Sup guys, tonight we have an 8 game NBA slate that locks at 6 PM CST. There are some good games there tonight and the slate has value but not too much which is what I like to hear. When there is too much value, everyone goes stars and scrubs and it just sucks (evidenced by me losing money with a 349.5 on Saturday). Okay, enough whining from me, lets break down the slate.
- Ben Simmons $14,900: I love Ben Simmons. He is almost matchup proof. And tonight, he gets a favorable matchup. CHA is 4th worst vs PG over last 4 weeks. He is averaging 44.2 FP in 34.5 minutes @ home. 8 of his last 10 games he has had 36 or more and has 43.25, 46, and 55.5 in his last 3 games.
- Lonzo Ball $13,400: ZO2 always has a nice floor. He regularly scores 30 FPs and scores below 10 real points. On the road he is averaging 37.4 in 34.4 minutes. He plays a lot and despite IND featuring some decent defenders is still a solid option at a discount.
- Goran Dragic $12,200: Dragic put up 42.8 FP in 34.2 minutes vs Denver earlier this year. Miami also has their fair share of injuries right now. With those, Dragic sees a 31% usage rate and 1.13 FPPM. Denver is not good vs PG and this game has a competitive environment (2 point spread).
- D’Angelo Russell $11,900: Memphis has been 5th worst vs PG over the last 4 weeks. 6 of his last 10 games he has scored 30 or more FP with 3 of those being over 40 FP. BKN has been playing hard after the all star break so I don’t expect him to stop.
I’m not writing up Lebron but I’m not talking ANYONE off of him. If you like some of the cheaper plays, roll him out there. He is a man on a mission and is better at home. I just prefer a slightly more balanced approach.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo $19,600: I’m not sure why he is under 20k. He doesn’t have Lebron’s floor, but he has his upside. He is averaging 60.7 FP over 3 games vs CLE and this game has the highest total with a 2.5 point spread. CLE is 3rd worst vs PF so another 60 bomb could be on deck.
- Joel Embiid $16,900: Embiid is averaging 47.2 FP in 31 minutes at home. He scored 53.5 & 30 vs CHA over 2 games this year. The 30 was more recent so I expect a little revenge. He has 3 straight games over 50 FP so I am very comfortable firing him up.
- Julius Randle and LaMarcus Aldridge are both solid plays as usual. Both are at $15,400 which is a little more than I like to pay for them but if you need someone in that range both are good. I give a slight edge to Aldridge in a game with 3 missing GS studs.
- Marc Gasol $14,500 (if he plays): Fun fact: Marc Gasol has scored 30 or more FP in 19 of his last 20 games. That floor is outstanding. He now faces the 2nd worst team vs C. He scores slightly less on the road, but if he plays the matchup and consistency are tough to pass on.
The best value is at the guard position today. We have Jeremy Lamb and Cameron Payne who are both elite value plays. They could flop, but they are both going to be so chalky I saw take the savings and if they’re 80% owned you’re fine in cash games. I wouldn’t be worried. Antonio Blakeney is a GPP cheap play that could be used as leverage in tournaments off Payne. Wayne Ellington is fine too but not my favorite
For forwards, Jeff Green is my favorite. He is still around 9k and has been very solid lately. He should play 30 or more minutes even if Kevin love is active. Bam Adebayo is a GPP shot at best but has upside. Olynk is viable as well. James Johnson has played well in wake of the injuries so is worth a look too.
That is all I have for tonight guys, best of luck to everyone!