What’s going on everyone? I’m James and happy Tuesday! A quick little tidbit about myself, I’ll be writing some DFS content for the remainder of the season for the Sports Degens. I currently write for Fantasy Alarm as well and do NBA DFS content as well as many other things over there. You can hit me up on Twitter → @The_Real_Grande
Tuesday has brought us a five game slate, which is more than we’ve gotten on a Tuesday in what feels like forever. I myself, like Mitch, enjoy playing GPP’s far more than cash games. I will note if a player is worthy of cash, but I’m primarily giving you GPP looks. Today’s slate may be only five contests, but some of them may pack a serious punch with a total up near 230 in Golden State & New York.
Kyrie Irving ($8,900) – With Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook on this slate, a lot of ownership will likely slide towards them, but don’t overlook “Uncle Drew.” Irving is coming off one of his best scoring performances of the year putting up 40 actual points and 60.3 DK points against an anemic Magic defense. He now gets a matchup in an uptempo game — Lakers are first in pace, Celtics are 21st — against another putrid defensive team. The Lakers rank 21st against the point-guard position and will be throwing guys like Tyler Ennis and Alex Caruso at Irving hoping to stop him. Boston has lost two games in a row and I fully expect Irving to put together another monster offensive game to help stop the bleeding.
De’Aaron Fox ($5,200) – With the Kings apparently resting two veterans per game for the remainder of the year, this seems like a spot George Hill will rest a night after suiting up. We don’t have to worry about Fox’s playing time, as he’s now seen 27 minutes or more in 10 straight games and has seen 31-plus in three straight. The last time the Kings had a back-to-back set, Fox actually played two more minutes on the second leg than he did on the first one, so the minutes are secure. He’s having a career-best month thus far in January averaging 13.6 points and 6.2 assists per game. Oh, yeah, have I mentioned that the Magic rank dead last at guarding opposing point-guards this year? Fox is a great play for all formats on Tuesday.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,700) – Do we like the total of this game? Hell to the yes. Do we like the spread? Hell to the no. The Warriors should basically be at full strength tonight with the except of Jordan Bell which is the main reason why they’re 13.5 point favorites according to Vegas. However, we’re talking tournaments, and if the Knicks are to stay in this game, Hardaway is going to play a big role in that. I hear a lot of noise constantly about how wonderful a defender Klay Thompson is, but the numbers don’t support that notion. He has a -2.3 DBPM and a 110 DRtG, which in both cases, are horrible. Hardaway has popped 50, even 60 DK point upside this year, and because of the tempo this game will be played at, this could be one of those games if the Knicks can keep it close.
Andre Roberson ($4,000) – It actually pains me to admit that Roberson has been good of late, but there’s no way around it. Since returning from injury, he’s scored 22 and 20 DK points in the two games respectively. I don’t even want to talk about how horrible his usage rate is because quite honestly I’m not sure it even registers on the scale. That being said, he’s contributing peripheral stats which is what we need guys with low usage rates to do i.e. Kyle Anderson. Brooklyn ranks 25th in the league in turnovers and Roberson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the game, which could lead to a handful of steals which could lead us to a five or six times his salary type game, which we want from a low-usage punt like him. This play scares me, but if you’re playing GPP’s, you have to sometimes take some risks.
Brandon Ingram ($6,400) – There are a lot of different factors leading me to believe Brandon Ingram will be essentially unowned tonight and I don’t think that’s too smart. Yes he’s dealing with an injury, but he played just two days ago and seems poised to take on his normal workload going forward. Earlier in the season when Boston and Los Angeles met, Ingram played 36 minutes and went 7-for-11 from the floor with 18 actual points and 31 DraftKings points. He has 40-point upside here even in a tough matchup against a good Celtics defense, which is another reason why he’ll fly under-the-radar. Ingram has a solid 21.9-percent usage rate with Lonzo Ball off of the floor, so he’ll get plenty of opportunity in this spot.
DeMarre Carroll ($5,800) – Carroll has been Mr. Consistency for the Nets of late, posting 23-plus DK points in six straight games. He’s also topped out at 40 and has been over 30 in four of the six contests. Carroll, like Ingram, doesn’t have the best individual matchup against Paul George, but the Thunder as a whole have been middle of the pack against small-forwards as they rank 15th against the position. Over the past month, Carroll’s posted a 19.55 USG and is averaging a tick under 26 DK points per game. Sometimes on a smaller slate, some safety in your tournament lineups is a good thing as you can always differentiate somewhere. Carroll is that safety.
Aaron Gordon ($8,100) – All year I’ve touted how bad the Kings are on the glass and how easy it is to roster good rebounding big men against them and this is one of those games. Gordon has been rolling on the glass, posting double-digit rebounding outputs in three of his last four games. He’s shot the ball horrendously recently and yet continues to be viable in the DFS world. The Kings rank 29th against power-forwards over the last month so if there was ever a time for Gordon to break out of his shooting slump, tonight we be the night. His 8.1K evaluation DK has slapped him with is pricey, but the upside is there and could scare people away because I’m sure many won’t want to pay the premium due to his poorus shooting.
Michael Beasley ($5,500) – There are six players in the entire league with a higher usage rate than Michael Beasley in the past month. We recently learned Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle O’Quinn are both out for this game, so we’re going to see a ton of Beasley. Quite honestly, I don’t care if he’s chalky because the upside is tremendous. He has a 32.9-percent USG with Porzingis off of the floor which is up there with the top names in the game. He averages 1.14 fantasy points per minute without Porzingis and gets an uptempo matchup with the Warriors who rank 25th against power-forwards over the past month. Beasley could honestly foul out in 15 minutes if he has to guard Kevin Durant tonight, but if he gets his 25-to-30 minutes like I’m expecting him to, he could score 30 actual points and the peripheral stats would be an added bonus at that point.
Steven Adams ($6,800) – This is the dream matchup for Adams who is my favorite play from the Thunder side on a point-per-dollar basis on this slate. The Nets rank dead last against centers and it’s not even close. They’re down right dreadful against them and Adams comes in hot notching four straight double-double’s including two straight 20-point double-double’s. He scored 31 DK points in 30 minutes the last time these two met and I’m expecting an even bigger output in this spot seeing how well he’s played of late. He’s a lock in any format you find yourself playing on this five game fiesta.
Willie-Cauley Stein ($6,600) – I love the Kings here, what can I say? With the expectation that two veterans sit, Kosta Koufus might be one of them which means another game of extended run for WCS. The Magic have been subpar against centers this past month as they rank 21st in the league against them. Cauley-Stein’s upside was on true display last night as he went 5-for-20 from the floor and still managed 30 DK points on the night. Imagine half of those shots fell? The back-to-back may scare people off of the Kings here but not me. This is a great spot for WCS and he’s an excellent tournament play in this pace up spot, exactly the type of games that fit his play style the best.