. Holmes $9,000 – Fair warning, I never get him right. This is an ownership/bounce back spot play for me. He was one of the few to miss the cut last week, but this is a great spot to get him at lower ownership on a course where he has had success. He has improved his finish position every year he has played here and he finished 9th last year.
Andrew Putnam $7,800 – He started hot last year, but unfortunately tournaments aren’t Thursday only. I’ll go back at what I hope is a bit of reduced ownership, although I don’t expect it. I’m not going to worry about that though because this price is even better than last week.
Ryan Armour $7,700 – Finished second last week, which I don’t expect to go unnoticed by most. He has been trending in the right direction, but he is no longer a “sleeper” pick. He did miss the cut here last year.
Kevin Streelman $8,600 – I expect Keegan to be popular at a $100 discount from Streels. I’d rather pivot off Keegan, but his ball striking is very good right now. Anyway, Streelman shot 62 last Friday to get into contention, but fell off on Sunday. He hit a lot of greens and fairways last week, but the putter wasn’t very good.
Patrick Rodgers $7,800 – 4 straight cuts made and has the upside to top 10.
Brandon Hagy $7,400 WITHDRAW– Most people won’t know who he is, so he should be sub 5%. Coming off a playoff loss last week on the web.com in his second tournament back since November. He is coming off a wrist injury, but now is the time to hop on board.
Corey Conners $7,000 – He has made 6 of his last 7 cuts on tour and he barely missed at the Travelers. The price is good enough for a lineup or 2.
Sam Ryder $6,800 – 2 straight made cuts. Didn’t play very well last weekend, but just need a cut made most likely out him at this price this week.
Bronson Burgoon $7,000 – He scored a lot of DK points last week and finished top 10.
Chase Sieffert $7,000 – He Monday qualified at the Travelers and parlayed that into a top 10, which got him into this field.
So that is all for this week. Hit me up with any questions and we will be in the slack chat all week chatting/tilting everything golf. Send me your email and I’ll send you an invite.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods