THE SNAP TOUCH AND TARGET REPORT THRU WEEK 10

@Bishphat identifies buy low and potential trade targets through volume and usage

RUNNING BACK TARGETS THRU WEEK 10

MATT BREIDA, RB SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Matt Breida has never had more than 16 touches in a game this season.  In fact, other than his (1) 16 touch effort in Week 8, Breida’s previous high was 14 touches. In Week 10, Breida had 20 touches and 28.0 total fantasy points for his best outing of the season.  He has been quietly good and the clear #1 running back in the bay:

  • 43.8% breakaway (6th)*
  • 277 yards on runs of 15+ (6th)
  • 11 runs of 15+ yards (5th)
  • 632 rush yards (7th)
  • 5.6 YPC (4th)
  • 28 First Downs (12th)
  • 20 runs of 10+ yards (7th)
  • 334 YCO (15th)

*Breakaway shows which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).

Breida is not much of a receiver, only averaging 1.8 targets per game and 13.0 routes run per game (32nd), but he is durable and 4th in the NFL in yards per carry.  The 49ers are the 3rd best run blocking unit in the NFL, according to PFF, and the whole Nick Mullins narrative could fire this team up, making them more competitive and creating an opportunity to run the ball more.  Breida could be a key piece down the stretch is he can stay healthy. He can be acquired dirt cheap right now and will only add depth to your running back resume going into the playoffs.

Upcoming Schedule (Points Allowed to Running Backs):

Week 12: TB – 22.3 FPPG (9th)

Week 13: SEA – 17.5 FPPG (20th)

Week 14: DEN – 20.8 FPPG (12th)

Week 15: SEA – 17.5 FPPG (20th)

Week 16: CHI – 11.8 FPPG (32nd)

RUNNING BACK POINTS PER SNAP THRU WEEK 10

RUNNING BACK TOUCHES THRU WEEK 10

CHRIS CARSON, RB SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Let’s face it. The Seattle backfield is complicated, but Chris Carson is playing well this season.

In the 3 games where Carson has touched the ball 20+ times, he is averaging 18.2 Fantasy Points per Game. In that span, he is averaging 25.3 carries per game (1st) and 27.0 touches per game (2nd).

In games where he has touched the ball less than 10 times, he is averaging 6.0 Fantasy points per Game. Here’s a few of his stats worth mentioning on the season:

  • 3.5 YAC per attempt (2nd)
  • 4.5 ypc (14TH)
  • (3) 100 YARD GAMES (4TH)
  • 22 Tackles Avoided (11th)

Carson is not much of a receiver, averaging 8.4 routes run per game, which doesn’t crack the Top 50 among Running Backs, but he is a volume guy who thrives on usage. He was inactive week 10 due to injury and Rashaad Penny saw most of the workload. While most football fans are expecting Seattle to unleash Rashaad Penny after last week’s performance (12-108-1), Carson has played well enough to retain the starting job and should carry it until injury or demotion. If you are the Rashaad Penny owner, it wouldn’t hurt to try to make a deal for Carson.  If you don’t own Penny, now is the perfect time to try to acquire Carson because most will be fading him after Penny’s impressive performance last week.  Either way, Carson can be very helpful down the stretch and a useful back going into the playoffs.

Upcoming Schedule (Points Allowed to Running Backs):

Week 11: GB – 18.9 FPPG (18th)

Week 12: CAR – 20.8 FPPG (23rd)

Week 13: SF – 19.2 FPPG (15th)

Week 14: MIN – 15.8 FPPG (25th)

Week 15: SF – 19.2 FPPG (15th)

Week 16: KC – 27.5 FPPG (1ST)

WIDE RECEIVER TARGETS THRU WEEK 10

ROBERT WOODS, WR LOS ANGELES RAMS

Robert Woods is currently WR9 in fantasy and his star may be about to get even brighter. He is well entrenched in the Top 15 in most statistical categories. What’s more impressive is he is doing it in a system with 3 other uber talented playmakers. Here are some of his numbers year to date:

  • 77 targets (13th)
  • 55 Receptions (12th)
  • 832 yards (9th)
  • 15.1 YPR (9th)
  • 281 YAC (10th)
  • 5.1 YAC per Rec (12th)
  • 46 First Downs (4th)
  • 1 Drop, 0 fumbles
  • 114.2 passer rating when targeted (10th)

