2018 Safeway Open PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Tiger is baaaackkkkk and so am I. I’m no Tiger Woods, but I took a couple weeks off to kind of get over the burn out that is the PGA Tour season. For the 2017-18 season, which ended at the Dell for the picks, 72% made the cut and 41% of the time the winner was in there somewhere. Pretty close to the all-time averages of 72% and 38%, respectively.
The PGA Tour took one week off for the disaster that was the Ryder Cup (more about that on the @alwayspressdfs pod). The Safeway Open is the first tournament of the year. Napa, California is the location and Silverado Country Club’s North Couse has played host since 2014. Sang-Moon Bae won it in 2014, Emiliano Grillo won 2016’s edition and Brendan Steele is the 2-time defending champion. The course is short at about 7,200 yards and is a par 72 with your standard 4 par 5s and par 3s. It was redesigned by Johnny Miller, who has a house on the course and most likely gives free hindsight advice.
As of Tuesday morning, the weather looks good. There is some potential for winds to kick up both afternoons, with Thursday looking worse than Friday. So, a possible AM/PM tee advantage could be in play. Something to watch until lock.
Joaquin Niemann $10,300 – He is my favorite play up top, and I think he will win very soon. His best chance is during this fall swing when the fields are “weaker”, so I would stay on him even if he doesn’t play that well this week. He hasn’t played here before, but that’s basically true of his entire last season where he came in an earned his PGA card in his Rookie year.
Abraham Ancer $9,300 – He is coming off a great year that I hope he can parlay into a great fall swing. He is third in the field in SG T2G over the last 24 rounds and finished 37th here last year.
Harold Varner III $8,300 – He might be popular, but the price is just too low given his recent play and the field. I’ll have a bunch.
Chez Reavie $7,600 – I really like Chez at this price. This is a shorter golf course, which has translated into him making 4/4 cuts with 3 straight top 25s.
Corey Conners $6,700 – He check a lot of boxes for me this week and the price should keep his ownership very low.
Previous PGA Tour Regs
Brian Stuard $7,200 – He was borderline a core play, but his recent form is where I wish it was. He is high on some course history stuff I look at and his proximity numbers over the last 24 rounds are good as well. He should be low owned.
Andrew Landry $7,700 – He started to figure it out at the end of last season. His course history numbers are good.
Ted Potter Jr. $6,800 – West Coast Potter’s (new nickname that won’t catch on) price is low enough to take a shot or 2 with.
Lucas Glover $7,100 – Coming off a 2nd place finish on the web.com and checks the course history stats I look at even though he is 2/4 cuts made here.
David Hearn $6,800 – Another price play here. He finished 8thhis last time out at the Wyndham. 2 of 4 in cuts made here could keep a lot of people off him.
Cameron Champ $7,100 – You might already know about him, but he murders the ball. He has a lot of star potential, so even if you don’t play him this week keep an eye on him.
Dylan Frittelli $7,600 – He shouldn’t be very popular this weekat this price. Had a great finish to the Web.com season.
Josh Teater $6,400 – This is a homer play for me. He went to my alma mater and is from the area I live. He is a grinder who has played on the PGA tour before, but just earned his cardagain. Another guy to keep your eye on.
That is all for this week. Per the usual hit me up on twitter or in slack chat. Keep an eye on Fanshare, as I think this is a great week to avoid the chalk in some cases. @Bdentrek and I will have some more pods coming out soon, so be sure to check those out if for no other reason than to have some troll material, you know who you are.