College Basketball Betting Advice
It’s finally college basketball season! Something I have been waiting for the past couple months. As you can probably assume, I am a huge CBB fan. It’s my favorite sport and the one I am most invested in. Just check my twitter handle the next couple months @j_coop131. Most of my free time now will be focused on college hoops rather than NFL. I still will be invested in NFL just not nearly as much as CBB. We finally got college daily fantasy sports back in some states which is awesome, but for the purpose of this article I want to touch on college hoops from a betting perspective.
Maybe I’m just a degenerate(I probably am), but the thing I love about college hoops so much is we pretty much have games every day until April which is awesome. For someone who loves betting sports casually this is awesome. I’m not going to sit here and say I’m an all world college hoops handicapper because I’m not, but what I will say is my knowledge for the sport is immensely high and the diversity of games I watch is quite high. I’m not just watching Duke UNC, I’m also watching your mid majors nobody cares about. I can assure you I will be betting some games the casual fan has no interest in, but the thing I love about CBB is with all the teams and conferences to follow it’s a great sport to get invested in. Now with betting, I’ve found myself to play it easy early on and get a feel for teams. Watch a lot of games, check ken pom and other advanced metric sites, just really trying to see how all these teams adjust to the yearly roster turnover. Figure out who’s over and under rated. Then when conference play rolls around I feel like I’m prepared for success or at least increasing my chances because I’m not just blindly betting games early season just to bet them. Obviously it’s close to impossible to follow all 351 teams closely and really know and I realize that. I generally try and follow a bunch of conferences hard to dial in on their games. Rather than try and follow all 351 teams I find myself investing in the conferences I like watching and betting their games more. This is just my approach and yeah I will be placing bets on games of conferences I am not closely following, but for the most part I’m dialed in on a group of them.
The next thing I find important is staying away from big spreads, mainly in the non conference. I will rarely bet the games where the spread is 20+ points. There’s just so much uncertainty. Some games the top teams will bring in the bench players half way into the second half up 35 and they blow the cover, and vice versa. There will always be exceptions to me possibly liking a big spread, but I’d just rather avoid these games in general. It’s so tough to predict if a coach is going to value rest or getting his starters more court time with each other. With so many games each night I almost am certainly to like something else or just stay away. I hate having to depend on a coaches decision when I’m trying to cover a spread. Obviously a game could be close with a large spread, but from a theoretical perspective if a game is going to be decided by 20+ points the chances of covering are going to be better when the starters play longer, this is just something super hard to predict with teams in blowouts.
Something that I find to be extremely important that is just plain and simple is offensive and defensive efficiencies. I hate betting teams who can’t score. Yeah I get the whole defense can keep you in games argument, but when you struggle to score it’s super easy to blow covers late in games as both favorites and dogs. A lot of spreads with basketball in general often come down to the last few minutes and the big thing with that is offensive execution. I always feel better knowing a team can score when they need to. Of course, it doesn’t always go your way, but me personally. This might sound like odd advice, but once I have actual games to discuss this logic with it will make so much more sense. My point isn’t I want to just bet offensive teams because it’s not, defense is uber important, but to an extent. Having a defense like Virginia generally has is huge, but once you fall out of the elite tier the only key is just be average. Once you get out of the elite tiers of defense, your offense better be good and to my point earlier you better be able to score late in games when spreads are covered and lost.
Finally the last thing I just want to touch on is I plan to try and do write ups for a lot of my picks this season and track them all year. When I don’t have time for write ups, I will tweet my picks out from my twitter @j_coop131. I hope this little article is helpful and that we can all have a good season attacking college hoops betting and in daily fantasy too.