Woods is not really a deep threat, as only 9 of his 77 total targets have been 20 yards or more (35th). But with Cooper Kupp out for the season, the Rams are going to need someone to fill the slot (see what I did there). And Woods is more than capable. Woods from the slot:

  • 44.3% Snaps from the Slot
  • 29 Targets (25th)
  • 23 receptions (22nd)
  • 312 yards (18th)
  • 2 TDs (14th)
  • 79.3% catch rate (18th)

He is also running 35.2 routes per game(11th), with an efficient 2.36 yards per route run (11th). He is the  4th highest rated receiver as per PFF and may be in for an increased workload. His current value in the trade market would fetch you Alshon Jeffrey or Marlon Mack in a 1 for 1, which is undervaluing his potential and shows you how much the market is fading him. If you need help at WR, make a play now because he is only going to get better.

Upcoming Schedule (Points Allowed to Wide Receivers):

Week 11: KC – 21.4 FPPG (24th)

Week 13: DET – 25.6 FPPG (10TH)

Week 14: CHI – 25.4 FPPG (13TH)

Week 15: PHI – 26.5 FPPG (6TH)

Week 16: ARZ – 21.7 FPPG (23rd)

WIDE RECEIVER FANTASY POINTS THRU WEEK 10

KENNY GOLLADAY, WR DETROIT LIONS

It feels like we have been waiting for the Kenny Golladay breakout for a long time. Everyone agrees that this kid has something special, but hasn’t been able to put it all together. With Golden Tate gone and Marvin Jones questionable with a knee injury, Golladay could see a massive uptick in volume and Babytron could be ready for an offensive outburst. He is running more routes in the passing game:

  • 40.2 Routes run per game on season (12th)
  • 47.0 routes run per game last 3 weeks (1st)
  • 49.0 routes run per game Week 10 (3rd)

While he is averaging 6.5 Targets per game on the season (36th), he was targeted 12 times (1st) in Week 10. With no Tate and potentially no Jones, Golladay could be in for Julio-like targets. His current 66% catch rate doesn’t even put him in the Top 50 in the NFL (67th), but the added volume going forward could put him in WR2 range. Golladay is a perfect Buy Low candidate and one you may want to take a gamble on going into the playoffs. It could pay dividends down the stretch.

Upcoming Schedule (Points Allowed to Wide Receivers):

Week 11: CAR – 25.0 FPPG (15TH)

Week 12: CHI – 25.4 FPPG (13TH)

Week 13: LAR – 24.7 FPPG (16TH)

Week 14: ARI – 21.7 FPPG (23RD)

Week 15: BUF – 17.1 FPPG (32ND)

Week 16: MIN – 18.2 FPPG (30TH)

RICKY SEALS-JONES, TE ARIZONA CARDINALS

I have been very high on RSJ all season. With Tight Ends and the current dumpster fire at the position, volume is king and RSJ has been running receiving routes this season similar to a Top 5 Tight End. The opportunity was there, but week after week there was little to no production and he simply became an afterthought. But with the firing of Mike McCoy and the promotion of Byron Leftwich to Offensive Coordinator, David Johnson may not be the only player seeing his stock rise:

RSJ UNDER MIKE MCCOY

  • 25.7 Routes run per Game under McCoy (15th)
  • 4.7 Targets per game (14th)

RSJ UNDER BYRON LEFTWICH

  • 36.5 routes run LAST 2 GAMES (2nd)
  • 37.0 Routes run WEEK 10 (3rd)

 

  • 6.5 Targets per Game (9th)
  • 9.0 Targets Week 10 (4th)

RSJ is running 10 more routes per game under Leftwich and is being targeted almost 2 more times. Leftwich is clearly putting this athletic Tight End in a position to thrive and it shouldn’t be much longer until we see the breakout.  He may be available on your waiver wire, so pick him up and reep the rewards.

Upcoming Schedule (Points Allowed to Tight Ends):

Week 11: OAK – 10.2 FPPG (5TH)

Week 12: LAC – 7.4 FPPG (19TH)

Week 13: GB – 3.8 FPPG (31ST)

Week 14: DET – 8.2 FPPG (15TH)

Week 15: ATL – 7.2 FPPG (20TH)

Week 16: LAR – 8.0 FPPG (16TH)

 

 

 

 

 

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