2018 John Deere Classic PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week we were 50/50 on the picks making the cut and since Kevin Na was no where near a pick we didn’t have the winner. For the year 72% of the picks have made the cut and 42% of the writeups have had the winner. I’ve been on a bit of a bad run, well the worst of my life, so I’m changing a few things up this week in hopes to turn the tide.
This week the tour heads to Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This tournament has been played at TPC Deere Run every year since 2000, so we have plenty of course history. This also marks the end of what is probably the worst part of the season tournament wise. I wrote the following sentence last year and I feel like it applies even more this year. One could make the case that the earliest part is worse, and I wouldn’t argue much against that, but these 3 weeks have been brutal in my opinion. The good news is the PGA Tour changed up the schedule, so I think this is the last year for this stretch. Anyway, the course plays over 7,200 yards and scoring is usually very low. The par is 71 with 3 gettable par 5s. Bryson Dechambeau got his first win of his career here last year. Other winners include Ryan Moore (2016) Jordan Spieth (2015 and 2013), Brian Harman (2014), and Zach Johnson (2012).
The weather looks pretty good for the first 2 days with potentially a bit of an advantage for AM/PM due to some winds kicking up on Thursday. I don’t know if its enough to worry about at this point, but something to monitor and check again Wednesday night.
On to the picks.
Bryson Dechambeau $11,400 – He ranks first in my model. He is the defending champion so I’m hoping we can get him at slightly less ownership much like Xander last week. I think a lot of the ownership will go to the next pick and Zach Johnson, so I’ll roll with Bryson and see if he can go back to back.
Joaquin Neimann $10,400 – He locked up his tour card last week, so the pressure is off. He can make The Open with a win or if he finishes top of those who haven’t made, assuming he is top 5. He is scoring a lot of DK points every week and that includes playing par 4s well.
Kyle Stanley $9,700 – He is third in my model and has putted well over his last 24 rounds, which I think bodes well for his chances here. His ball striking is usually very good, so if he continues to get some putts to roll in I like his chances a lot.
Chesson Hadley $9,500 – He ranks second in the field in proximity to the hole and is top 10 in putting over the last 24 rounds. He is only 1 of 3 in cuts made here, but 25th last year and playing much better this year.
Chris Kirk $8,900 – He is top 10 in my model and coming off a 6th place finish his last time out. Playing the par 4s very well and is 5th in proximity over his last 24 rounds.
Joel Dahmen $7,600 – One missed cut here last year, but 5th last week and 23rd the week before. He is 5th in DK points in this field over the last 24 rounds.
Brian Gay $8,600 – His course history is not good, so hopefully that will lower his ownership a bit. His putter has been very good recently.
Andrew Putnam $7,600 – He was cursed by being the highest owned last week, so I’m going back this week after he burnt a lot of people. He is hitting a lot of greens, just needs to hit it a bit closer and roll some putts in.
Kevin Streelman $8,100 – I was very surprised by his missed cut last week. He just had a terrible round on Thursday and couldn’t quite make the comeback Friday. I’m hoping most people see that and stay away.
Corey Conners $7,300 – I played him a bunch last weekend for rounds 3 and 4 and watched him miss a lot of “makeable” putts. The ball striking is there, so hopefully the putter is too this week.
Bronson Burgoon $7,500 – I haven’t played as much of him as I should’ve the last couple weeks and now people have caught on. Still think he is a good play this week even though the putter has been sketchy.
JT Poston $7,400 – He is 11th in the field in the last 24 rounds, which is a steal at this price.
Brett Stegmaier $6,800 – He is another guy who has putted well recently, so hoping that continues this week.
So that is all for this week. The Open Championship AND Barabasol are next week so don’t fire the whole bankroll this week. Per the usual hit me up on twitter or SD Slack chat with any questions.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods