2018 Honda Classic PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week 13 of 13 picks made the cut, which was the second time that’s ever happened. We also hit the winner in Bubba. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to parlay that into a great week because of a couple duds. Part of the grind. For the year 76% of the picks have made the cut with 62% of the write ups having the winner. All time those numbers are 73% and 39% respectively.
This week we head to the East Coast for the Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. PGA National has played host to this tournament since 2007. Last year Rickie Fowler was able to go pretty low for the week, firing 12 under and besting Morgan Hoffmann and Gary Woodland by 4 shots. Other previous winners include Adam Scott (2016), Padraig Harrington (2015), Russell Henley (2014), and Michael Thompson (2013). The golf course plays just over 7,100 yards and is a par 70 with 2 par 5s. It is known as a difficult, ball striker’s course that demands placing the ball properly in the fairway (often with less than driver) to have a chance to score.
A couple important things to remember going into this week. Lock for contests will be 3 hours earlier than what we have been used to in previous weeks. Should be around 6:30 AM EST. Also, wind does tend to be a factor here. Right now, looking at the forecast it doesn’t worry me too much, but winds are scheduled to kick up every day into the mid-teens. There is potential that one tee time draw gets the better end of the wind, so just be mindful.
I’m taking a bit of a different approach than typical weeks. I think going more balanced in lineups will be optimal, so I’m leaving off the guys above $10,000. Doesn’t mean I don’t like them, but this could be a week where some weird stuff happens and having 6/6 in your lineups might be in a small minority. I might still play some of the 10K guys with Noren being my top pick because of potential low ownership and JT being my next pick at what I think will be higher ownership.
Tyrell Hatton $9,500 – It will be interesting to see how highly touted he is this week. He is top of my model, so I will have plenty no matter what. I hope people think he will be chalky and fade. 4th here last year in his first and only start. Hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his last 10 starts worldwide.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,400 – You will probably hear ball striker’s course a lot this week and Tommy is one of the best in that category. He hit 70% of fairways last week en route to a weak 37th place finish. My hope is he goes overlooked this week and we can get him a “lower” ownership.
Russell Knox $9,000 – I’m not going to lie, its hard for me to stomach paying this much, but I think that a lot of people will think that way. Coming off a 15th place finish at the AT&T. He was super chalk last year and missed the cut, but before that was 26th 3rd and 2nd. He is hitting a lot of greens in regulation right now, so I hope he brings some semblance of a putter.
Jason Dufner $8,600 – 7 straight cuts made here and even more than that on tour since last summer. He will most likely be on my cash team.
Martin Kaymer $8,000 – 3 of 4 cuts made here with a 4th last year. He flashed some form last week so I will stay on him again this week.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,800 – If you don’t follow Euro golf then you probably have never heard of him. Google him and its hard not to like the guy. 10 straight cuts made world wide.
Dylan Frittelli $7,600 – He should be super low owned in the $ contests. Another Euro Tour guy who is coming off a 6th in Dubai a month ago.
Patton Kizzire $7,300 – I love this price for Patton. He is the field leader in DK points gained per Fanshare. 2 cuts made here in 2 tries.
Charles Howell III $7,300 – Played pretty well last weekend en route to a 37th place finish. He is grinder who has decent course history.
Ryan Palmer $7,300 – Made 6 straight cuts here and has flashed some decent form recently. Another grinder.
Stewart Cink $6,700 – 7 straight made cuts here but is coming off 2 MC on tour. I’m hoping the week off gave him time to get the head back.
Talor Gooch $7,000 – 20th last week. Made 3 of last 4 cuts on tour.
Andrew Landry $6,700 – Dude is legit boom or bust. His last 6 starts are MC MC MC 2nd MC 4th. He does have some non Honda Classic history at this course and should be next to not owned in large field GPPs. Use lightly.
So that’s it for the PGA Tour Honda Classic presented by the European Tour. JK. This is a low scoring tournament like last week so cheer for those pars and celebrate the birdies. Don’t forget to check Fanshare and read Logan Harpers post on Wednesday with some great ownership pivots. Hit me up if I can be of any help.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods