2018 PGA Championship PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Not a huge surprise with JT taking down the WGC last week. He wasn’t on the picks and there was no cut and you are here to find out who I will most likely be using the 90% rule/reverse jinx on come Friday morning, so let’s get after it.
The year’s final major, the 100th PGA Championship, will be held at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, MO. This is the first time the tournament will be played here since 1992 when Nick Price took home the trophy. The course is a par 70 at around 7300 yards depending how they set it up. All the talk so far has been about the greens. Apparently, they almost lost them this summer due to several boring factors. The important thing is they are going to keep them running slow until Thursday morning. Even then I doubt they are going to mow them down too much and risk burning them up. So, I think they will be relatively slow. Not your local muni slow, but Major Championship slow. The greens and fairways will also most likely be soft, so guys won’t have to worry about run out off the tee and can fire at most pins. With all the said most of the holes call for a right to left ball flight or more commonly referred to as a draw. I’m not going to fully buy into the draw narrative because of the softness of the fairways. No matter what the course probably plays long and the rough could be very penal.
As I write this, Tuesday afternoon, it looks like most of the rain chances will be gone by Thursday. A stray shower probably can’t be ruled out, but it shouldn’t be a big deal. The winds also look to be light and it is going to be hot with highs in the 90s and humidity probably about one million percent.
Dustin Johnson $11,400 – He checks all the boxes except the correct ball flight. The softness of the fairways should negate that aspect for the most part. It will be interesting to see his ownership and I’m hoping its not as high as it should be. A couple things I think that can keep it down, he is the highest price and he isn’t the best course fit. No matter what I might go all in.
Justin Rose $9,400 – How much I end up playing him will depend on any news I can get about his back. He has been chalky the last couple majors (see my FanShare article), but that is for good reason. I’m hoping people see the WD last week and back off.
Brooks Koepka $9,600 – He is coming off a promising 2 days last weekend and he tends to show up in the biggest events. If you really dig into his numbers last week he hit it well, just didn’t make the putts. He has been top 6 in scoring in 4 of the last 9 majors.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,300 – I have laid off him the last couple of majors and that has cost me dearly, so I will not this time. His proximity numbers are a bit concerning, but otherwise he has the game to win and is due for a big win (Top 20 in all majors this year).
Tony Finau $8,100 – Has the length and propensity to make birdies, which is great for DK. I don’t know if he can win, but at this price he doesn’t have to.
Paul Casey $8,000 – He will be the chalk of the chalk most likely, but I see no reason to fade, just eat and get different elsewhere.
Patrick Cantlay $8,400 – The stats are very good. My question for him is can he calm the nerves and finish a weekend strong. I’ll take a chance or 4 with him and try to at least match his projected ownership.
Joaquin Niemann $7,600 – The stats are very good but be slightly cautious as he has mostly played on much easier golf courses. Either way I like his attitude and fearlessness, which could lead him up the leaderboard. If he is low on the Fanshare tag count, then I will most likely have him on a bunch of teams.
Ian Poulter $7,400 – He backed it up last weekend after a great start. I’m hoping that leads some to stray away. He doesn’t really do anything great, but does a lot of things good, so I’ll continue to play him.
Keegan Bradley $7,500 – Per the usual with Keegan he is playing very well Tee to Green. My hope is that the “slower” greens will bring the field back to him a bit. Key word is hope there.
Brian Gay $6,800 – He was a trendy pick pre-his MC at John Deere. He came back the next week at the Barbasol and figured somethings out and finished 6th. Hopefully his hot putting continues.
Kevin Na $6,800 – His approach game has been very good recently, so hoping he can make some putts this week.
Stewart Cink $6,700 – DK continues to disrespect the Stewgoat. His ball striking has been very good, so I would take chances all day at this price and he will most likely be on my cash team.
So that is it for this week and the Major Championships for 2018. Hard to believe the Fed Ex Cup will start soon and the Ryder Cup is right around the corner. Per the usual hit me up on twitter with any questions or if you need help. We will also be in the SD Slack Chat all week. Good luck!
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods