Fantasy Football Start or Sit – Proof of Concept Week 4
By: Matt Bishop
@Bishphat on Twitter
This is not an exact science. All we have to go by is historical data and recency bias to determine who may or may not be a good play in DFS. While these are only recommendations, these are recommendations that I will swear by and am using in all my lineups this week.
ELI MANNING, QB New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints have allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL this season to opposing quarterbacks (32.2 per game) and they will face off against the Giants this week. The Saints secondary has 2 defensive backs that currently rank in the Top 5 highest QB rating allowed in the NFL. Ken Crawley (158.3 QB Rating Allowed) will line up across from Cody Latimer, while Marshon Lattimore (146.5 QB Rating Allowed) will face off against Odell Beckham, Jr. Eli Manning should feast this week.
GIOVANI BERNARD, RB Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons Defense is terrible against pass catching running backs, allowing 20 fantasy points to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2 and 26 fantasy points to Alvin Kamara in Week 3. On top of that, in 2017, they allowed the most targets (139)and receptions (110) against pass catching running backs and allowed the 4th most receiving yards (814). This is a dream matchup for Gio, who should be involved early and often.
EZEKIEL ELLIOT, RB Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Ezekiel Elliot is not known for having great hands or receiving skills. In 2016, Ezekiel Elliot ran 265 routes as a receiver (17.6 Routes per Game) and was targeted 2.6 times per game. In 2017, Elliot ran 267 routes in 10 total games (26.7 Routes per Game) and was targeted 3.8 times per game. In 2018, Elliot has run 76 routes (25.3 Routes per Game) and has been targeted 6.0 times per game. He is also currently 9th in the NFL in total touches. The Lions defense is currently allowing 26.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is 3rd most the NFL. While many are fading Elliot in season long fantasy and defense due to the recent struggles of the offense, this added production in the passing game will only increase his stock. He should be in for a big day on Sunday.
ODELL BECKHAM JR, WR New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
The Giants position players should have a field day in this one, as the Saints secondary is allowing 47.3 fantasy points per game to opposing Wide Receivers, which is the most in the league. Beckham will square off against Marshon Lattimore, who is currently allowing a 146.5 QB rating this season, which is the 4th highest in the league. Expect a huge day from Beckham.
JARVIS LANDRY, WR Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are bad and they are currently giving up 33.4 Fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, which is the 4th most in the NFL. Landry has lined up in the slot on 73% of his snaps this season and Oakland is currently ranked 28th against opposing slot receivers. Landry has been targeted 37 times in 3 games and is averaging 12.3 targets per game. He should have a big day against a porous Oakland secondary.
STERLING SHEPARD, WR New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Sterling Shepard has lined up in the slot on 67% of his snaps this season. 15 of his 18 total targets have been from the slot position and he is being targeted on 18.8% of his snaps from the slot, which is 8th highest in the NFL. The New Orleans Saints currently rank 10th against slot receivers, but he should be able to find some space in this one. Expect all skill positions to have a big day in this one.
JONNU SMITH, TE Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I am probably going to die on this Jonnu Smith hill alone. I continue to see potential in this big, athletic Tight End and have started him in DFS on numerous occasions since Delanie Walker went down. Marcus Mariotta comes in healthier this week and appears to have regained some feeling in his hand and elbow. While they may not take a lot of shots downfield, they may sprinkle a few in the gameplan. And if Mariotta can’t go deep, who is he going to dump it off to? Jonnu Smith. Philly is pretty solid against Tight Ends, but I have a feeling he may be busy in this one. Or he may just have another 0 catch day. This is a bad call, but I’m sticking with it.
TYLER BOYD, WR Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
10.9 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS
Tyler Boyd has lined up in the slot on 67% of his snaps this season. The Falcons Defense is currently ranked 31st against opposing slot receivers and their entire defense is banged up, with 3 of their starters out for the season. Boyd is a budding superstar in this league and should be busy in this one. Boyd is my favorite WR this week and I think he will exceed 100 total yards and 1 touchdown.
DEFENSE / DST
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, DST VS. Houston Texans
The Colts defense is allowing 13.6 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is the 8th best mark in the NFL. They are also allowing 13.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, which is the best in the NFL. 2nd year defensive back Kenny Moore II has been targeted 15 times for 9 receptions and 70 yards with 1 interception. That is good for a QB rating allowed of 43.8, which is the 3rd best QB rating allowed in the NFL. This secondary may have their hands full with Will Fuller and Deandre Hopkins, but the Texans offensive line is one of the worst O-lines we have seen in recent memory and Deshaun Watson will have no time to throw, as usual. The Texans offensive line has allowed 56 total pressures this season, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. They are also the 2nd worst line in terms of efficiency in the NFL. The Colts defense may be in for a big day against a Texans offense that is yet to get it going.
LAST WEEKS RESULTS
I did not finish in the money, but not a bad result:
- •15th out of 44
- •458th out of 1,600
- •5th out of 8