2018 Valspar Championship PGA DFS Preview
Hello Degens! What a golf tournament in Mexico. I thought we were going to get a winner in either super low owned Hatton or Thomas, but Mickelson’s putter continued to be fire and he was able to pull it out in a playoff. 5 of the 7 picks finished inside the top ten with 3 of 7 inside the top five. No cut so that stat doesn’t change, but for the year we have had the winner in the picks 58% of the time.
Back to America and the Valspar Championship. This tournament is played at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, which is in Palm Harbor, Florida. It’s a par 71 with 4 par 5s and 5 par 3s, that plays over 7,300 yards. This is a traditionally difficult golf course, but last year Adam Hadwin fired -14 for the week to take the trophy. Charl Schwartzel was the 2016 champ at -7 and Jordan Spieth won in 2015 at -10. The course isn’t super dangerous off the tee, but more so on approach and around the green. So much like last year, I am looking for guys who hit a lot of GIR, and scramble and putt well.
Weather this week is likely to be an issue. As of Tuesday morning, the forecast calls for winds to pick up in the afternoon on Thursday, with rain on Sunday. The days in between will be cool temp wise, but low winds. This could lead to a bit of an advantage for guys who go out early on Thursday. Keep an eye on it.
Last week I was able to nail ownership for a couple guys. Patterns are easy to spot sometimes in PGA DFS. Pricing recently has been sharp, which usually leads to more balanced lineups. Initially this week I thought that pattern would continue with Spieth going under owned. However, I have heard quite a bit of buzz about him this week and so I’m not sure where his ownership will be this week. Keep an eye on those Fanshare tags. If you aren’t subscribing to their site, you really are doing yourself a disservice.
Let’s see if we can paint a winning week.
Henrik Stenson $10,200 – A lot of who I end up going with at the top will come down to ownership. If Spieth isn’t going to be very highly owned I will likely play him. Rory will most definitely be low owned, so he presents an interesting opportunity in large GPPs. Stenson is my top pick at this point. He has finished 7th, 11th and 4th here the last 3 years. We all know about the 3 wood that he can bomb and is likely why he has played here well. If you are playing cash I like starting with him.
Paul Casey $9,800 – He was uber chalk last week and didn’t go above and beyond so I expect his ownership to see a dip this week, especially since he has missed the cut the last 2 years here. The guy has to break through at some point with a win, doesn’t he?
Adam Hadwin $8,800 – He has the defending champ narrative which should lead him to be low owned than what people think. He has been trending very well form wise with some excellent weekend play in his last 2 starts, which have led to two top 10’s.
Byeong Hun-An $8,400 – He is number one on my model, which is odd to me, but I’ll go with it. 49th here last year but coming off 4 straight made cuts with 2 top 10s including 2 weeks ago at the Honda where he finished 5th.
Luke List $7,800 – Coming off the playoff loss to JT at the Honda, where I think he shocked most everyone with his stellar play. Finished 27th here last year.
Kevin Streelman $7,500 – Past champion here, who I expect to be popular, but I’ll still have him everywhere.
Louis Oosthuizen $8,100 – He faltered last weekend after a hot start. I do like the form he flashed during the first couple rounds. He is coming off a 24th at the Honda and finished top 10 here 2 years ago.
Chez Reavie $7,900 – Couple of top 30s here in the last 2 years. His last 2 tournaments have been blah, so I’m hoping he is lower owned. His accuracy off the tee should be a huge plus this week.
Jason Kokrak $7,700 – Sketchy course history, but I think he is worth a lineup or 2 with his birdie potential.
Charley Hoffmann $7,300 – Good price for a guy of his caliber.
Lucas Glover $7,300 – He is typically a grinder who can make the cut here.
Keegan Bradley $7,000 – He is hitting a lot of GIR and FIR, hoping he can bring some semblance of a putter, so I will put him on a couple teams.
Hudson Swafford $6,800 – Only guy I will consider below $7K.
So that’s it for this week. I expect 6/6 to be low this week, so I would blame you if you are just trying to get 6 through with a more balanced lineup. I do think one of the higher priced guys wins, so I’m not sure how well a fade of those guys does in big GPPs. Per the usual hit me up with question, DMs on twitter are open and I will be in slack chat during the day leading up to lock.
– Jesse @DFSGolfGods