NFL DFS Week 1 Taco Report
Football is here and once again taco ? is here to help the sports degens followers dominate daily fantasy football. This year I’m only playing fanduel so therefore the recommendations I will be giving is for fanduel not draftkings. Sorry to all you draftkings players. This year fanduel got rid of the kicker and I prefer half point ppr. Ok now that we got that out of the way I’ll introduce myself. Real name Brandon, fantasy name Taco. Taco was a nickname given to me by my league mates in my first ever seasonal fantasy football league around 10 years ago. Not going to get into all the reasons behind the nickname, it would be way too long of and intro, just know that I have way too many Eskimo brothers. If you don’t know what an Eskimo brother is just watch the league. When I started playing daily fantasy like most players I lost money. Most of my money went into large field gpps. I may as well have been buying lottery tickets and then lighting them on fire before scratching. After a long trial and error period of learning how to build solid lineups and learning which contests to play in, daily fantasy finally became profitable for me. And now I want to share this info with you guys. Hope the sports degens community enjoys the taco report.
Things I’ve learned playing daily fantasy.
-Bankroll management – never enter more thank 10-15% of your bankroll. That means if you have 1000 dollars in your fanduel account you should never enter more than 100-150 dollars a week. Always keep track of your return on investment. I suggest downloading the bankroll manager app. It will save you a shit ton of time. Furthermore don’t think of daily fantasy as a get rich quick opportunity. Think of it as a long term investment. If your a good player you should be able to take back an average ROI of around 30%. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but remember the stock market has averaged around 10% ROI, real estate market averages around 20-30%. So 30% is nothing to scoff at. Any professional investor would be ecstatic to have an ROI of 30%.
-Contest selection – first you have to figure out what kind of a player your are. Are you more Gpp minded and find that your favorite lineup isn’t chalky. Or do you find yourself constantly playing heavily owned guys. If your always on the chalk I suggest playing 50/50s. I find that I’m somewhere in the middle. Heres a list of contests that I recommend playing.
-Gpp player – 10 man contest pays out to top 3. 90 percent of your entry fee should go to these contests and the other 10% should be single entry gpps. I recommend building 4 lineups. If you win one out of the four 10 man contests you will make your money back.
-Cash game player – 50/50s, when I play 50/50s I prefer to use one single bullet. No multilineups.
-Lineup build – I prefer to pay down at quarterback most of the time. If there is enough good value out there you can pay up. I also normally like to pay down at running back if I can. Obviously this is not always possible nor is it the right thing to do. But I find it easier to predict cheap running backs than to predict if a cheap wide out is going to go off. In Gpps I prefer mixing and matching my defenses and tight ends because I believe those positions are the most difficult to predict. I will almost never have more than 25% exposure on any tight end or defense. In the article I’m going to give you rankings for the week at each position. Im only going to rank the players that I believe are relevant for each week. Example, some weeks there might be 10 running backs ranked and some weeks there may only be
-I’m going to bold and italicize the players that I’m targeting. The players I bold and italicize will be the ones that I’m going to write about.
• Side note – if you think Dalvin Cook is going to get a full work load I have him ranked above Kareem hunt. But I believe he’s not going to get a full allotment of snaps coming back from an ACL tear.
Quarterback write up
Phillip Rivers – The Chiefs defense is complete garbage this year, but there offense is going to be really explosive. That equates to a shoot out. I’ll own Rivers in 25% of my lineups.
Tyrod Taylor – I believe Tyrod to be one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL today. Last year he brought a struggling buffalo team that didn’t want him there to the playoffs. This year the Steelers defense is going to be somewhat of a dumpster fire. There secondary is below average and there pass rush is right about average. The Steelers should also be able to put points on the board against bad browns pass defense. This equates to garbage time Tyrod. Quite frankly I would have a 100% exposure to Tyrod, but the risk is to heavy with bad weather in Cleveland, and a shitty Browns system. I’ll own Tyrod in 50% of my lineups.
Andy Dalton – great matchup against the worst defense in the league in my opinion. If Andrew Luck is even a shell of his former self he should be able to keep this game close which should keep the red rocket throwing. Ownership will be high on Dalton this Sunday which is why I will only have him in 25% of my lineups. If I were playing cash games he would be in my lineup.
