2018 The Masters PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week 9 of 13 picks made the cut, which brings the season total to 74%. All time that number is 73%, but that isn’t why you are here. Let’s get into the greatest golf tournament on the greatest stage, THE Masters.
The Masters is the first of golf’s 4 majors and is played annually at Augusta National Golf Club. I’m not going to talk too much about the course itself as you will be inundated with information this week, if you pay attention. We did record a pod on Monday night that is out and Bucks goes into the course more. The most important aspect of this course is the coverage. No other golf tournament all year will give you the ability to watch as many golf shots as you can this week. Masters.com is top notch and will have the leaderboard as well as options to watch groups and certain holes.
The weather this week looks like it will cooperate for the most part. It is possible that winds are the worst on Thursday AM and then Friday PM. When I say worst, I mean from 8-10 MPH. It’s not a huge deal but is something to keep in mind. All guys will go off 1 both days, so no split tees and the tee times are nonstop from 8:30 AM EST to 2:00 PM. Rain on Saturday afternoon could stop play for a bit but other than that rain won’t be much of a factor.
Another important factor of this tournament is the cut. Top 50 and ties with everyone within 10 shots of the lead will make the cut after Friday’s rounds are complete. Since only 87 golfers are starting so there could be a large number playing the weekend, unless someone runs away the first 2 days. There is also no MDF like we saw last week in Houston. I say that because this tournament could play like a WGC no cut. One can reasonably eliminate 15 golfers from contention from the start which only leaves about 70 golfers with a legit chance to make the cut and compete for a win. This will lead to ownership pooling with certain players and with only a few cut we won’t have much of an edge by only selecting “safe” cut maker plays. We really must think outside the box and force our lineups outside of our normal comfort zone. In the picks below, I’m going to try and identify some players that I think will be lower owned than those around them in hopes that I or you or all of us can win a lot of money this weekend.
Justin Thomas $10,800 – Of the guys in the five-figure region on DK he is the guy I will roster the most. As of now he has the least amount of tags on Fanshare of those above 10K and his course history isn’t the greatest (22nd 2017 and 39th 2016). He may not have the high finishes of the others, but he is playing the best golf of his life and probably in the world, since he won the last major of the year in August. Most likely I will grab a piece of all of the most expensive guys on my 50+ teams this week, but since I think JT will be the lowest owned then I will risk it this week by having more of him.
Paul Casey $8,800 – I really don’t expect him to be low owned, but I am going to eat the chalk here based on his course history and recent form. 6th, 4th, and 6th in the last 3 years here and has a win this year. He will be on most of my teams this week.
Sergio Garcia $8,600 – I think it is entirely possible that he comes in at lower ownership than many of the projections out there. Typically, people don’t want to roster the defending champion because it is hard to defend a title due to the commitments one must make during the week. At this price he doesn’t have to win, we just need a top 15 or so out of him. He has top 10s in his last 2 starts in very strong fields.
Tommy Fleetwood $8,500 – When the year started I expected to see him as major chalk this week. That however hasn’t happened, which is perfectly fine with me. He is a world class ball striker, who will probably be overlooked by the public with the names around him. I’ll take my chances again this year and hope that I can get some of the money back I lost on the missed cut he had last year.
Adam Scott $8,000 – Most view him as a bad putter, which is true. Since his long, anchored putter was out lawed he has struggled on the greens. With that said he did finish 9th here last year, which tells me quite a bit. The price is right for him and he is a past champion with plenty of course knowledge, which is king this week.
Alexander Noren $8,100 – He missed the cut last year, which I think should translate into lower ownership. He has been in contention multiple times this year already and has the putter to succeed this week.
Tyrell Hatton $7,700 – He is getting very little buzz this week, unlike last year when he was coming off top 10s at the Open Championship and the PGA Championship. I guess a missed cut last year will do that. Assuming he can keep his cool I think he has the game to contend for another top 10 this week. He finished 3rd in Mexico where he did show some mental stability by making eagle after almost blowing up to get into the lead. Another spike mark on 18 ruined his chances like they always do. Hopefully the purity of Augusta’s greens will prevent those spike mark blow ups.
Ian Poulter $7,600 – People hate Ian. I get it, as he is cocky and not American cocky, which pisses people off even more. He reminds me of Reed but is European, so Captain Euro. With all that said most people will pass right over him this week especially with Kuchar being way under priced beside him. He didn’t play here last year, but since 2010 he has missed only 1 cut and has 3 top 10s. I’ll gamble on the putter staying hot this week.
Adam Hadwin $7,200 – He finished 36th last year in his first attempt and has top 12s in 3 straight starts. I think ownership in this price range will be spread out. I’ll put him on a lot of teams this week.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,100 – 15th in his only appearance here in 2016. Since then he has held a special place in my heart. He has the DGAF attitude that will only help at a pressure cooker like Augusta National.
Brendan Steele $6,900 – I think Bryson and Chappell will take up most of the ownership below $7,000. I like Steele at lower ownership with a 27th last year and better than $6,900 recent form aka 5 top 30s in 6 starts this year.
Austin Cook $6,700 – He is the only guy I want exposure to below $6,900. He is a southerner who probably has always dreamed of stepping on the grounds. He will be next to not owned as well, so I will take him on a few lineups this week.
Bernhard Langer $6,300 – I’m not sure that I will roster him, but if you are down here then this is who I would go with. He has missed the cut every other year since 2014. When he makes it, he is a top 25er, which would more than pay off. He missed the cut last year so I’ll venture to bet that he makes it this year.
Sticking with the lucky number 13 for the picks this week. I think this week more than any it is important to trust your gut. Per the usual hit me up with any questions on twitter and I will most likely be in the SD slack all day Wednesday. If you want an invite DM me your email and I’ll send one.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods