I apologize for the lack of The Morning After post today. I was busy working on some stuff for school and was unable to write it up. My lineup was okay yesterday but nothing great and my bank roll took a hit. I am here tonight in an effort to redeem myself. Tonight’s slate features 6 games that lock at 6:30 CST. The prime time game is BOS/HOU but the highest total comes from the CLE/DEN game. I think Harden, Westbrook, and Lebron all have reasons to be played tonight. I’d side with Lebron due to the fact he is in the game with the highest total but you really could go anywhere for a stud.
Damian Lillard $16,400: He put up 64.8 FP vs OKC earlier this year and is averaging 45 FP at home. He may go underowned due to the superstars. I like his floor and ceiling.
Chris Paul $14,400: Paul has some major home/road splits. He is averaging 45.3 FPPG at home and 40 on the road. He has slightly slumped lately and that is why his price has seen such a reduction. However, he has been solid in his recent home games. He also is playing on a primetime game so I expect him to show up.
Gordan Dragic $13,600: Dragic is averaging 25 points, 8.7 assists, and 3.7 rebounds in 3 games against DET this year. Detroit is notoriously soft against PG and in their last matchup he lit them up for 53 FP. No Ellington or Tyler Johnson gives him a slight usage boost and locks him in for a few more minutes. He has seen 30+ minutes 8 times in his last 10 games and hasn’t scored under 30 in any of them.
CJ McCollum $13,000: CJ was almost a lineup KILLER the other night. Thank goodness Lillard bailed us out. He is averaging 35.6 FPPG at home and 24.5, 4, 3 in 2 games vs OKC. Those games were a while ago and now with no Roberson OKC is 4th worst vs SG.
Isaiah Thomas $10,700: IT has seen a minutes increase over each of his last 4 games. Josh Hart is now out so it leaves him and Lonzo as the sole PGs. He has had insane usage since joining the Lakers and he should see a few extra minutes tonight.
I’m not writing up Jokic because I don’t like how Millsap being back has impacted him. He has as much upside as anyone but he also is worse on the road. I don’t want to play him for cash but if you have multiple lineups you should get some exposure to him.
Paul George $16,000: I wasn’t on him until Melo got ruled out. But without him, he sees an 8.1% usage bump and 1.28 FPPM. He should also be under owned tonight.
Blake Griffin $13,800: He is extremely priced down. I know he has struggled lately but this is an all time low pricing for him. Miami is okay against PF and he still sees a 29.4% usage rate and 1.1 FPPM. This is too cheap for Blake.
Julius Randle $13,700: With the current injuries, he has a 28.5% usage rate and 1.18 FPPM. San Antonio is missing Aldridge so he should get a much softer matchup. He has been outstanding lately and we get him at a good price.
Pau Gasol and Rudy Gay: Both will probably be chalky due to the missing LMA & Leonard. They both see big usage bumps and increase in points per minute with them off the floor. Pau is safer for cash while Gay probably has more upside.
We actually don’t get a ton of value today due to the fact MEM/ORL is not on our slate. The Heat have no Bam so Kelly Olynk is an alright replacement. He has upside for sure but a kinda low floor. Justise Winslow is also viable again. I do like Dwayne Wade as he has been on fire since returning to Miami. James Johnson is an option as well. Besides the Heat, you can consider David Bertans and Patty Mills. I don’t love either of them but they’re alright. A sneaky low owned value play is Tristan Thompson. He has performed well at home and gets a high total. He is not for the faint of heart but worth a look.