Sup guys, it’s good to be back. I’ve been really busy this week as it is my last week of school before spring break. I haven’t had a ton of time to write these articles but I have had enough time to lose money. Today I’m looking to get back on track. We have a 5 game slate that locks at 6 PM CST. It is tough to find value tonight but there are a lot of expensive options to like. Go figure. However, I’m going to break down my favorite targets for tonight.
I don’t even want to include Russell Westbrook as a play because of how obvious he is. A matchup against the Suns (a team he has averaged 68 FP against this year) at home is just a dream. Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot of value I personally like. He is far and away the best play so if you can make it work go nuts.
Devin Booker $16,200: Since Roberson has gone down, OKC is the 2nd worst team in the league vs SG. Booker just lit them up for 61 FP on March 2nd. He is actually better on the road and is the main target for PHO to keep this game close.
Kemba Walker $15,200: We have Kemba on a massive discount compared to his DK price ($8,700). Brooklyn is 3rd worst vs PG over the last 4 weeks and Walker just put up 31/7 on them on Feb. 22. He is averaging 39.1 at home and has upside at this price.
Kyrie Irving $14,700: Minnesota has been 5th worst vs PG over the last 4 weeks. Irving is averaging 40.8 FPPG on the road this year. He needs 36.75 FP to pay of his salary and has reached or exceeded that in 5 of his last 6. This game has a tight spread so the minutes should be there. 42.8 FP against them earlier this season.
Jeff Teague $13,400 GPP: Since Butler went down on Feb. 23, Teague has scored 50.75, 41, 30, and 37 FP. The 37 came against Utah in 26 minutes before he was ejected. Utah is only 2 spots above Boston in defense vs PG and both are considered some of the leagues best. While I don’t love the matchup, he sees a 27.3% usage rate and 1.08 FPPM with Butler off the floor. He will probably go over looked tonight.
D’Angelo Russell $12,400: DLo is back to being the head honcho after his injury. He currently sees a 32.5% usage rate and 1.15 FPPM. He has seen 30+ minutes in 5 of his last 10, and in those he has had 3 40 FP games with a floor of 33. The Nets have no actual reason to tank and Rotogrinders projects him for 33 minutes so I think he has a great shot at paying off this price tag.
A couple more tournament plays are Steph Curry and Dejounte Murray. Murray will attempt to defend Curry so he should play a good amount. However, his minutes are inconsistent so that is why I’m making him a tournament play. Curry is pretty cheap and should also probably go overlooked. If the game somehow stays close he could go off at low ownership.
Karl Anthony Towns $17,400: KAT’s home/road splits are much in favor of him playing at home. He is averaging 47.3 FPPG at home and he gets to face the Celtics in Minnesota tonight. The spread comes in at only 2 points so we should have a solid matchup. Boston is okay vs C position but last time Towns has 25/23 against them for 61 FP.
Dwight Howard $15,200 GPP: Brooklyn is horrid vs C. Howard is better at home. But Howard is inconsistent. He is a tournament play with massive, massive upside.
LaMarcus Aldridge $14,100: He is coming off a rough last game but tonight he should get right. There is no Pau and no Leonard which gives him a 31.4% usage rate and 1.23 FPPM. GSW is solid vs PF but he has avergaed 42.6 in 32.4 minutes vs them this year. He is also slightly better on the road. They will need him to make this game respectable.
Draymond Green $13,700: He is at a wonderful price at just the right time. The Spurs (yes, the Spurs) have been the WORST at defending PF over the last 4 weeks. He is averaging 40.1 FP in 2 games against them this season. He sees better FPPM production at home and should be helped by no Pau down low.
Steven Adams $12,700: This guy is the ultimate cash game play. He is averaging 33.9 FPPG at home and is now facing the Suns who are by far worst in the league at defending C. His last 3 home games he has scored 32, 33, 51.75. He hasn’t done a ton against PHO this year but this is a spot he should be able to.
Saric is worthy of a tournament look (thank you Sam Moran). He is consistent normally but is priced higher than I’d like. However, he has devoured Miami in their 3 meetings this year so I think he could go for 40 at low ownership.
Value is bad tonight. There isn’t a ton I feel comfortable with. Bjelica and Winslow are the main two I’m considering. You have Crawford who is really eh and I probably won’t have exposure to but he is there. Bender has played decent minutes lately so maybe he can be look for tournaments along with Marquise Chriss. However, they are far from safe. McConnel is my mega salary saver for no other reason than he is $6,800. His last 10 games include a 53 FP performance and a 5 FP performance. He is worth a long shot at that price and can help you afford other expensive high upside options.