“NUTS AND BOLTS” OF WEEK 14
By: Brandon Napier (Nape)
“Set me a place at the table!”, not the dinner table, coffee table, or the table you made your first child on; this Degens, is our DFS table. We got a lot to ponder on and we need to tune this engine with some “Nuts and Bolts”.
Week 14 shows some interesting stacks and correlation plays, and value makes it a week to go “stars and scrubs”. This is probably the way I’m going to lean this week and I think it will be a chalky way to go. Going balanced, or with games stacks, can be a contrarian way to look this week. That’s where the type of player you are comes in: “eat the chalk” or “YOLO”
Remember this equation (S+O=FP) This means Snaps, player has to be on the field, plus Opportunity, player has to have the ball in his hands, equals Fantasy Points, this is what we need to win the big bucks!
This week I’m going to go through my roster construction thoughts and look at some correlation plays.
• There’s not anyone to pay up for who has an elite matchup. Going to a high priced QB, as part of a game stack could be profitable; however, that’s the only way I’m paying up this week.
• Dak, Jimmy G, Kizer, and Gabbert are all in good spots. These four have plays, either on their own team or on the opposite side, can correlate for profit potential. For example: Kizer/Gordon is going to be a high owned stack this week, and you can look at Dak/Shepherd as a correlation play.
• The QB correlating with the opposing teams number one WR or TE can be a way to get a ton of points in a potential “shootout”. If Dak goes off, that means the Giants will have to pass, therefore, it makes Shepherd or Engram very viable.
• Hit the lock button on Gio if Mixon is out, enough said.
• Gurley and McCoy are two backs I’d like to pay up for, maybe Gordon, but he’s so touchdown dependent. I like these two because of touches—their running and passing game work gives them opportunity to score points. I know McCoy’s passing game numbers have negative regression recently, but the matchup with the Colts is too good to fade.
• I will be looking to only play two backs this week, I think it will be contrarian to use three. This could be away to vary from the field.
• Lamar Miller has a good price tag and is in a great spot playing the Niners.
• Alfred Morris is playable if he gets the volume he received last week. DK Players will be off him because he’s not involved in the passing game.
• Mike Davis, of the Seahawks, could make an interesting pivot off Gio if you’re willing to role the dice.
• GIVE ME THE TARGETS!!
• Josh Gordon is too cheap and is going to force fed targets against a bad Packers secondary.
• Simply put—I’m paying up for Hopkins and K. Allen. The targets/opportunities are too good to pass up.
• Larry Fitz is in a great spot, Gabbert loves to throw inside the numbers.
• Sterling Shepherd—If he’s healthy is way too cheap, the Cowboys give up a ton of fantasy points to opposing WR’s.
• Don’t get cute at WR this week. Play the guys who get the targets.
• I think Stephen Anderson and Trey Burton (if Ertz is out) are two value TE’s that allow you to get more studs in at RB, WR, and Flex
• Kelce and Ertz (if playing) are always guys who receive targets.
• I’m paying up or going value at this position. Or correlating with a guy like Delanie Walker with Fitz or Engram with Dak.
• Playing two TE’s is viable this week, just make sure it correlates with the rest of you lineup.
• Bills and Bengals are in excellent spots to create some havoc.
• Vikings are a nice play in GPP’s; and you can correlate with a guy like Thielen.
• Watch for the status of Stafford! He sits out and you fire up the Bucs defense in some lineups.
• GARAPPOLO/GOODWIN/HOPKINS/ANDERSON- These are two bad offenses and defenses; however, these teams are going to run a ton of plays. You can pair Jimmy G up with Goodwin (8 targets; 8 catches last week) and can add Anderson if you like. If Fuller comes back, delete Anderson and Goodwin. This gives you a good portion, of the usage, in these offenses.
• DAK/DEZ/SHEPHERD- I want to attack the Giants with the pass this week, it’s my contrarian play of the week. I think the Giants put 8 in the box a lot and if Damon Harrison is healthy, the Cowboys could struggle on the ground. Dak and Dez could connect a lot this week, and bring it back with Shepherd, if healthy. Shep doesn’t play, fire up Engram.
• A. SMITH/KELCE/CRABTREE- Amari looks to be sitting this week, I look for Carr to pepper Crabtree and Oakland is the WOAT in the secondary, literally they’re the 32nd ranked pass defense DVOA. The total of this game is 48—you can even game stack if you like.
• FITZGERALD/WALKER- I mentioned this one earlier, Fitzy gets all his targets “inside the numbers”, and Walker lines up on Mariota’s left a ton, or flashes the middle of the field from right to left—hence, Mariota loves to throw to the left side. Let’s correlate the “inside the numbers” guys.
• Eat the chalk this week! Don’t get cute! If you’re making multiple lineups, look for 2v2’s and correlation plays off your main lineup.