“NUTS AND BOLTS” OF WEEK 15
By: Brandon Napier (Nape)
“Do you really want to hurt me? Do you really want to make me cry?” I think Culture Club jumped in the DeLorean, went to 1.21 gigawatts, and went to the future to make this song. Why you ask? Simple—we only have two more weeks of regular season NFL! I think Boy George (google it) was a football fan; and on 12/15/2017—he shed a little tear knowing the season was almost complete. Then he put on more eyeliner, and was cool with it.
Anyways, onto the Week 15 main slate on DK. Let’s start with the equation I told you last week:
(S+O=FP) This means Snaps, player needs be on the field, plus Opportunity, player needs have the ball in his hands, equals Fantasy Points, this is what we need to win the big bucks!
This is a week that the pricing will be tight, and edges can be found with proper roster construction and correlation. I feel like I say this more than McAdoo puts LA Looks or Dep in his hair, but: who’s counting?
Biggest question: I prefer Bell over Brown, because Bell is independent of game script, and will receive work in any situation.
• I’m looking for QB’s with high implied totals this week: Wilson, Goff, Brady, Big Ben. Wilson is my favorite of the grouping; he’s also the only one I would play “naked”. The other 3 would be QB’s I would prefer in a game stack situation.
• Foles and Bortles would be the salary savers I would consider; Foles could have to throw the ball more often than Wentz; the Giants could sell out to stop the 3-headed monster backfield. This would make him have to throw.
• Bortles is topping 30 passes each week, the Texans have a middling secondary, and I think he could have a field day with Westbrook and Lee.
• Say what you will about the Jags blowing out the Texans, but I think Bortles can help in that endeavor. Fournette having quad issues helps my synopsis even more.
• The preferred roster construction, on DK this week, will be to go with 3 RB’s
• Bell and Gurley are obviously the “spend-up” guys, and the equation at the top tells the story there.
• Drake’s just too cheap for the volume he’s getting.
• These three, plus a value QB, punting TE, and getting some of the value WR’s is an option this week.
• Stay away from Alex “Chalk” Collins this week. This is a Woodhead game, the Browns don’t fair well against pass-catching RB’s.
• My big value play is Latavius Murray. I think the red zone work, with the 20 carries he’ll receive, will be someone you can rely on. The Bengals force teams to run with their scheme, look to Murray as a pivot in GPP’s
• I love the idea of playing Ingram/Kamara and Lewis/Burkhead together to soak up a ton of touches and get the RB touches from two teams with high implied totals.
• Brown is obviously still in play. He’ll have opportunities and that’s what we like!
• I like pairing Westbrook/Lee together to get 15-20 targets at right around 11K on DK. I like the Jags passing attack this week.
• Gordon, Fitz, and Crowder are receivers I can see bouncing back from limited targets last week.
• Landry will get targets, has a high floor, and you’re going to need a couple of those plays this week.
• Rodgers is back! Fire up Jordy! He’s a volcano ready to burst.
• Playing 4 receivers will be contrarian this week. Not a bad idea.
• I always like to correlate my TE with a QB, Game Stack, or Correlation play
• I think Gronk, Engram, and Walker are in play this week, or punting the position is an option as well
• The position is top heavy and rather murky this week.
• Just play the Jags or Saints, don’t get cute. Redskins could viable in GPP’s
• WILSON/GURLEY/WOODS- You believe this game will shoot out? Fire up a naked Wilson, getting all the receiving and rushing equity. Go to Gurley who gets volume and passing game work, as well as, Woods coming off an injury—he lines up to Goff’s right, on passing plays, and is his favorite target. If salary allows, you can put Baldwin in as well.
• PERINE/K.WILLIAMS- Peterson’s out, you can lock in 35 to 40 touches for less that 9K on DK. This game could be ugly, and the volume these two bring could be profitable.
• INGRAM/KAMARA/SAINTS D- Get all the touches in the backfield and a defense facing Bryce Petty. You can smell the cash with this one.
• BORTLES/HOPKINS/JAGS D- You’re probably thinking “what’s he smoking?” playing a defense and a player from the opposite team, huh? Well, with Hopkins target share, and offense revolving around him—he might be the only player to have any production. If that’s the case, the Jags D can still be profitable. Maybe, an interception/fumble recovery leads to a Bortles TD? Stranger Things have occurred and it’s on Netflix.
• DRAKE/MCCOY- Who else has upside in this game? With a low total? With volume? Nuff said.
• Play players from the NE/PIT-LAR/SEA, mix in some value, and you’ll be fine.
• Go off the board and combine some plays: KAMARA/INGRAM, WESTBROOK/LEE, MCCOY/DRAKE.
• Don’t get too cute
Let’s stick out like a turd in a punch bowl and win all the money this week! Good luck all.