Fantasy Football Start or Sit Week 3
START OR SIT: PROOF OF CONCEPT WEEK 3
Sometimes, it doesn’t hurt to think out your DFS lineup throughout the week, instead of cramming it in on Sunday 30 minutes before kickoff. We are all guilty of setting our lineups 5 minutes before the 1 PM deadline, but does taking time to set your DFS lineup really matter and give you an edge? I doubt there is any published research out there that proves it, but I think it does and there is a pile of good data listed below to back this claim up. Here are my DFS Start or Sit Week 3 Recommendations and the lineup that I am using with all entries this weekend:
JIMMY GAROFOLO, QB San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s Defense has had a rough 2 weeks and haven’t stopped anyone. This San Fran offense is off to a very slow start and their passing game barely has a pulse:
• 28 Targets to Wide Receivers (32nd in NFL)
• 57 Total Team Targets (29th in NFL)
George Kittle is leading this team with 13 targets and no wide receiver on this offense has more than 10. The 49ers will see the 2-0 Chiefs this weekend in Kansas City. This game should be an offensive shootout with very little defense. KC is coming in just having surrendered 35 Fantasy Points to Phillip Rivers (34-51, 424 3 TD) and 46 Fantasy Points to Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger (39-60 452 3 TDs) and are averaging 34.0 Fantasy Points to opposing quarterbacks. Last year, they allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, to the tune of 17.0 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs pass rush (26th), run defense (31st) and secondary (28th) do not even crack the top 25 worst in the league. This should be a shoot-out. Roll with Jimmy GQ.
ALVIN KAMARA, RB New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
If there was ever a time to pay the money for Kamara, it would be this week. Atlanta Falcons 2017 Defense against Pass Catching Running Backs:
• 139 Targets Allowed (Most in NFL)
• 110 Receptions Allowed (Most in NFL)
• 814 Receiving Yards (4th Most in NFL)
• 4 Receiving TDs (10th Most in NFL)
Alvin Kamara is a better pass catcher than he is a bellcow running back. Christian McCaffrey, who is the same mold of running back, hauled in 14 passes on 15 targets for 102 yards and 20 total fantasy points in Week 2 against the Falcons Defense. This is a pristine matchup for Kamara’s skill set and he should be featured early and often. But you already knew that.
JORDAN HOWARD, RB Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals appear to be the worst team in the NFL and it’s only week 3. They continue to keep David Johnson in the backfield and not allow him to run routes, which was mainly the contributor to his successful 2016 campaign. Their defense was considered to be a Top 10 unit coming into the season, but has largely disappointed thus far. Through 2 games in 2018, they have allowed a total of 76 Fantasy Points to opposing running backs, which is 38.0 Fantasy Points per Game and good for most in the league. They allowed 24 Fantasy Points to ageless wonder Adrian Peterson in Week 1 and 30 Fantasy Points to All-Planet Running Back Todd Gurley in Week 2. We know the Rams offense is good, but the Jury is still out on the Washington Redskins. Jordan Howard continues to be a big part of this Chicago Bears offense and has seen 72% of the Bears offensive snaps this season, which is 10th most among running backs this season. The Cardinals defense was pretty solid last season against the run, allowing only 15.6 points to opposing running backs, which was 4th least in the league, but Howard should find room in this one.
MARQUISE GOODWIN, WR San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
(QUESTIONABLE: ALTERNATE LISTED BELOW)
Here is another Rule of Thumb: Always start Wide Receivers against the Chiefs Defense. 2017 Kansas City Chiefs Defense Against Opposing Receivers:
• 363 Targets Against (1st most in NFL)
• 208 Receptions Against (3rd most in NFL)
• 2,836 Yards Allowed (2nd most in NFL)
• 18 TDs Allowed (3rd most in NFL)
• 24.5 Fantasy Points Per Game (2nd most in NFL)
2018 Kansas City Chiefs Defense Against Opposing Receivers:
• 70 Targets Against (3rd most in NFL)
• 40 Receptions Against (3rd most in NFL)
• 414 Yards Against (8th most in NFL)
• 4 TDs allowed (4th most in NFL)
• 32.9 Fantasy Points per Game (4th most in NFL)
Goodwin was inactive in Week 2 and is currently questionable, but he was limited in practice this week and I think he should give it a go. This is a perfect matchup to get his season started on the right foot. Goodwin was a target monster last season after the arrival of Jimmy GQ in San Fran, averaging 9.7 targets per game from Week 12 to Week 15. Start anyone and everyone against the Chiefs secondary always.
ALLEN ROBINSON, WR Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Allen Robinson has been targeted 21 times in the Chicago Bears offense, which is 10th most in the league. Robinson owns 53.08% of the Bears total air yards, which is 3rd in the NFL, only behind Julio Jones and Odell Beckham, Jr. He owns a 31% target share of the Bears total targets and a 52% target share amongst all Chicago Bears Wide Receivers. He is getting opportunities and being heavily featured in this offense. The Cardinals are bad and Robinson should continue to be targeted in this one.
KEELAN COLE, WR Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
There was clearly an imposter last week in Jacksonville as someone posing as Blake Bortles threw for 376 Yards and 4 TDs, good for 43 Fantasy Points. Flake Fortles, as we will call this imposter, has targeted Keelan Cole (12 Total Targets) and Dede Westbrook (11 Total Targets) on 56% of the total Wide Receiver targets this season and they should continue to get a similar workload in Week 3 at home against the Titans. 2017 Tennessee Titans Defense Against Opposing Wide Receivers:
• 329 Targets Allowed (7th most in NFL)
• 193 Receptions Against (9th most in NFL)
• 17 TDs Allowed (5th most in NFL)
• 20.9 Fantasy Points Allowed per Game (12th most in NFL)
2018 Tennessee Titans Defense Against Opposing Wide Receivers:
• 33 Receptions Allowed (9th most in NFL)
• 469 Yards Allowed (4th most in NFL)
• 4 TDs Allowed (2nd in NFL)
• 38.8 Fantasy Points Allowed per Game (2nd most in NFL)
I like Westbrook more this week. Dede Westbrook has run 77% of his snaps out of the slot and the Titans defense ranked 17th last season against slot receivers. I think you could probably start both Westbrook or Cole Week 3.
SAMMY WATKINS, WR Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
No coaching staff has been able to get Sammy Watkins going. Watkins is almost considered a journeyman with elite level talent that still hasn’t found the proper fit. But we saw something in Sammy Watkins in Week 2 against the Steelers where he flashed his long awaited potential, hauling in 6 balls on 7 targets for 100 yards and 20 fantasy points. He is running 38% of his snaps out of the slot this season, but has never lined up for more than 25% of his snaps in the slot throughout his career. The 49ers 2018 Defense Against Opposing Wide Receivers:
• 53 Targets Against (5th most in NFL)
• 415 Yard Allowed (7th most in NFL)
• 30.6 Fantasy Points per Game (9th most in NFL)
He is currently on the field for 86% of the Chiefs offensive snaps, while Tyreek Hill only sees 80% of the snaps. If his slot usage continues to trend upward, it is only a matter of time before he breaks out.
GEORGE KITTLE, TE San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
George Kittle is quietly becoming Jimmy Garopolo’s favorite target. He has seen more targets this season than any wide receiver on the 49ers and really produced Week 1 to the tune of 5 receptions on 9 targets for 90 yards and 11 Fantasy Points. The Kansas City Chiefs Defense is currently getting abused against opposing Tight Ends:
• 12 Receptions Allowed (8th most in NFL)
• 201 Receiving Yards Allowed (3rd most in NFL)
• 14.1 Fantasy Points Per Game (2nd most in NFL)
He was held in check Week 2 against the Detroit Lions, who tend to play opposing Tight Ends pretty well. He should find plenty of holes in the middle of the field against a defense who allowed 23 Fantasy Points last week to Jesse James and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who do not tend to target their Tight Ends very often.
COREY CLEMENT, RB Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
(QUESTIONABLE, BUT EXPECTED TO PLAY)
Corey Clement is a big dude and one you would think of as a bruiser, but he continues to show great athleticism and an ability to find the hole. He has the size to wear down a defense and possesses the footwork to avoid defenders. They will face the Colts at home Week 3. In 2017, the Colts allowed 319.80 Total Fantasy Points, or 20.0 Fantasy Points to opposing running backs, which was the 7th most in the NFL. They allowed the 7th most yards (1,682) and the 7th most rushing TDs (12) to opposing running backs. He should thrive this week.
DALLAS COWBOYS DST @ Seattle Seahawks
The Chicago Bears pummeled the Seattle Seahawks at home in Week 2, forcing 6 sacks, a fumble and a pick 6. The Seahawks line is not good and will continue to struggle. Demarcus Lawrence, Left DE, has 12 total pressures through 2 games for this Cowboys Defense, which is 3rd in the NFL and this defense should be able to get at Russell Wilson a lot in Week 3. They’re only $2,200 on Draftkings, so may be worth the shot.
RESULTS FROM WEEK 2:
Great call on Jonnu Smith by me. I threw up 3 stinkers, but 4 massive performances, which only helped me place in the money in 1 contest. Results from contests with this lineup:
• • 1st out of 9 ($81)
• • 5th out of 35
• • 27th out of 689