2018 RBC Heritage PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! The Masters lived up to the hype. It was an epic weekend and I am on day 2 of a golf hangover. 9 of 13 picks made the cut, but none finished high enough to do some damage. For the year 73% of the picks have made the cut with 48% of the write ups having the winner. All time those figures are similar at 73% and 38% respectively.
This week we head south east of the Mecca to Hilton Head Island, GA for the RBC Heritage at Harbor Town Golf Links. The course is short at just under 7,100 and is a Pete Dye design. Accuracy is key here with tree lined, narrow fairways and coastal winds that usually whip up and swirl around. The course is a par 71 with 3 par 5s. Last year Wesley Bryan came from behind on the weekend to get his first PGA tour win. Other previous winners include Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2015), Matt Kuchar (2014) and Graeme McDowell (2013).
This is a typical Invitational Tour event with 132 starting with top 70 and ties making the cut. Pricing is super soft on DraftKings, which leads me to believe 6/6 is going to be super high or very low depending on if the chalk makes it. I’m not a huge fan of cash games in these scenarios, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of playing if that is your game.
Dustin Johnson $12,000 – He is sponsored by RBC, which is likely the only reason he is here. In a down year for the world #1, in stroke play, he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 and only has 1 finish outside the 10. He has only played here twice in 2008 and 09 where he missed the cut. If people are going to fade him because they don’t think he will care and he missed 2 cuts 10 years ago then it’s a great opportunity to grab a guy who could lap the field. Pricing is soft enough to fit him in very comfortably. Watch those Fanshare tags and projected ownership.
Luke List $8,900 – I’m not really sure how popular he will be since this course isn’t necessarily a fit for him. In his last 7 starts he hasn’t finished outside the top 26 and has hit about 70% GIR in his last 4 starts. I’ll hope he can bring a putter this week.
Withdrew DO NOT ROSTER Adam Hadwin $8,100 – I said Monday that he is my pick to win and I’m sticking with it. I do expect him to be popular this price, but if you get different enough elsewhere it shouldn’t matter much.
Emiliano Grillo $8,600 – He hasn’t missed a cut on tour since last August. Fresh off a 3rd in Houston, where his short game was on point.
Ian Poulter $9,300 – 4 straight cuts made here including 11th last year. This is a massive price hike from the last 4 weeks, but this field is the weakest in that time as well. I’m hoping people fade due to the price and thinking that he will be worn out. He is a grinder.
Zach Johnson $7,900 – Playing his usual consistent golf with no missed cuts since August. His course history isn’t that great, but he did finish 2nd here in 2012.
Francesco Molinari $7,500 – He is at the top of my model, which is weighted heavily for recent form and GIR, in particular. He hit the ball very well last week, but just couldn’t putt. Hoping he can putt half way decent this week.
Kevin Streelman $7,300 – 5 straight made cuts here but hasn’t played since 2015. I think he is underpriced in this field.
Bud Cauley $7,300 – He finished 9th here last year and is coming off 2 straight top 20s on tour. Especially when you compare to his odds to win he is a bad mis price by DK.
Sean O’Hair $7,300 – Sketchy course history but has played well of late with 2 top 15s in his last 3 starts.
Chris Kirk $7,100 – He missed the cut his last time out while hitting 86% GIR. I’ll take some chances at this price.
Lucas Glover $6,800 – stupid price.
Michael Thompson $6,900 – Terrible course history, but good recent form with 2 straight top 25s.
Andrew Landry $6,700 – 4 straight MC since he finished 2nd at the CareerBuilder. He hasn’t played since late February because of a baby (#nappyfactor). Let’s hope he comes back refreshed and at less than 1% owned.
So, there we have another 13 picks. Tread lightly with those last 2 gentlemen but I expect them to be next to not owned and they could make some waves in big GPPs. As is usual hit me up with any questions or if I can be of any help. My DMs on twitter are open.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods