2018 Valero Texas Open PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! Last week 12 of the 13 picks made the cut, but we are now 3 straight weeks without a winner. That is the longest streak of the Tour year, so let’s try and get one this week. For the season 75% of the picks have made the cut and 45% of the writeups have had the winner.
On to this week and the Valero Texas Open, which is played at AT&T Oaks in San Antonio, Texas. The course is over 7,400 yards at a standard par 72. Last year Kevin Chappell drained a long putt on the last hole to hold off a charging Brooks Koepka by one shot (side note: I miss Brooks). Other winners include Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Steven Bowditch aka Bowdo (2014), and Martin Laird (2013).
Since we are back in Texas I think it is important to mention the weather. Of course, I always do, but this week the wind will be up. At this point I think it’s possible that late/early could have an advantage. Winds look like they will be the worst of the 2 days starting about mid-morning on Friday. There isn’t a huge difference on Thursday right now. I’d watch it and stack the tee time you think gets in an advantage in at least one lineup and if you are deciding between 2 or more guys then the tee draw might be the tie breaker you need.
Side note: I’ve started writing a weekly hindsight article for @FanShareSports. I’ll be talking about ownership from the previous week and how/why people landed on them. This week it is free and can be found here: https://www.fansharesports.com/golf/blog/48. If you have any suggestions to format or guys on a weekly basis you want me to analyze ownership wise, then hit me up.
We do have a full field of 156 golfers with standard top 70 and ties cut this week. We also have a weak field compared to what we were looking at before The Masters. I think it’s a great week to go contrarian. As I write this on Tuesday afternoon Luke List appears to be the chalk of the chalk. I’m a fan of him, but if he is going to be the highest owned on the week then I’ll probably have less than the field. I have seen this play out where everyone thinks a player will be chalky but then he comes in less than expected. So just a side note there as I’m not going to list Luke below in the picks. We also have reached the balanced lineup segment of the year. I think over the next couple of weeks we will see balance out perform Stars and Scrubs. This is liable to be a weird week so if you scale back your amount in play I wouldn’t blame you.
Sergio Garcia $12,000 – He is the DJ of last week. Not saying he is as good, but Sergio is obviously the best pedigree player in this field. He does need to at least top 5 to pay off this price, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he does. With that said I thought DJ would be low owned last week and he wasn’t, but Sergio had a very public MC his last time out at The Masters, so it’ll be interesting to see where he comes in. I do think he is a great large field GPP play.
Adam Scott $9,600 – He is a past champion here from 2011 and this is a pretty good price in this field. Aussies have traditionally done well here. As you probably know the putter is the issue, but if Billy Ho can figure it out then Adam can at some point.
Brandt Snedeker $9,000 – He finished 23rd last week, but again had a trash weekend. Eventually he is going to get it going on the weekend and stay in contention. Another great price in this field.
Brendan Steele $8,900 – Before the Masters he was churning out good finishes. Not sure what happened there besides he couldn’t get up and down. I’ll ignore that, and hope others don’t.
Keegan Bradley $7,900 – He missed the cut here last year but did have a top 10 back in 2011. His putter has been better recently and he is a great ball striker.
Pat Perez $8,400 – He has 3 top 20s in his last 3 starts here. I’m not sure how highly owned he will be, but at his point he doesn’t have a high tag count, although I expect that to rise. Either way I’m a big fan this week at this price.
Beau Hossler $8,100 – I told myself at Houston that I wouldn’t fade him in Texas again. Last week’s T16 is good enough to make the list. I’m not a huge fan, but I think he deserves to be on a couple lineups just in case.
Chesson Hadley $8,500 – Coming off a top 10 last week, finished top 20 in Houston and has a top 4 here in 2015. He might be slight chalk, but I still like him.
Keith Mitchell $7,400 – He was a late add into last week’s field after a WD. He finished T55 but had 2 straight top 10s before that including 6th in Houston. He won’t be well known among those outside the PGA DFS twitter circle so he shouldn’t very highly owned.
JT Poston $7,300 – 19th in Puerto Rico 3 weeks ago and finished 27th here last year. Should be low owned.
Tom Lovelady $7,100 – He has never played here but has 2 straight made cuts on tour. Bomber who has been hitting his irons well of late.
Brice Garnett $7,200 – Won in PR a couple weeks ago. He MC in Houston but bounced back with a T42 last week.
Denny McCarthy $6,900 – I won’t go below $7K much, but if I do he will be my guy.
Again lucky 13 picks for the week. Like I said above this is liable to be a wild week especially if the wind kicks up precut. As always hit me up on twitter or in the Sports Degens Slack chat (send me your email and I’ll invite, lots of basketball and baseball talk in there nightly too, for FREE).
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods