Quick Bricks NBA DFS Cheat Sheet 1-30-2018

It is Tuesday, this is Quick Bricks Cheat Sheet, and we have a lovely 9-game slate today. I don’t feel like getting too much into the small talk, and I am definitely ready to bink a tournament, so let’s just get to business! We have all the time in the world this afternoon to chat about the slate in the #SDSlackChat!

PG:

Damian Lillard ($8.700)- Not going to say don’t play Russ, as he has all kinds of reasons to be a significantly great play tonight, especially with no John Wall (so it seems), but obviously, there are a ton of studs on tonight’s slate and Russ is just one. Play some Russ guys. Now, for a bit of a cheaper look, I am looking at Dame tonight visiting LA and the Clippers after they just traded off one of their biggest pieces in Blake Griffin. Dame comes into tonight carrying a very nice 30.5 average road usage%, with an average of 116 OFFRTG in his road travels as well this season so far. This game does sport the highest total on the board tonight at 221, and I feel like this could be a smash spot for Dame, as the Clippers are allowing the MOST FPs on average to the PG spot over their L5. We have seen a few really good point guards just man-handle Milos Teledosic in previous games, and I expect nothing less here tonight as Dame should shake-n-bake all over him on his home floor. Dame has now gone for 40 or more FPs in his last 3 of 4 road games, while averaging close to 42 FPs in his last 9 road travels. I will have some Dame.

DeAaron Fox ($5,500)- Feel like is the best value at the G spot tonight, as Fox’s usage has been the highest on the team over their last 5 road trips at 25%. Even over the King’s last 10 road games, only Zach Randolph has a higher usage rate than Fox, and Fox is still sitting pretty at 24.7% in those, so I think Fox is definitely a pretty nice staple in tonight’s LU constructions. He has a pretty generous match up as well against the Pelicans in New Orleans, as we know Rondo can’t defend a damn lick, and the back-ups like Jameer Nelson can’t either, as the Pelicans are allowing the 6th most FPs on average to the PG spot over their last 5, the MOST FPs on average over their last 10, as well as the MOST FPs on average to the PG spot over the course of the season. Fox has stepped in nicely in the King’s last 10 or so games, and he’s really been a nice anchor for this squad, and I did say at the beginning of the season that this guy was going to be the new face of the Kings, and here he is starting to get comfy, so watch out. In road games where Fox saw 30 minutes or more of floor time, he has averaged 32 mpg, and 31.4 FPs in 6 road games that qualify.

SG:

James Harden ($11,200)- This is just a total smash spot for Harden and it’s not even close. ORL has been dreadful against G’s this season, as both Elf (116.4) and Fournier (110.6) have carried awful DEFRTG’s in their road travels this season so far. Harden is by far the highest usage player in his home games this season, carrying an average of 36.7%, while also seeing 36.1% in his last 10 at home, and 36.5$ in his last 5 on his home floor. ORL is allowing the MOST FPs on average to the SG spot on the season, as well as the 7th overall FPs on average over their last 7 games. In 16 games vs the East this season, Harden is averaging 36.4 usage rate, 36.2 mpg, 29.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 9.4 apg, 1.6 spg, and 0.8 bpg, so to say he couldn’t top these averages tonight would be quite farfetched. Get some Harden.

Alec Burks ($3,700)- Gotta have some value to fit these studs, right? Burks should see run tonight with no Rodney Hood, as he was already ruled out for tonight’s contest. Astonishingly enough, Burks’ usage rates, although only averaging around 19 mpg, are higher than some starters on other teams at 23% in his home games on the season (3rd highest on team), while also even more at 24% in their last 10 games, and better than that at 25% with a 107.4 OFFRTG in the Jazz L5 games. The minutes just haven’t been there with Rodney Hood on the floor, but since he is out, I expect Burks to pick up most of his minutes off the bench tonight. In 23 games vs the West this season, Burks has carried a 26% usage rate, 18.4 mpg, 10.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, and 1.3 apg. These don’t just jump off the page at you, but they are playing the Warriors, and this game does have a total of 217.5 and it IS in UTAH, where these kinds of totals do not usually exist, so with that said, do not shy away from this game. Burks hopefully should see mid-twenties in the minutes tonight, and that should be more than enough to exceed value at his price point.

SF:

Demarre Carroll ($5,700)- Most will say wtf, Mitch? You got LBJ, KD, PG13…all sitting way above this cat. Sure, they are, and I SHOULDN’T have to tell you guys to play those guys either, play at your own risk, as I will have some, more than likely some LBJ more than anything. BUT, when you look at how the Nets will be without RHJ and Levert, Carroll has been quite the beneficiary lately of these sittings. Playing close to 30 mins a game, carrying a modest 22.0 usage over his last 10, and 24.2% over the Net’s L5 games on the road, I don’t mind playing some of him tonight. It does help the mention that Cortney Lee (Who I do think is also a viable play tonight, really quite viable) is averaging a 111.9 DEFRTG in the Knick’s last 10 home contests, so I believe Carroll can find some success tonight in MSG. In 3 contests against the Knicks this season so far, Carroll comes in with a 19.4 average usage, 119 avg OFFRTG, while averaging 13.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, shooting 50% from behind the arc, as well as 43% from the field in those 3. Someone will have to do the work for the Nets, and lately it has been Carroll as he has gone for 29 FPs or more in 4 of his last 7 games, while also producing 30 or more FPs in 4 of his last 6 on the road.

Buddy Hield ($5,000)- It is pretty rough on the low end of the spectrum when it comes to the SF spot, but you get a little bit of a former team narrative here with Buddy tonight. Like Josh Jackson last night, Buddy is my bounce-back candidate for tonight, as he had a complete dud last game versus the Spurs  in San Antonio where he amassed a whopping 3.0 FPs over a 20 minute span on the floor. Most will see this game and move along, but look a little deeper. Buddy went for 32.8/32.8/28.8/29.8 in the previous 4 ROAD games before that. He has averaged 31 FPs over that span, on 27.5 mpg, with a 1.13 FFPM as well. San Antonio is a tough place to play, folks, and that’s why the Spurs are a top-3 defensive unit in the Association. Don’t sleep on Buddy tonight, as the Pelicans are notorious for giving up games to SGs, as they have allowed the 2nd most FPs on average to the spot over their last 5, as well as on the season so far. Buddy comes in with a very doable 24.4 usage in road travels this season so far, compared to only 22.6% in home games. In 2 games vs NO this season, Buddy held a 22.5 usage, averaged 15 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 1 apg, on 26.4 mpg. His price is fair enough tonight, and I don’t mind plugging him as a mid-tier guard tonight.

PF:

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100)- Mr. Usage himself will be in a couple of my builds tonight. Staps is top 3 highest usage F’s on the slate tonight, and well, who is going to guard him tonight as the Nets are without RJH (who is actually a legit defender)? This should be an easy smash spot for Kristaps at home tonight. Nets are allowing the 7th most FPs on average to the C spot over their last 10, and without RHJ, will likely be top 5 most against the PF spot as well. His massive 33.0 usage at home this season is pretty close to tops with Giannis/LBJ, while he is also averaging 24.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, and 2.4 BLOCKS per game (for you FD guys!), this is a no-brainer for me at MSG. In 3 games against BRKN already this season, he has averaged 33.5 usage%, 130 OFFRTG, 23 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, and 1.7 bpg, over just 24.7 mpg! Don’t over-look Kristaps tonight.

Derrick Favors ($5,100)- I think we can catch some very low ownership on a pretty decent match up here with Favors in Utah. Favors has been pretty damn good since moving back to the PF spot, going for 30+ Fps in 3 of his last 5 in Utah. Carrying a modest 19.3 usage in the Jazz last 10 at home. Potential double-double here tonight, as we know the Warriors love to go small with Draymond, and I think this could be real nice for Favors. In the last game (No Gobert), Favors went for 17 points, 10 boards, and 1 assist with a 144 OFFRTG and a 20.5 usage over 26 minutes on the floor in the Bay area. GS is allowing the 6th most FPs on average to the PF spot over their last 5 as well. In home games this season, Favors is shooting 56% from the field, averaging over 1 steal a game, almost 1 block a game, playing an average of 29 mpg, while carrying a 119 OFFRTG on average and averaging 12.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, and 1.5 apg as well. At $5,100, I like the value and what should be low ownership on Favors tonight.

C:

Steven Adams ($6,500)- Adams comes in with the Centers against WAS scenario I have been blasting for a while now, and what better C to roster for this scenario than Adams. Obviously, don’t fully fade AD tonight guys, I just wasn’t using him for this article, but will be on his some tonight. However, I will be on some Adams as well, as he did record a double-double 3 games ago vs WAS, with 12 points, 10 boards, and 3 steals in that game over 36 minutes, and good for 32 FPs. Adams has been pretty strong lately, being a major compliment to Russ down in the paint as he has gone for 32 or more FPs in his last 4 of 5 on his home floor. Good chance he will also have some very nice low ownership as well with all the C’s listed above him on this slate. His price isn’t exactly lovely and inviting, but I do think he can go for 6x or so.

Ed Davis ($$4,400)- I wrongfully didn’t listen to a #SDSlackChat member 3 days ago when they said Ed Davis was a good play on that slate, and well he went for 39.2 FPs. So, I can’t help but add him here tonight as the Clippers just dished off their starting PG, which shouldn’t exactly leave a gaping hole there, but I do think Davis could have some success here tonight in LA. Davis has seen 24 or more minutes in 3 of his last 4, which is very encouraging if you know that Davis usually, hardly sees over 20 rarely! So, with that, and the fact that over his last 4, he has notched 39.3, 28.0, 28.0, and 24.5 FPs, it is quite the nice sign that he should absolutely play more mins! Averaging 29.9 FPs, with 24.5 mpg over those 4, with a very nice 1.22 FFPM, Davis is very attractive tonight at his price, AND as mentioned above, this is the highest total of the board tonight. His usage over the last 4 games at 14.9 isn’t anything to write home about, but his PIE of 18.6!, as well as 124.3 OFFRTG over those 4, is definitely meaningful in how he impacts the game when on the floor. So, I think he is an excellent gpp play tonight and very nice value as well.

THANK YOU for reading, I look forward to chatting with you all later today in the #SDSlackCHAT! GOOD LUCK!

MITCH

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