Happy hump day, good folks of the Degen Nation! It is Wednesday and we have a marvelous 9-game NBA DFS slate to analyze for tonight, so Mitch is back, and I have found some nice spots for tonight’s games! Still a bit salty over Fox having butt problems last night and not playing half the game, but that’s neither here nor there and we must move on, as I know a lot of you guys were not thrilled about that either sooo with that said, let’s just cut the bullshit and get into these nine games!
Dame Lillard ($8,900)- Dame’s price stays consistent around the 8.7-8.9K range and we are fine with that going into tonight’s slate, especially since he has a home clash with the Wolves. Dame been torching folks on his home court lately, going for 52.3, 45.8, and 51.3 fantasy points there over his last 3 contests. Also, Dame has been carrying a way better than average 27.9 usage rate over his last 5 games, as well as a 114.3 OFFRTG. The Wolves come into tonight allowing the 10th most FPs on average to the PG spot over their last 10 games, as well as the 2nd MOST fps on average over the duration of the season so far. Teague comes in with a pretty ugly 109.6 DEFRTG over his last 10, and he will absolutely have his work cut out for him tonight on Dame’s court. In 2 games between the two earlier in the season, Dame averaged 19 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 10.5 apg, while also averaging a massive 30.3 usage% for those 2 as well.
Yogi Ferrell ($4,600)- There will be need for some value on tonight’s slate if you plan on fitting some AD and/or Cousins, along with either Harden and/or CP3, so here is one that you can look for as as somewhat of a go-to as he has been really good lately. Yogi has been eating minutes over his last 3 at home, playing 31, 33, and 43 mins in those, while putting up fantasy point totals of 28.3, 33.5, and 31.5 also. His usage is not exactly where we would want it to be, but his ability to stuff the stat sheet allows him to be quite valuable tonight, as this game supports a decently high total of 217, as well as the fact that he is play the high-octane offense of the Rockets. The Rockets are allowing some FPs to the SG spot as well, allowing the 6th most on average to the spot over their last 5, and the 2nd most on average over their last 10. In the Mavs lone game vs the Rockets this season, Yogi saw 41 mins, put up 19 points, 3 rebounds, 6 dimes, and 1 steal, while hoisting a 19.2 usage%. Yogi’s minutes have been consistent lately, playing at least 29 or more in his last 6 games, some part of this was due to Barea being out, but they still need guard help and he has been there to fill in.
Victor Oladipo ($9,000)- Just keep it simple, folks. Don’t over-think this one, even though his price is up there with the Harden/CP3 and close to AD and such. This game should see plenty of pace and possessions, and I really recommend putting in a game stack for this PHO/IND game as it should be fantasy gold. Oladipo should be at the center of that stack as well, or even just a nice one-off for tonight. Dipo coming in with a 29.7 usage rate over his last 10, while carrying a bit higher rate at home this season with 31.1%. The Suns do not guard very well to say the least, and the SG/PG spot are definitely are the top of their worse rank as they are allowing the MOST FPs on average to the G spot over their last 5 by a hefty 33.5 marginal average. Oladipo has amassed at least 48 fantasy points or more in 4 of his last 7 at home, with 3 surpassing 50 FPs as well.
Stanley Johnson ($3,600)- May just be a glutton for punishment here, but I just have a gut feeling that Stan can be the man for value tonight, like Yogi. Stanley has doubled his minute total in his 2nd game back from a 3-game absence, playing 26 minutes in his most recent contest, while putting up 23 fantasy points on a line of 18 points and 4 boards. It is worth noting that Stanley has also supported the 3rd highest usage on the team over his last 2 games at a clip of 22.7%, while also carrying a very respectable 115.4 OFFRTG in those 2 as well, and it was noted that he was being applauded quite much for the way he was attacking the rim over those as well. Most will not even look this way due to the fact that the Pistons are hosting the Jazz, yet the Jazz have been mid-tier of the pack in terms of FPs allowed to the SF spot. I do believe if Johnson happens to see 26+ minutes of floor time tonight, he SHOULD be able to exceed his value at his very small price point. It IS A RISK, FOLKS! Lol
Tony J Warren ($7,000- The SF spot is quite thin tonight, and not many “true” SFs to choose from for that matter. I do like some TJ here though, and keeping it in this PHO/IND game theme as well as I see this game having some fireworks as mentioned above. Warren has surpassed 35 FPs in his last 3 road travels, as well as over 33 FPs in 6 of his last 7. His 26.3 usage% is quite admirable, and is good for 2nd on the team, but his PIE of 13.6 is actually the highest on the team over their last 5 with Booker coming in slightly behind at 13.2. I thought it was quite interesting to also note that is seems quite evident that when Warren plays Eastern Conference teams his numbers are a bit higher for some reason. Versus the East this season, Warren carries a 27.1 Usage rate (compared to 25.7 vs West), while also averaging 21 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 0.9 apg. Of course, we know he plays way more games vs the West, but thought it was interesting to note these stats.
Robert Covington ($5,700)- Is RoCo finally finding his stride again? I mean you can most definitely argue It, as he has now gone for 32.5 and 34.8 FPs over his last 2 contests. His 19.2 usage over on the season at home isn’t exactly nothing to write home about, but it is substantially higher than his road average of a meager 16.5%. He is also averaging 13.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.6 spg, and 0.8 bpg, so for his ability to stuff the sheet is why I like him as much tonight. He seems to play better at home, and tonight he should have a decent match up as the Bulls come to town. This game comes in with one of the highest totals on the board as well at 219, so would expect to see some scoring. Also, for those of you playing FanDuel, this is one guy you need to look at as his steals/blocks are vastly important to your LUs on there.
Blake Griffin ($9,000)- As I mentioned about Oladipo, just keep it simple and don’t over-think this one as well. I understand that AD and Cousins are both in this list, and I am more than fine taking Blake here (especially if Deandre Jordan sits again, which reports are saying “doubtful”), as Blake has seen a very impressive 30.1 usage rate over his last 5 games, with a very impactful 15.2 PIE over that span as well (Lou Will only 13.8). Blake will continue to be the driving force here for the Clipps, and we all know that BOS already has trouble down low with rebounding, so I could easily see Blake having a monster game tonight with them on a B2B as well. In his last 3 games at home, Blake has put up some monsters with his 70.5 FP performance with a trip-dub his their most recent, while also putting up 42.5 and 51.5 in the other two. In 8 games vs the East this season, Blake saw an even higher up-tick in usage at a 31.8% clip, while playing an average of 36.6 mpg, and averaging 23.1 ppg, 8.3 pg, 5.4 apg, and 1.0 spg. I will be paying up for some Blake tonight.
Dario Saric ($6,400)- Had to break the format of the article again, as no one really excited me much in the under $6k salary range for tonight, so I had to go with Saric, and I rightfully believe it was the correct choice. Saric has been playing very well lately, putting up at least 32 fantasy points or more in his last 3 contests, while playing over 32 minutes in his last 5. He carries a moderate 20.9 usage% of his last 5 games, and it helps that the Bulls have not done so hot against the PF spot this season as they are allowing the 4th most on average to the spot over their last 5 games, as well as the MOST FPs on average to the spot over the course of the season. In the lone game these two teams played in earlier this season, Saric was quite important, scoring 27 points, grabbing 8 boards, dishing one dime, and recording 2 steals in 31 minutes. Also, he carried a hefty 29.2% usage rate, but it is also note-worthy that Joel Embiid was not a participant in this game.
Joel Embiid ($9,700)- There is need to pay up in a few spots tonight, and it seems every time I fade AD/Cousins I get punished for it. I don’t plan on fully fading the duo, but I will try to target the other guys I have mentioned more, in hopes that they have monster games with their higher usage and better match-ups. AD and Boogie do not have the best match up tonight, btw as the Hornets are decently known for playing good D, and especially at home. Boogie will have his work cut out for him down low against Howard for sure, so AD would be the preferred route for me in choosing between the two. Now, back to Embiid, who didn’t play in the lone match against the Bulls earlier in the season as mentioned above. Embiid should have a monster. The bulls have been getting decimated by opposing Cs this season, and especially extremely athletic ones like Embiid is. They are allowing the MOST fps on average to the C spot over their L5 games. Embiid has topped 41 FPs in his last 3 home bouts, and has also carried the highest usage rate in the NBA over the last 5 games for any time at a clip of 33.9! Not to mention his very impressive 17.8 PIE over that span as well! In his games against the East this season, Embiid comes in with a huge 34.7 usage average, playing 30.1 mpg on average as well, and also averaging 22.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg, and 2.9 apg. It’s a no-brainer for me.
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,000)- Little bit of a shot in the dark here, but it is evident that Dedmon is working his way back into minutes quite nicely. Tonight, he gets a very solid match-up as him coming off the bench against the small-ball approach the Raps use deeper into games should benefit him. Dedmon has played at least 21 minutes or more in his last 4 of 5 home clashes, while also recording a double-double in 2 of those 4, with another being pretty damn close to making it 3 of 4. Three of those 5 games resulted in 26+ fantasy points, and 2 went for over 30. His 20.0 usage is fair enough for a bench player playing around 22 mins, and it is helpful that Toronto has allowed the 5th most FPs on average to opposing C’s over their last 5 games, and the 8th most on average over their last 10.
So, there you have it, good people! Hope you enjoyed, and I look forward to chatting it up with you all later today in the SD Slack Chat!