Quick Bricks NBA DFS Cheat Sheet
Hello Friday and the beginning of the official (almost) beginning of the weekend, ladies and gents! It is actually my start to the weekend as Thursday nights are more Fridays basically as I only work Mon-Thur, be jelly! Any rate, it is that time again and we have a wonderful 10-game NBA DFS slate for the choosing tonight, and after doing my research, I really do like some nice spots tonight. There really aren’t that many high totals on the board tonight, so there are many way over-priced studs on the slate, which means I believe balance will be the key tonight. See here we go..
Kris Dunn ($7,100)– Going back to the Mavs PG fade here as we saw Steph light them up in their previous game for 32 points, 5 boards, and 8 dishes, while also collecting a theft. So, with that said, I really like Kris Dunn’s price here tonight on DraftKings. It also helps that Dunn is behind some pretty big names like Dame, Kyrie, and Wall in the PG pecking order, so this should lower his ownership percentage a wee bit hopefully. Dallas is allowing the 2nd most FPs to opposing PGs on average over their last 5 games by a margin average of 17.5 more FPs over that span. Dunn has been putting up large fantasy numbers on the road in his last 7 road travels as well, averaging 35.5 FPs over the span, with a pretty admirable 1.10 FPPM, and not to mention his 25.7 usage rate. As mentioned for Steph’s case in the last Quick Bricks, DSJ for the Mavs ranks 201st in qualified guards in DEFRTG, so this is a no-brainer at Dunn’s price point. Book it.
J.J. Barea ($5,300)- This game is slated to be the 3rd highest total on the board as of right now, as the top 1-2 highest are tied at 216.5 and this game boasts a very modest 212 total. I do think this game has some pace that will be involved, and that’s why I picked Dunn, and that’s why I am picking Barea. Barea has been very good lately, his last 5 games have seen three go for 30 or more FPs and the other two hovered around 28 FPs. Chicago has allowed the 5th most FPs on average to the PG spot over their last 5 games. Barea is also carrying a 26.8 usage rating on his home floor while sustaining very modest averages of 22.7 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, and 5.9 apg. I also thought it was very interesting to see that Barea’s usage rate was only 3 percentage points lower than DSJ, and his PIE (player impact estimate) is 6.2 points higher than DSJ, meaning his impact on the game is usually very, very much higher.
Brad Beal ($7,900)– Beal has accrued at least 43 or more fantasy points in 3 of his last 4, including a 70.3 FP monster against CHI at home a couple games ago. Here Beal will once again be in plus match up, as the Grizzlies have not defended the SG position very well lately. The Grizz are allowing the 6th most fantasy points on average over their last 5 by a very hefty 24.9 FP marginal average. This should bode well into Beal’s favor as he is sporting a very generous 30.6 usage rate in his road travels, compared to 28.8% at home (Wall’s is 27.5, btw, not to mention Beal is only a mere 2 points lower than Wall in terms of OFFRTG this season). Beal has really been quite the shooter this season so far as well, boasting a EFG% of 51.7%, a TS% of .555%, as well as a PIE only a fractional 0.2 lower than Wall on the season. Beal is definitely a major staple for me on tonight’s slate.
Jeremy Lamb ($5,600)– Here we get a very nice, cheap guard in one of the tied highest totals on the board with LAL/CHA. As we know, the Lakers run with the highest pace in the NBA, the Hornets surprisingly are ranked 10th in the NBA in terms or pace, so this game should see quite the game-flow tonight. Lamb has been a very interesting target lately, as he has tallied up road FP totals of 32.3, 31.2, and 26 in his last 3. It is worth noting that Lamb is also averaging almost a full 3 minutes more per game on average on the road, that he is in his home games (28.9 mpg on road compared to 24.9 mpg at home). Let’s go ahead and add in his 23.6 usage%, (Batum’s is only 17.3, and Kemba is not much farther ahead at 27), as well as the fact that over the Lakers last 5 games, they have allowed the MOST fantasy points on average to the SG spot by a marginal average of 32.6 FPs. I can go a smidge farther by also adding that fact that Lamb only lacks a smidge under 1 PIE than starting PG Kemba Walker as well. Lakers also really take a dive in terms of DEFRTG when their back up SGs take the floor, as Josh Hart is carrying a 110.0 DEFRTG, good for 181st among qualified guards on the season so far.
