Welcome NASCAR degens! We’ve finally made it to Homestead for the finale and the Championship 4. Last week we saw Matt Kenseth in victory lane for what could be his ride off into the sunset. We had fireworks between Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin that leaves Denny on the outside looking in for a championship this weekend. I personally expected more out of Harvick last week and he just didn’t have it. I think him and Brad Keselowski have an uphill battle to beat Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Let’s get into the analysis for the last race of the season.
Martin Truex Jr $11,100: Has been the best all year but the margin has closed during the Chase. Homestead has not been nice to him in the recent years. After three straight T6, he hasn’t had a finish inside the T10 in his L3. Shouldn’t keep you away as this has seemed like it’s Truex’s year all season. I was also pleasantly surprised with the drop in price from last week.
Kyle Busch $10,500: Truex is the favorite but has proven he’s not far behind. Career numbers aren’t great at Homestead but he’s been really good in recent years. He has 4 T10 in the L5 including a win in 2015. I expect Sunday to be similar to most of the Chase with Truex and Busch battling most of the day and both up front at the end to determine the series champion.
Kevin Harvick $9,700: Didn’t expect Harvick to be priced below Keselowski here. In his L9 races at Homestead, he doesn’t have a finish outside of the T10. In those 9 races, he has 6 T3s with a victory in 2014. If you want to be different and avoid the two clear favorites, Harvick has to be at the top.
Brad Keselowski $9,900: Anything is possible in a one race shootout. But it will take some luck (good for Brad or bad for the other three) or a gamble in race strategy for Keselowski to win the championship. He hasn’t had the car to contend all year and he’s been vocal about that. Has been solid at Homestead outside of his 35th place finish last year. If you want to be really unique and feel bold, building with Kes at the top is the clear way to go.
Erik Jones $8,100: Coming off of a great run at Phoenix that had him finishing 3rd. He’s closing his rookie season strong and another solid run could be in order. Has been decent at intermediates this year with T10 finishes in 4 of the L7.
Kurt Busch $8,300: Has alternated finishes inside the T10 and outside the T20 in his L4 races this year and I’m expecting the T10 this week. At Homestead, he has 4 finishes inside T13 in the L5. I’m not expecting a run for the win, but a solid race inside the T10 would be respectable.
Jamie McMurray $7,700: I’ve been on McMurray a few times this year but not much because he’s normally priced really well. I think he’s underpriced this week and I’ll take jump on. In his L3 Homestead races, he’s averaging a 7.6 finish with a +11 place differential.
Paul Menard : Has ran decently at Homestead with 5 T20s in his L7, including a 4th place finish three years ago. A mid pack run can be expected for Sunday with a T15 not out of the question.
Aric Almirola : He’d like to forget his last two races here as he finished 40th and 41st. Prior to that he had four straight T20s with two T10s. He has found speed recently at the 1.5 mile tracks too. Potential is there with some risk.
I hope everyone enjoyed the season and found the weekly write ups useful, albeit follow or fade some weeks. Thanks to the fellas at Sports Degens for the opportunity. I enjoyed it and hope I helped you all have a profitable season.
Boogity boogity boogity boys! Let’s crown a champion!!
*Weekly disclaimer: This was written before qualifying. Be sure to make note of any car/engine changes and qualifying position as value may change once starting position is established