Hello NASCAR degens! Another wild ride at Talladega last week made for a pretty exciting race. Brad Keselowski came out on top and stamped his ticket into the next stage of the Chase. Dale Jr looked like he had nine lives with all of the wrecks he avoided but didn’t have the speed to contest for the W in the shootout.
This week should be much more calm but with this week being an elimination race, I’m not so sure. We have some guys on the outside looking in that could take some risks and do what it takes to make it to the next stage. Let’s get into it for Kansas.
*This was written post qualifying. Analysis will reflect practice and qualifying results.
Martin Truex Jr. $10,800: As I mentioned, I don’t see signs of Truex slowing down just because he’s advanced to the next stage of the Chase. He’s on the pole this weekend and figures to be toward the top all day. In his L3 at Kansas, he’s led 276 laps and won here in May as he’s looking for the Kansas sweep this weekend.
Kyle Busch $10,300: Two bad weeks in a row has Kyle Busch on the outside looking in and if we know Rowdy, he’s capable of anything to make it to the next stage in the Chase. But Kansas is a great track for him and the stage points will help early in the race, so being aggressive may not be necessary. In his L5 at Kansas, he doesn’t have a finish worse than 5th and won in May of 2016. Busch and Truex will be back to their normal ways of battling at the top this week.
Kevin Harvick $9,600: Either me or DraftKings is way off with Harvick’s price. I had him as a T5 driver pushing $10K so this price surprises and excites me. Has 6 T3s in L8 and worst finish is 16th. He’s also led laps in 7 of those 8. Steal of a price IMO and starting 2nd shows he has the speed and I expect him to be pressing for the lead all day.
Matt Kenseth $9,000: My sleeper for the race and I think given at a great price. Qualified 3rd behind Truex and Harvick. Has led over 100 laps in each of the last two fall races here and has 10 T10s in his L14 at Kansas. He needs a good run to make it to the next stage in the Chase and Kansas is a good place for him to race his way in.
Ryan Blaney $8,500: I had Blaney circled as a T10 pick going into qualifying and was pleased to see him with the 3rd fastest time. However a failed inspection got his time DQ’d so he will start 40th Sunday. His place differential is too good to pass up and he’ll be a popular pick at this price point. Had 3 T10s in 5 career races here and led over 80 laps in May.
Kasey Kahne $8,200: Been consistent at Kansas with 5 T20s in the L5 including a 4th in 2015. Average place differential in L4 at Kansas is 14.25. He qualified 21st and +10 is realistic as Kahne should be battling for a T10 Sunday.
Chris Buescher $6,700: Was hoping for a little lower price this week. Three career starts here and has been trending the right way. Finishes of 24-21-18 in that order. Qualified 20th and had a little better speed in practice. Could squeeze him in a balanced lineup.
AJ Allmendinger $6,400: Heading into the race in May, he had some momentum with two straight 8th place finishes. Unfortunately he followed those up with a 30th. Qualified 26th and having realistic expectations of a +8-9 to finish inside the T20 makes him a decent play at this price.
Ty Dillon $6,800: Only two career Cup starts at Kansas and averaging a 20 place finish. Ran well with this team in May as he posted a 14th place finish. He qualified 29th so place differential has potential if he is battling toward the peak of his finishing potential of 15th. Worth a look.
Good luck everyone. Boogity boogity boogity!!