Fantasy Football Week 5 Start or Sit
We’ve all been there. You are looking at your players and setting your lineup when you realize that every one of your players has a juicy matchup and your fantasy team may be in for a massive scoring week. Of course this never pans out and the 200 fantasy points that you projected for your team always turns into 90 points or so. But that’s not important. What is most important is that we currently live in a time where degenerate gamblers and recreational fantasy players alike are able to spot these tasty matchups and put some skin in the game through DFS platforms.
This first lineup you are about to see is actually one of my fantasy teams that I thought was too good to be true, so I had to take a shot on DraftKings. People are hesitant about starting Kirk Cousins against the Philadelphia Eagles defense, but hear me out. The Eagles are dominant against the run, allowing 9.7 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, which is the 2nd best mark in the NFL. However, they are currently allowing 20.8 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is the 11th most in the NFL. With Dalvin Cook on a snap count and the Minnesota O-line allowing the most pressures in the NFL, the Vikings can’t run the ball and they most likely won’t try. They showed last Thursday against an elite Rams secondary that they can be effective through the air when they attack. Look for them to abandon the run in this one and lean heavily on the air attack. The Eagles may take Adam Thielen away, but I expect Stefon Diggs to have a big day against Jalen Mills, who can’t stop anyone this season.
Now here is my lineup that I am using in most of my action this week:
MATTHEW STAFFORD, QB DETROIT LIONS vs. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers Defense has actually been solid against opposing Quarterbacks, allowing 16.6 fantasy points per game which is the 14th best mark in the NFL this season. The problem is they haven’t played anyone, with the exception of Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings. The have squared off against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (14 fantasy points allowed), Alex Smith and the Redskins (25 fantasy points allowed) and Josh Allen and the Bills (4 Fantasy Points Allowed). That should change this week when they play the Lions in Detroit. The Lions have been embarrassed of late and are looking for redemption. Golden Tate is averaging 11 targets per game this season and has been incredibly productive through the first 4 weeks. Kenny Golladay is a big bodied deep threat, which Matthew Stafford so desperately needs to spark this offense. Expect a big day from Stafford.
MATT BREIDA: RB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS vs Arizona Cardinals
Matt Breida played 63% of the total offensive snaps in Week 4, which was up from 53% in Week 3 and 39% in Week 2. He also received 71% of the running back touches in Week 4 and is running more routes in the passing game. CJ Beathard has a history of dumping it off to his running back and Breida may see his target share drastically increase in this one. He is also averaging 7.6 yards per carry, which is 1stin the NFL. The Arizona Cardinals are allowing 31.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is the most in the NFL and 520 total rush yards to opposing running backs, which is 2nd most in the league. He could be a great flex option this week and should exceed his projected point total by a bunch.
JAMES CONNER: RB, PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Atlanta Falcons
It’s really no secret by now. The Atlanta Falcons Defense is terrible against pass catching running backs, allowing 310 receiving yards this season, which is 4thmost in the NFL. They also have the most targets against (55) and receptions allowed (42) in the NFL. James Conner is being targeted 5.5 times per game this season and continues to be heavily involved in this offense while Le’Veon Bell is away. He should be in for a big day on Sunday.
KEENAN ALLEN: WR, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders are allowing 30.2 fantasy points per game this season to opposing Wide Receivers, which is the 5th most allowed in the NFL. Keenan Allenhas lined up in the slot on 56% of his snaps this season and has been targeted on 19% of those snaps. Oakland is currently ranked 31st in the NFL against slot receivers and Allen should be in store for a bounce back game after only registering 10 catches for 107 yards in his last 2 outings. Allen should be in for a big day.
TYLER BOYD: WR, CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. Miami Dolphins
What has been a relative surprise this NFL season is that the Miami Secondary has been good, producing 2 cover corners who are only allowing 21.4 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, which is the 8th lowest mark in the league. The only flaw on their resume is the 38 points allowed in Week 4 to Tom Brady and a fired up Patriots team. That was coming and we all saw it. Xavien Howard will be lining up across from AJ Green this week, which will leave Tyler Boyd to man the slot and find room all day. He is averaging 10.3 targets per game in his last 3 outings and appears to be a large part of this passing attack going forward. If you were able to grab him on the waiver wire in the last few weeks, you have won the waiver wire for the season, because he will be an elite option from here on out. Start him with confidence.
JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER: WR, PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Atlanta Falcons
Juju Smith-Schuster is running almost 86% of his snaps from this slot this season and will continue to man the slot this week against a porous Atlanta Falcons defense. Brian Poole has covered 116 routes in the slot this season. He has been targeted 21 times resulting in 17 catches for 156 yards and 3 scores: 137.2 QB Rating allowed. Atlanta is allowing 29.0 fantasy points per game to opposing Wide Receivers this season, which is the 8th highest mark in the NFL. Roethlisberger is home this week and coming off a tough 17 point performance Week 4 to the Ravens. He should air it out this week and Juju should be an offensive focal point this week.
RICKY SEALS-JONES: TE, ARIZONA CARDINALS @ San Francisco 49ers
If you haven’t been paying attention, the Tight End position is currently in a state of despair, but there is no reason to pay up for it in DFS. Find volume where you can. Ricky Seals-Jones has run the second most receiving routes of all players on his team this season (114 routes run) and is second on his team only to Chad Williams (whoever that is), who has 116 routes run. Rookie Quarterbacks tend to have soft spots for big athletic tight ends and Rosen might make Seals-Jones his comfort blanket. He is only being targeted 4.7 times per game, but with the reigns handed over to Rosen, this might be bound to change quickly. The 49ers defense is allowing 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends, which is 5th most in the NFL and have allowed 4 TDs, which is tied for 1st in the league. He has potential for 50 total yards and 1 TD.
AARON JONES: RB, GREEN BAY PACKERS @ Detroit Lions
This should be the game where Aaron Jones takes over primary backfield duties in Green Bay with Jamaal Williams being completely ineffective in both the run and pass game. Jones is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, to Williams 3.4 YPC. Jones has already avoided 8 tackles, while Williams has 0. Jones is clearly the more elusive back, but this won’t be a time share. The Detroit Lions are allowing 28.2 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, which is 3rd most in the league and 624 rushing yards, which is the most in the NFL, by 100 total yards. This could be his coming out party.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ Cleveland Browns
The Baltimore Ravens Defense is allowing 12.4 Fantasy points per Game to opposing QBs this season, which is the 3rd lowest total in the NFL. Baker Mayfieldis still learning this offense and while he appears to be the solidified starter for this franchise going forward, this Ravens defense will be a tough matchup for a rookie quarterback. The Ravens defense is also only allowing 10.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is the 3rd lowest mark in the league. While Carlos Hyde is currently leading the league is rushing attempts with 83 carries, he currently ranks 26th in the NFL with 3.4 yards per carry. Expect a big day from this Ravens secondary and this defensive line.
WEEK 4 RESULTS
Still no money, but I’ll keep grinding until I don’t have to introduce myself anymore:
- •1,713th out of 5,900
- •4,017th out of 14,900
- •12th out of 29
- •13th out of 28
- •5th out of 9