“NUTS AND BOLTS” OF WEEK 13
By: Brandon Napier (Nape)
Happy week 13 DegenNation; and what a week we have in front of us on the DK main slate. 13 games, bye weeks have passed, and pricing is tighter than Alex Smith’s bum-hole when looking down the field the last three weeks. Talk about “a-poopy”!
We have some teams changing things up this week. The Giants going to Geno Smith, and Niners going to Jimmy G, at QB. Teams are also getting ready to be eliminated from playoff contention; so, the younger players might be starting to get more snaps. It’s a week that we must look at volume.
Robby Anderson, his ceiling has grown tremendously. He has six touchdowns in the last five games. Now, with his recent output, his price has gone up as well. Let us get back to “volume”, Anderson’s volume doesn’t commiserate his price. I’m not saying he’s a bad play, he’s the example I’m using to show that negative touchdown regression is probably coming, and he doesn’t get the 8-to-12 targets a game I’m looking for this week.
The same goes with RB. Alvin Kamara has been efficient, so efficient that he’s the highest priced RB on the main slate. However, his touches, split with Ingram, and implied team total this week doesn’t appeal to me this week. I’d rather have more “volume”.
Today, let’s look how I’m thinking about roster construction at each position this week and some correlation plays that can help you this week.
- You don’t have to pick your QB first, I know that it’s the first position listed, but—IT’S NOT A RULE!
- My builds have led me to spend up or go down at QB.
- I’ve had builds where I’ve spent up to Brady and went down to Winston.
- Winston is the cheapest QB I’m looking at.
- I think you can stack with your QB, as always. Brady/Gronk, Winston/Evans, Cam/McCaffery or Funchess, Keenum/Thielen or Diggs.
- Here’s where the “volume” narrative begins!
- I’m looking to spend down at RB this week, and looking for RB’s who will touch the ball a ton.
- Howard, Hyde, J. Williams (if Jones is out), and Drake are some of the players I’m seeing that will get between 20-25 touches at a good price.
- Also, don’t be afraid to play RB’s together to get all the volume for a given team. Patriots- Lewis/Burkhead, Vikings- Murray/McKinnon, Browns- Crowell/Johnson, Jets- Forte/McGuire. The price, together, on these duos are like the higher price RB’s and can be a contrarian way to look at things.
- This is where I’m spending up this week.
- I love the targets that Nuk, Julio, Evans, Thielen, and Cooks are getting.
- There are also some mid-tier plays that are getting volume, albeit, from a putrid QB—Hundley/Adams, Semien/Sanders or Thomas, Kizer/Coleman, Bortles/Lee or Westbrook.
- Diamond in the rough: If healthy, Josh Reynolds for the Rams. I had him as a 3K punt last week and is taking over the Robert Woods role. Goff loves to throw to his right and Reynolds saw 6 targets last week—3 of them were when he lined up on the right side. Including two deep passes.
- I’m looking to correlate at TE this week.
- For example: Brady/Gronk, Cook and Engram in a NYG/OAK game stack, Henry with Johnson in the CLE/LAC game.
- Don’t play a TE naked this week, find some sort of correlation/game theory for reasoning to play a certain TE.
- Ricky Seals Jones aka RSJ, Gabbert loves him, must be practice squad love! RSJ Week 11- five targets for 3-54-2, Week 12- 4-72-1 line on six targets. It’s a thing!
- Don’t get cute, play the defenses who can get you turnovers and sacks.
- Bad QB’s, who will be made to throw according to game script= turnovers!
- Brissett (I don’t think he’s bad, just on a bad team)/Jags, Cutler or Moore/Broncos, Gabbert/Rams
- YOLO: Trubisky/Niners. If you think Jimmy G goes HAM, Trubisky will have to throw.
- HOWARD/HYDE- 45-50 touches between the two, for less than 13K on DK. I like it; I think Howard can run ramshot on the Niners, and Jimmy G showed a tendency to target the RB when with the Patriots. This game could shootout.
- EVANS/ADAMS- If one is having a good game, so will the other. It will be sort of a “ping-pong” like you’d see in NBA DFS. I think these two are set up to have big days.
- CROWELL/JOHNSON/ALLEN/HENRY- Teams must get to the second level of the defense to beat the Chargers. Crowell and Johnson will be the guys who can get to the second level and take pressure off Kiser. Crowell will do most of the rushing and Johnson the pass catching; this occurs, and the Chargers will be throwing. The Browns funnel targets to the TE: insert Henry. Once Henry exposes the middle of the field: enter Allen. I also think you can use Ekeler or Gordon in this as well.
- GABBERT/RSJ/KUPP/GURLEY- I mentioned RSJ earlier, if you think the Cards can keep it close Gab and RSJ have connected! Bring it back with Kupp and Gurley, and you have a ton of touches for the Rams.
Good luck Degens—Variance is your friend!