What is up, everyone! Welcome back, it is another Monday, and another new day and week! Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend, and are also ready for some NBA DFS! We are nearing the all-star break, in which will give us a nice little break from the action, so let’s not waste anymore time here! Tonight we have been gifted with a marvelous 6-gamer, so let’s see what we got…
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400)- Most will see the 2-OT game on Saturday against the Pelicans, will see he played 43 minutes, and may not really look too hard at Dinwiddie today, but I think you should. Dinwiddie comes in as a really nice option here tonight at his price, as he will get the Clippers at home, in which we will really hope Milos can go. For this play mainly, and either way if it’s Rivers or Milos, I’m fine either way, but we would rather have Teodosic for defensive-wise match up. Nonetheless, Dinwiddie has still be outstanding at home this season, and his home/road splits absolutely agree. In his last 5 at home, he has avg a nice 28.4 usage rate, while avg 40.83 FPs, on an avg of 32.6 mpg, and this was also all good for a pretty nifty 1.25 FPPM! The Clippers have allowed the 5th FPs on avg to the PG spot over their last ten contests as well, so we can add this factor into the mix. Just to touch a bit on home/rd: @ home- (30 games) 23.4 usage, 119 OFFRTG, 30.2 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 7.0 apg, 1.0 spg…on the road- (26 games) 19.6 usage, 111 OFFRTG, 27.1 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.4 apg, 0.3 spg. SOO, you can see what I mean by a pretty diverse set of splits here for Dinwiddie. I’ll take the shot, and will hopefully love the ownership% turn-out as well.
Zach Lavine ($6,900)– Was asked was I worried about Dunn returning? Get outtaaaa hereeeee. This is Zach Lavine’s team, folks. Over 33 FPs in his last 4, with 3 topping 37 or more, and 2 of those eclipsing 40 as well, even if Dunn does return, one- he could be on a def mins limit after so long on concussion protocol, and two- this could actually aid in Lavine’s ownership suppression, which we would absolutely invite with wide-open, loving arms. Lavine has avg 32.0% usage over his last 5 games (which is good for 7th most among guards playing 30+ mpg in that span), while avg 28.9 mpg. We know that Orlando has struggled mightily against the guard spot, so I am prepared to take full advantage of that here with Lavine at home tonight.
Tony J. Warren ($6,900)- Lets hope that Booker plays, but either way, I’m rolling out the contrarian style play here with Warren going against the Warriors at the Oracle. This game should come along with a pretty hefty total, which has not been put out yet because of the lack of Booker news, but either way if he plays or doesn’t, it should still be above 220, I’d say. The Warriors have been bleeding FPs to the SF spot over their L5 games, giving up the 2nd most FPs on avg to the position. Warren carries a 26.3 road usage rate, and has also seen at least 35 or more FPs in his last 6 of 7 road travels, while also seeing at least 33 minutes or more in all 7. I like the value here on Warren, in what should be a high-pace, up-tempo game, and hopefully he can exploit the match up as well.
Dario Saric ($6,400)– Absolutely love this match up here for Saric tonight, as the Kristaps-less Knicks travel into Philly. Since losing KP (it isn’t all the blame on him, they were gushing FPs to PF’s before he was injured) it has been nothing but a down-hill slide for FPs when it comes to the PF spot. The Knicks have allowed the 2nd most FPs on avg over their L5, as well as the MOST FPs on avg over their L10. This plays very nicely into Saric here tonight as he has seen a modest 20.4 usage rate over his L5 at home, with a 117.1 OFFRTG, and a pretty admirable 16.0 PIE (estimation of the player impact on the game while on the floor). Also, Saric has plugged in at least 30 or more FPs in his last 6 at home. I believe his price is fair tonight, and I think Saric could see upwards of 6.5x or so.
So, there you have it, a nice core that you can build around. After plugging these 4 in, you have around an average salary of $6k for the remainder of your squad, so should make for plenty of cash to use as needed! Good luck and let’s bink!