Welcome back to another Friday, good people! Hope everyone is enjoying their Friday so far, getting ready for the weekend! We have a lovely 9-game NBA slate for tonight on the DFS landscape, and as mentioned on the Twitter.com, I have changed the landscape of my article from now on as well. From now on, there will only be a core-4 article on bigger slates, and most of my notes will be posted in the SD Slack Chat, so if you aren’t a member of it yet, get us your email and get joined up, as there are plenty more notes that will be posted in there compared to these articles in the future! Let us begin!
PG- Steph Curry ($10,600)- Let’s not over-think this one. GS coming off an embarrassing loss in Utah in their previous game, where even Kerr was very agitated about the loss after the game, saying that his team just basically didn’t show up. I fully expect the Warriors to show up tonight in Sacramento, which is close enough to a home game. Anyways, Steph has a WONDERFUL match up here tonight as the Kings are allowing quite the FPs to opposing PGs, actually allowing the 2nd most on average over their last 10 and the 4th most on average over their last 5 to the spot. Fox has been a nice piece for the Kings lately, but that doesn’t really reflect his 112.5 DEFRTG, which is good for worse on the team on the season so far. Curry is carrying a 30.8 road usage so far this season, with a 119 OFFRTG, and a 16.2 PIE. Before the Utah debacle, Curry has eclipsed 44.5 FPs in 7 of his last 8 road games, with four of those reaching 50.3 fps or more as well. I expect a smash spot here for Steph tonight in SAC.
SF- Khris Middleton ($7,300)- After Giannis took a fall in last night’s game and twisted his ankle “pretty badly,” his status for tonight is now questionable. With this being on a B2B, I would not be surprised at all if they decided to sit him tonight. The Bucks could see themselves without the services of both Giannis and Bledsoe (haven’t seen any news on him yet), in which would make a massive usage bump in the favor of Middleton here tonight. To bring numbers to that bump, without Giannis only, Middleton has seen a usage rate of 34.8% good for an 8.6% bump. Without both Giannis AND Bledsoe, Middleton sees his usage rise even further to 38.1%, good for a 11.9% bump in usage! This could be a huge spot for Middleton and he has produced in just about every game that Giannis has missed, and this is likely the one of the few times both he and Bledsoe could possibly sit. In Middleton’s last 4 at home, he has notched 41, 43.3, 32.3, and 51 FP totals. He has already seen a usage of 28.2% in his last 5 games with a 114.1 OFFRTG and a 14.2 PIE, and this was with Giannis and Bledsoe. Vs the East so far this season, Middleton has seen a 25.3 usage, averaging 20.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.9 apg, and 1.4 spg. So, if this falls exactly like it may, or even if just one sits, Middleton could still be in line for a nice game tonight.
PF- Zach Randolph ($6,200)- Z-Bo lovessss playing against the top competition in the NBA, and he is such a competitor. Over his last 5 contests, he has seen a monster usage rate of 28.7%, and an even higher rate at 29.3% over his last 10 games. The Kings have been thin in the frontcourt lately, but should get WCS back tonight, but also should still be without Skal Labissiere. Either way, Z-Bo is still seeing a 27.1 usage rate in home games on the season, averaging 14.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.3 aog, and 1.0 spg. It is noteworthy that over the last 10 games, the Warriors are allowing the MOST FPs on average to the PF spot. In the lone game that these two teams squared off earlier this season, Z-Bo Played 22 minutes, saw a monster 29.9 usage rate, and notched out 11 points, 6 boards, 2 dimes, and 1 steal on 4 of 11 FGs and 1-3 from behind the arc, and it was in the Bay area as well. I expect Z-Bo to be a huge part of this game tonight, and I expect him to have quite the game.
C- Jarrett Allen ($4,600)- For this core to work, there has to be a little give and take with the salary spacing, so I think Allen could be a nice low-end fit here as he has claimed the starting C position and has now played 20 minutes or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Also, in his last 3 of 5, he has recorded FP totals of 25 or more, while 2 of those eclipsed 31.3 FPs. The Lakers are allowing the most FPs on average to the C spot on the season so far, and I believe this could be a really nice spot for Allen tonight. Also, his 18.2 usage rate over his last 5 games is modest for his time on the floor, 21.6 mpg average, and his PIE of 17.5 over those 5 games is the HIGHEST on the team since he took the C role. So, this allows some salary relief with the other 3 parts of this core, and I like it quite nicely.
So, that is where I am going to start tonight, I do have plenty more notes for tonight’s slate, and if you would like to see what those are, JOIN THE CHAT (if you haven’t already). If not, well, you are missing out! GL!