2018 The Open Championship PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week 10 of 13 picks made the cut, but we didn’t have the winner and neither did anyone else. For the year 72% of the winners have made the cut and 41% of the writeups have had the winner.
On to why everyone is here and the 3rd major of the year. The Open Championship this year will be played at Carnoustie Golf Links in Scotland. It is a par 71 and plays around 7,400 yards. There are many course previews out there for free including a good one by @DFSJimmie on Fanshare, so check that out if you want a more in-depth course preview. From what I’ve gathered the course is going to play very fast tee to green. The fairways are wide and baked out with the greens running slower than the fairways according to David Duval. The course’s main defense is the wind, but at this point that doesn’t look to be a huge factor, so we could see lower than expected scores.
Speaking of the weather, there is usually an advantage to one tee time grouping at this event every year. This year could be the exception with the weather forecast, at this point, not looking very bad. There is a possibility of rain overnight Thursday into Friday morning, but winds look manageable. I’d continue to monitor the forecast up until lock and its never a bad idea to stack tee groupings just in case.
One big difference between this tournament and most of the rest during the year are the tee times. For Thursday and Friday all the groups go off 1 in groups of 3, so there are no 1 and 10 tee groups or split tee times with a morning and afternoon wave. Also, the cut here is top 70 and ties, and the field is set at 156 golfers.
On to the Picks!
Dustin Johnson $11,300 – Since DJ is the top price I think we can get him at less than expected ownership. He was the top price last year at $12,000 and was about 7% owned. With that said he is also the best golfer in the world, who is trending up in proximity and plays the “tougher” courses well. I’ll most likely have quite a few stars and scrubs teams that start with DJ.
Rory McIlroy $11,000 – Rory traditionally gets overlooked in PGA tour events on DK. He was sub 10% in his last 3 starts in the states. Obviously, we aren’t in the states this week, but this is way closer to a PGA tour event than Euro Tour. His T2G game is very good and I think his poor putting will be negated by the slow greens.
Brooks Koepka $9,200 – He has been top 6 in points in 4 of the last 8 majors. He just plays at a different level and knows how to grind it out. Love his all-around game and his ability to make birdies.
Francesco Molinari $8,600 – He is second on my model behind DJ and playing some of the best golf in the world right now. It’ll be interesting to see his ownership, but I’m not super worried with the names around him.
Ian Poulter $7,800 – I picked him to win on the pod last night as a non-favorite. I just think he is due and has shown the ability to grind and compete with the best in the world.
Tony FInau $7,200 – I think he will be chalky, but I’m willing to eat it and get different with some of the guys below 7K.
Patrick Cantlay $7,500 – He is too high on my model to ignore. He made the cut at the US Open at a higher price and only 12% ownership. He has never played in the Open, so I would be slightly cautious, but I do think he is worth a lineup or 2.
Jorge Campillo $7,200 – He is a Euro Tour player who has never played the Open. But he has top 10s in half his starts since February and only 1 missed cut.
Charley Hoffman $7,000 – He just shows up at Majors, usually at the top after round 1, which usually bodes well for made cuts. He did finish 20th at last years Open and made the cut in 2016.
Ryan Fox $6,900 – He is top of my model of the guys below $7,000.
Charles Howell III $6,700 – The price is too low for a guy who makes a lot of cuts and can grind.
Stewart Cink $6,600 – He is a past Open Champion who is trending upward.
Shaun Norris $6,300 – Super deep sleeper potential.
So, there you have the usual 13 from me. This will be an interesting week to see if the weather plays a factor and to see exactly how the course plays. Hit me up on twitter or in the SD Slack if you have any questions.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods