2018 Players Championship PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week was just awful for the picks. Only 6 of the 13 made the cut and 1 more got the ole MDF. For the year 73% of the picks have made the cut and 42% of the write ups have had the winner, but we are now 5 straight PGA tournaments without one, ugh.
The Players Championship is this week’s event for the PGA Tour and is commonly referred to the year’s 5th major because all the best golfers play. It is held year in and year out at TPC Sawgrass, which plays just under 7,200 yards. The par is 72 with 4 par 5s, with a drivable par 4, which is always fun to watch/tilt. Last year’s leaderboard still baffles me as Si Woo Kim won his first/only tournament and the rest is a mash up of extreme tilt. Other past champions include Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), Martin Kaymer (2014), and Matt Kuchar (2012). The defending champion has never successfully defended his title, but much like a major the best players usually are there at the end.
The weather looks almost perfect. The course is in Florida and close to the coast so winds do tend to pick up a bit in the afternoon. As I write this (Tuesday afternoon), there might be a window Friday morning where the wind will stay down the longest. I’m not sure how much that will matter as winds are expected to get above 15 MPH, but I’d keep it in mind.
I’ve already heard a lot about the carnage from last year at this place. I don’t have the 6/6 percentage, but only 2 of the top 10 missed the cut and Rahm ejected Saturday to MDF. Of the top 15 in points on the week only 4 were greater than 5% owned on average. So, the carnage was more from a leaderboard perspective I think. All that probably means nothing for this week, unless you want to read into it and fade all the chalk.
Jordan Spieth $11,100 – Like I said on the pod we are splitting hairs up top here. These guys are the best in the world in a loaded field, but we have to take a stand somewhere. I’m on Jordan because he is hitting a lot of GIR and getting up and down at a good clip of late. If the putter can work a bit, then he should fair well here. He has 3 straight missed cuts here so the course history guys will be off him and I’m hoping to get him at the lowest ownership of the guys up top.
Henrik Stenson $8,800 – He is going to be popular, so if you fade him its only because of ownership. Stats line up probably better than anyone and he has the course history to back that.
Patrick Reed $8,700 – He has 4 top 10s in his last 4 starts including the win at The Masters. When the putter is working he is one of the best in the world.
Jon Rahm $9,300 – He went full tilt and fired 82 in his last competitive round at this course, which is pretty incredible. I expect him to be focused this week to try and avenge those demons. He has the approach game to be successful around here.
Bubba Watson $7,900 – He has never really had much success around here, even a couple years ago when he was playing his best. But at this price I’m willing to take a shot that he can turn that around.
Emiliano Grillo $7,500 – I’m probably going to eat quite a bit of chalk here, but that’s fine at this price. He finished 11th here last year and has 3 straight top 16s on tour.
Ian Poulter $7,800 – 2nd here last year and playing much better overall now.
Webb Simpson $7,300 – This price is just too low for his current form. The ball striking is there and the putter has been working.
Tommy Fleetwood $8,200 – He was so chalky last week that he missed the cut. I am hoping that people are still pissed and that he figured out how to hit an iron again.
Alexander Levy $7,000 – Has played very well of late on the Euro Tour. Too high on
my model to leave off.
Satoshi Kodaira 7,100 – He won the last time the tour was at a less than driver type of course. I hope people forget that.
Keegan Bradley $6,900 – Has made 2 straight cuts here and the price is low enough to take a shot.
Blayne Barber $6,500 – Florida born and finished 16th here last year.
So there you have it for The Players. The coverage is going to be great, much like a major, so we should be able to watch lots of shots. Per the usual hit me up with any questions or if I can be of any help.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods