THE NBA IS BACKKKK! Glad to be with you fine folks, as well as to have another illustrious, wonderful day in the NBA DFS scene! I know we are all excited about the return, so I will keep the small talk minimal and get right into this thing!
Kemba Walker ($8,600)– Most may say the string of very nice productive games that Kemba had in the 6-8 games prior to the ASB was somewhat due to his “snub,” but he ended up getting to play in the All-Star game after all. Now, I believe I will go along and say that Kemba is just a beast and that was really just not the case, and I believe he will continue to be the monster force for the Hornets for the remainder of the season. Kemba has been especially good on his home floor so far in the first half of this season, as well as many prior seasons and I believe this trend will absolutely continue tonight, as he gets a pretty nice matchup here with the Nets. The nets had allowed the 2nd most FPs on average to the PG spot in their prior 10 games before the break. His last 3 games at home resulted in FP totals of 44, 58.8, and 46.5. Also, in his prior 5 home contests, his usage ramped up immensely up to 32.2%, which is quite a jump from his season average at home of 28.4%. I think that Kemba could also see some suppressed ownership tonight with guys up at the top of the PG list such as Russ, Steph, and newly added Bradley Beal with no John Wall still (at least on DK). For all these reasons, and for the fact that I believe I am BUILDING AROUND THIS SNEAKY CONTRARIAN GAME tonight as I think it is a very stackable game, I believe Walker’s price is way more feasible with the projection of 48-51 FPs tonight. Steph has barely touched that number in his last 7-8 games, and well, Russ is going to cost you a few decent roster spots at his 11.5K price tag. So, I do really like some Kemba for tonight.
Allen Crabbe ($5,300)– Most of my SDSlackChat guys reading this will say they have mentioned Crabbe quite a bit lately, and I have to say embarrassingly that I was NOT one of those guys, and sure enough I did pay for that. However, I do feel like Crabbe is definitely a very nice option for tonight’s slate in the game stack of Brooklyn and Charlotte as mentioned above. The Hornets have been getting ravaged by SGs lately, to put numbers to this statement, they have allowed SGs to score at LEAST 23 REAL points or more in their last 6 of 7 games! That’s pretty massive if you ask me. This bodes well and fits exclusively into Crabbe’s game as he is mostly known for his scoring prowess. The Hornets are also allowing the 6th most FPs on average to the SG spot in their prior 10 games before the break, as well as the 5th most in the 5 prior contests as well. This even adds more context to why I feel Crabbe is a fabulous play at his price, and it does help to mention he is pretty locked into this SG role even with DAR back, as he has played at least 30 mins or more in his last 6 of 7 contests. Carrying a modest 21.5% usage, I think this price is more than accommodating.
Otto Porter ($7,300)– I believe this price will turn quite a few people off of Porter tonight, and of course with guys like LBJ and KD up at the top of the SF list, it will absolutely allow Porter to see some very low ownership. However, if you consider his 8-9 games before the break, you saw that Porter turned up his production quite nicely after basically going missing for a pretty decent length before this span. It could be because Wall went out with injury (it was!) and everyone knew Beal would be the key afterwards, so it allowed him to get some extra looks, but his usage was not exactly a huge boost as it was steady around the 21.5%, but it did jump to 23.5% with no Wall and this was good for a 3.9% jump, which was also good for the highest usage bump on the team with Beal slightly behind (OK, I lied about it not jumping “much”). Also, he was particularly good at home as well as his last 3 home games saw FP totals of 49.8 against BOSTON, 42.3 against TORONTO, and 43.0 against OKC. All three opponents are better than average at defending the SF spot with maybe a small exception to Boston. Either way, hopefully Porter picks up right where he left off before the break, as he notched at least 33 FPs or more in 7 of his last 8 games.
Dwight Howard (8,400)– I told you guys I was building around this game, and I say this because I think it’s really sneaky, both teams are very suspect at many positions, and EVERYONE will be playing GS and CLE game. So, hopefully we can snap off a nice game stack with this game and catch some low ownership, in which is definitely what you are seeking in GPPs (all I play). SO, Howard is obviously a must here for this game as the Nets are just atrocious against the C spot and have been all season no matter who they throw out there. The towel boy might even be able to play C for them at the current time. However, I do think Howard’s ownership will be up there, but I don’t mind it for this spot, because it should absolutely be a SMASH SPOT. The Nets have allowed the MOST FPs on average to the C spot on the season, as well as the 3rd most on average over their L5 games and the 2nd most on average over their L10, so we know the matchup is more than there. He has carried a modest usage of 21.6% over his last 10 games, and has also accrued at least 40 or more FPs in his last 6 of 7 contests at home, and I do not believe he should see any less than 40 FPs tonight as well. GET HIM IN.
So, there you have it for the post-ASB NBA Slate we are finally returned with! Hope you all enjoyed this and I look forward to chatting later today in the SDSlackChat!! GOOD LUCK!