Harrison Barnes ($6,600)– Can’t wait to hear the backlash on this one, but let me put it this way, Giannis is just so expensive (although I will roster him in at least one LU), and I really do not feel comfy rostering Kawhi tonight at $7k as the Spurs take on the Suns at home (blow-out). Now, Barnes is one of those guys that is a major staple for his team in terms of offense, but is never talked about. Barnes is a very nice, very affordable, very balanced option on tonight’s slate. He is averaging 34.8 FPs in his last 5 home games, with a modest 1.02 FPPM. His 24.7 usage rate ranks third on the team behind DSJ, and very closely behind Barea. Finally, Chicago is allowing the 3rd most FPs on average to opposing SFs on the season so far, as well as 11th most on average over their last 5. Let’s not forget the total of this game as well (STACK).
Trey Lyles ($5,400)– Not ready to jump of this train yet, and tonight we get narrative street again here with Mr. Lyles again. It really isn’t about the narrative though, it is more about attacking a weakness that the Jazz have accrued since the injury to Gobert. They are just simply hurting at the 4 now, as they are allowing the MOST FPs on average to the spot over their last 5 by a marginal average of a whopping 38.7 fantasy points. Lyles has been spectacular off the bench lately, playing 27, 28, and 31 minutes in his last 3 games in Denver, while also notching 32.8, 31.5, and 28.5 FPs in those as well. Not to mention 2 of those 3 included a double-double. He carries a modest 20.3 usage rate in Denver, and is second in PIE to the one and only Nikola Jokic on the team.
LMA ($8,200)– Yes, I am kind of contradicting myself by saying I wouldn’t play Kawhi tonight, but I will play LMA, right? Well, I just found it intriguing that LMA has at least 32 minutes or more in his last 5 home games, and really hasn’t played less than 30 in nearly all of his games so far this season. He is just a work horse, and we will be happy to have him on our squad tonight as he has amassed 40 or more FPs in 3 of his last 5 home bouts, boasts a hefty 28.9 usage rate at home, averaging 22.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, and 1.2 bpg. Let’s also add further context, against PHO (2 games) this season, LMA has average 33 mpg, 20.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg, and 2.0 apg. As we know, LMA plays both the 4 and the 5, which makes him so much versatile and such a great option to stay on the floor most of the time, and it helps that the Suns are just really putrid on D, Chriss is carrying a 109.4 DEFRTG on the season, good for 380th ranked among qualified forwards.
Michael BEEEZZZZLEY ($5,300)– If you haven’t looked up Beasley’s numbers for this season so far, well, you are in for a treat. It is truly astonishing. He is sporting a 31.7 usage% on the road, while hanging a modest 29.1 usage% overall on just an average of 18.5 minutes per game. Also, in that same average of minutes per game on the road, he is averaging 13 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 1.6 apg. Not too shabby, eh? In his last 3 of 4 games, he has seen at least 25 minutes of court-time, while putting up video game numbers in terms of FPs at 43.3, 26.8, and 51.0, while shooting a very modest 51% from the field on the season so far. So, how do you fade him at this price? I cannot.
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300)– Cannot wait for this one to bite me, but the numbers tell me it’s a magnificent play for his price tonight in POR. Nurkic has been fantastic lately, putting up fantasy point totals of 42 or more in his last 3 of 4 games, while the 4th being a total of 33.8 (who was against ATL in ATL). In his home games this season, Nurkic is carrying a very gracious 29.7 usage rate, while averaging 26.9 mpg, 15.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.5 apg. He has tallied double-digit scoring in 5 of his last 6 at home averaging 15.7 ppg in that span, and is an easy double-double potential on most nights. I don’t see a whole ton of great options at the C spot tonight, and most will flood to KAT and Embiid. I will take the lesser-salary approach on a guy who SHOULD get me 35+, and hope the rest of my balanced LU can ignite the flames.
Serge Ibaka ($5,500)– Serge has been busy lately, not to mention this is the second time he will face MIL in the last week or so. He has notched out 32 FPs or more in 2 of his last 3, including 35 FP performance against this MIL team in TOR. Serge is averaging 28.2 mpg this season, while carrying a modest 20.1 usage rate, while also sporting a better than average 113.1 OFFRTG. MIL has been dominated by opposing bigs this season, and in their last 5 contests, have allowed the 7th most FPs on average to the spot. In Serge’s most recent battle with MIL, he put up a very stuffy line of 11 pts, 8 boards, 2 dimes, 4 swats, and 2 thefts, while carrying a 25.7 usage%. So, for a nice, balanced roster option at the F/C spot, Serge can be your guy tonight.
Thanks for joining me, good people of the Degen Nation! I hope you found some useful tidbits in today’s Quick Brick Cheat Sheet! Enjoy your Friday and also enjoy you weekend! I hope to see some GPP binking going on tonight as well! GOOD LUCK!