Case Keenum – I personally will not have any Keenum shares, but at his price point I figured he deserved a spot in the write up. I don’t think he has a lot of upside in this matchup because I think the broncos should be able to handle Seattle with ease. The Seahawks defense is going to be garbage this year, but on the other hand the broncos are still stacked on that side of the ball. In my opinion this game is going to be a grinder. I think Keenum is fine for cash games with a high floor and cheap price, but his ceiling is too low for gpps.
Running back write up
Derrick Henry – Under this new coachinh staff the Titans have a much better chance to succeed. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league and there facing a complete dumpster fire of a team. I have the dolphins as the 30th ranked defense this year and there offense isn’t much better. The titans should role over the dolphins with ease. My bold prediction of the week is Henry gets in the box 3 times. I’ll have 100% exposure to Henry this week.
Christian McCaffrey – I think McCafrey is one of the sneakiest plays on the slate. Dallas improved there pass rush this year, but there run defense is going to be garbage again. I’ll have about 75% exposure to McCaffrey this week.
James Conner – Conner is going to get the bulk of the carries and is by far the best value on the board. He might loose some work in the passing game because he wasn’t much of pass catcher coming out of college. With that said he’s had a long time to learn. If I knew he was going to be involved in the passing game I would have 100% exposure to him, but because were not sure yet, I will have about 75% exposure. If your playing cash games he needs to be in your lineup.
Wide Receiver write up
Deandre Hopkins – patriots have a good defense this year, and I know belichicks strategy to take out the the best offensive player on a team, but I believe Hopkins is one of the few receivers that’s matchup proof. Both teams should be able to score on one another and the game could turn into one of the highest scoring games of the week.
Keenan Allen – Allen should make short work of the Chiefs terrible secondary. I think this game has the most potential for a shootout. Allen’s a target monster and Rivers even looks to him in the end zone.
Chris Hogan – Hogan is the guy for now in New England, and like I said before this game should be high scoring. He’s the best mid tier option on slate.
AJ Green – Green should be in all of your cash game lineups due to his matchup. He will be chalky as hell and he does have a good shot to go off. You don’t want to miss out on those points. But because I’m only playing the 10 man contest and gpps I will only have around 25-50% exposure to him this week due to his ownership and the fact that there are a lot of other receivers I like.
Jarvis Landry – Landry is the alpha dog in Cleveland and should be targeted heavily. At his price point he’s one of the best mid tier receivers on the slate.
Allen Hurns – No one in the industry is going to recommend Allen Hurns. Everyone is worried Gallup is going to get the bulk of the targets. But most of the time rookie wide outs struggle in there first game, and most struggle for there first year. The panthers pass defense is garbage this year and at Hurns price point I think he makes a great gpp option. Would not use him in cash. I’ll have 25% exposure to hurns this week. Bold prediction – 7 receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown for hurns this week.
Tight end write up
I’m not going to write up tight ends. Just know they all have decent matchups and they are all big part of the offenses they are in. I wouldn’t recommend having more than 25% exposure to any one of them.
Defense write up
See above write up for tight ends. Same goes for the defenses.
1 Deshaun Watson 8200
2 Tom Brady 8600
3 Phillip Rivers 7500
4 Russell Wilson 7900
5 Dak Prescott 7000
6 Tyrod Taylor 6600
7 Andy Dalton 6800
8 Marcus Mariota 7200
9 Ben Roethlesberger 8000
10 Case Keenum 6300
Running back Rankings
1 Derrick Henry 6800
2 Alvin Kamara 8700
3 Christian McCafrey 7500
4 Melvin Gordon 8100
5 Kareem Hunt 8000
6 Ezekiel Elliot 8300
7 James Connor 5000
8 Dalvin Cook 7300
9 Joe Mixon 6900
10 Adrian Peterson 6300
Wide Receiver rankings
1 Deandre Hopkins 8800
2 Antonio Brown 9000
3 Keenan Allen 8000
4 Chris Hogan 6700
5 AJ Green 8400
6 Jarvis Landry 6600
7 Michael Thomas 8500
8 Allen Hurns 5900
9 Emmanuel Sanders 6300
10 D. Thomas 7000
Tight end rankings
1 Rob Gronkowski 7900
2 Travis Kelce 7100
3 David Njoku 5300
4 D. Walker 6100
1 Ravens 4800
2 Jaguars 4700
3 Titans 4200
4 Redskins 4000