MNF DraftKings Showdown – KC @ DEN
Intro: First off, I can’t express how happy and excited I am for our DFS product to grow more and more. The Slack chat is where all the goodness will be.. Articles, videos, and you will have 24/7 access to me (trust me i go to bed at like 4am) along the rest of the team to ask us anything. Make sure you give our product a follow @DFSFLAMES along with our boys @zmitchh @kurtancall @mikecoseo2 and @mfouts24 We are here to help and spread some knowledge that has aided us into taking down some GPPS (over 60K worth)
Fresh off a great NFL week (Thanks taylor gabriel) and cashing both showdown slates last night we march on for tonight’s primetime in Mile High Stadium. Fun fact I went to Colorado this past spring and this high altitude thing is no joke! I was getting light headed almost as soon as I got there. Another fun fact: I went to high school with Bronco’s safety Justin Simmons. He is like the face of our hometown. The Broncos seem to be improved this year with the SUIT CASE under the helm, having notched wins over seattle and oakland while dropping a game to baltimore last week. While I respect those wins, the seattle and oakland offense is peanuts compared to these KC Chiefs. The Chiefs are not only the nut team to use in Madden 19, they have the record to show for it. Victories over LA, Pitt, and San Fran has this team and the public feeling good. Andy Reid has been in this league long enough to earn my respect for being a damn good coach and probably one of the best offensive minds along with sean mcvay. Who else is rooting for a Rams Chiefs super bowl with me?
What’s Happening in Vegas?
Looking at vegas we can see the Over Under is high as fuck sitting at 54.5 while just getting bet up to 55. Something interesting to note the Chiefs are getting the majority of the bets while they opened at -4.5 . However while getting the majority of bets, the line has dropped to -3.5. This is what we call reverse line movement. In some cases this means that this is potential “sharp” money on the broncos +3.5. (potentially playing in the altitude could effect this game) Sharp money is considered bets of very significant amounts of money. While these people may have dropped large amounts of money on the +3.5 it is still us up to us to decide if we buy into that. Lucky for us in showdown we don’t have to call the exact spread. If anything this potential “sharp money” gives me some faith in this broncos team to compete tonite. If we think they compete, they are either gonna have to keep up in a shootout with mahomes, or lean on the run and defense and slow this game down. (2 scenarios worth playing)
Let’s talk Broncos Defense
When people hear Broncos, i think they immediately think to this elite defense that we all were fond of a few years ago when they carried my idol peyton manning. The defense has not been that great in actuality though! They have given up 27, 19, and 27 to teams i consider all to be average offensively at best (ravens, seahawks, oakland). Now we face this super KC team,I think points could be flying. Looking at this Defense, it appears you can attack them through the middle of the field as Tightends have ate this team up. If you remember Week 1 where that random guy Will Dissly ate, the next week Jared Cook had 4-49, and the ravens collection of tightends all had a decent game vs them last week. Now we get an ELITE tightend in travis kelce going tonite. Hopefully we can rely on Andy Reid and Mahomes to attack the defense the right way and look for Kelce all night. It also helps that Kelce has historically roasted this team. I am all about some travis tonight. The strength of the denver d remains against the run, putting some damper on Kareem Hunt. It is also concerning that kareem the dream has been limited in the passing game. This might be because Mahomes likes to look down field alot and has not been checking down. Kareem the dream is a game theory play tonight since he will be low owned but can’t say i am in love with it. There is one guy I would like to avoid on this Defense: Slot corner Chris Harris. Luckily for us, KC uses chris conley in the slot… a guy we probably were not to interested in anyway. That leaves us with Tyreke the Freak Hill (jesus this dude is fast) and rams castoff Sammy Watkins. The Broncos gave up quality games to Cooper, Lockett, Smokey brown, and the Crabman last week. Safe to say you can attack this this secondary. Consider this the broncos are running out Pac Man jones, and tremaine brock… OLD PEOPLE. Now tyreke gets to face them. Also a cool note is that The FREAK usually plays better on the road. My theory behind this is in hostile environments, at many Andy Reid doesnt play around… he goes to his best guys.. The freak firmly in play tonight. After a bad week 1, Sammy Watkins has put together two decent games in a row. I remember going to the Orange Ball and watching Sammy roast Ohio State. Sammy is cheap and we if we expect high volume passing he should be in play. We love the pass catchers on KC, so obviously we should like the RAGIN CAJUN patty mahomes as well. He has looked phenomenal, it is just a matter of how
many touchdowns he puts up tonight, since he is the highest expensive player and his pass catchers who we love are cheaper then him… side note: an interesting showdown strategy to do (not telling you this is the move tonight) is to fade a teams qb and leverage with their kicker.. Hoping for more field goals then touchdowns.
Let’s Talk Chiefs Defense
Jesus christ talk about an abomination…. This defense is not in anyway good. Now they travel on the road to take on a decent broncos offense. I think the suit case is at least a competent QB. Bob Sutton the Chiefs DC (has the face of someone that doesnt look competent) just seems to give up yards after yards “a real bend but dont’ break defense” if you believe that the broncos offense will stall a few times, kicker Brandon Mcmanus could pull a Justin Tucker from last night at a cheap price. Fellow Slot guys Keenan Allen, and JUJUUU beans roasted this team on the inside, now we get PPR guy Manny Sanders going tonight. Manny seems to be in a great spot and the passing volume should be there. Chiefs are giving up about 7 catches to the slot each game. In this high scoring game we could potentially expect some more. Demaryius Thomas actually has more targets then manny and more “air yards” as everyone loves to say but he is worse at football… NFL league leader in drop passes. Maybe this atrocious defense helps him out tonight to not have the butter fingers. The Sleeper wide receiver of the night is rookie Courtland Sutton. Sutton actually has the most “air yards” of all the pass catchers, he just has had butter fingers. Just like DT maybe this worse defense helps him out with that in a game with more passing volume. The running situation in denver is a cluster fuck but there is one guy i could see having a decent game. Looking at past games, two reciever like combo backs Austin
Ekler, and Matt Brieda had great games vs this team for a cheap price. Phil Lindsey is the combo passing catch back in this offense. He did get ejected from the last game last week so lets make sure to monitor that. Royce Freeman gets the carries and goaline work but this game projects for denver to be trailing, hinting towards seeing more of lindsey the pass catching back. A possible game theory play would be going heavy on royce freeman hoping they establish the run game early, as they try not to beat the chiefs in a shootout. A real wild card at $1800.. Devonta Booker is used for his targets in the passing game but he is clearly behind the other two backs. I would not lock any of these guys in, but i could see one or maybe two of them hitting for a cheap price. The suit case is in a good spot but his TD to Int ratio has me a bit worried. He has not thrown a TD in the past two games but this is obviously a better matchup… (fading him for mcmanus in hopes of that continuing remains in play)
If you want to get absolutely crazy tonight look no further then $200 tightend Matt Lacosse. Jake Butt recently went down for the Ponies, so Lacosse is the next man up. He did have a productive preseason.Like i said this KC defense is bad. You just a couple catches to go your way. From the mouth of @kurtancall “ just listened to an interview and my dick is even harder now. Playing him at $200.