THE SNAP TOUCH AND TARGET REPORT THRU WEEK 9

@Bishphat identifie potential trade targets through trends and usage

THE SNAP TOUCH AND TARGET REPORT THRU WEEK 9

By: Matt Bishop

@Bishphat on Twitter

RUNNING BACK TARGETS THRU WEEK 9:

 

 

NICK CHUBB, RB CLEVELAND BROWNS

In a surprising Week 7 move, Carlos Hyde was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars, leaving behind a vacant backfield and a massive opportunity for Nick Chubb in Cleveland. Fantasy owners could rejoice, knowing the only other back in the equation in Cleveland was Duke Johnson, a 3rd down pass catching back, who would not cut into his volume.  If you look at Chubb’s full season numbers, they aren’t overly impressive, but impressive none the less for a rookie:

NICK CHUBB 2018 FULL SEASON STATS:                

403 rush yards (21st)

5.4 YPC (6th)

22 First downs (15th)

13 runs 10+ yards (13th)

341 yards after contact (10th)

18 Tackles Avoided (13th)

113.7 elusive rating (1st)

7 runs 15+ yards (11th)                                                 

49.1% breakaway (3rd)

NICK CHUBB WEEkS 7, 8, 9

19.3 carries per game (4TH)

230 rush yards (7th)

16 First Downs (1st)

1.0 Receptions per Game (44th)

169 yards after contact (2nd)

10 Tackles Avoided (2nd)

13.3 Fantasy Points per Game (21st)

4.0 Yards per Carry (14th)

2.0 Targets per Game (39th)

9 runs 10+ yards (1st)

*ELUSIVE RATING =  

(TACKLES AVOIDED) / (CARRIES + RECEPTIONS) * (YARDS AFTER CONTACT PER ATTEMPT * 100)

*BREAKAWAY PERCENTAGE =

The PFF “Breakaway Percentage” shows which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).

If you look at his last 3 games, he is getting bellcow volume and running like a potential breakout. But no one takes notice because he is only averaging 13.3 Fantasy Points per Game (21st) on 4.0 Yards per Carry (14th).  He is also not a pass catcher, averaging 2.0 targets per game.

People are high on Nick Chubb right now, but there is really no reason to be because he hasn’t done anything yet.  The Browns have a running back friendly schedule coming up, squaring off against the Falcons (4th), Bengals for 2 games (9th) and the Broncos (12th), who are all in the bottom 12 in run defenses in the NFL.  The Browns are throwing a ton, averaging 37.9 attempts per game (7th), which should open up the run for Chubb.  Nick Chubb could be a league winner and you may want to get him now because a 3 Touchdown game is coming.

SEE EVERY NICK CHUBB RUSH AND TARGET FOR WEEK 9 VS. KANSAS CITY HERE

RUNNING BACK TOUCHES THRU WEEK 9:

ISAIAH CROWELL, RB NEW YORK JETS

This pains me to say and I literally have 0 confidence in the following statement, but Isaiah Crowell may be in for some positive regression.  We have all trusted him in a big spot, only to be let down week after week.  If you stand back and view his numbers for the season, he is an unproductive fantasy investment and a disappointment at any draft position:

  • 6.2 Fantasy PPG last 4 Weeks (48th)
  • 11.5 Fantasy PPG SEASON (29th)
  • 19 first downs (19th)
  • 11 runs 10+ yards (15th)
  • 17 tackles avoided (12th)
  • 118 total touches (19th)

But when you pay attention to the advanced metrics and the overall body of work, you start to see a pattern.  Isaiah Crowell is making the most out of his opportunities and excels in yards after contact:

  • 265 total yards on runs of 15+ yards (4th)
  • 49.7% breakaway (2nd)
  • 533 rush yards (8th)
  • 5.0 YPC (4th)
  • 362 yards after contact (8th)
  • 3.38 yards after contact per att (2nd)
  • 57.3 elusive rating (8th)

The New York Jets are running the ball 43.7% of the time (10th) and Crowell will see a significant work load going forward.  Crowell is barely a factor in the pass game (1.5 targets per game) and will continue to lose snaps to Elijah McGuire and Trenton Cannon, but Crowell should still be the focal point of this backfield.  He may be worth targeting as running back depth for your bench going into the fantasy playoffs.  He will never be an elite option, but hopefully those numbers are suggesting some breaks in his favor.

WIDE RECEIVER TARGETS THRU WEEK 9:

GOLDEN TATE, WR PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Golden Tate is having one of his best statistical seasons of his career, but is flying under the radar in the process. His numbers really do not fly off the page, being that he is used to seeing targets at the line of scrimmage and makes his living off yards after the catch.  Golden Tate’s 2018 Season Stats:

  • 62 targets (19th) 8.8 per game
  • 11.8 YPC (24th)
  • 23 First Downs (25th)
  • 105.4 Passer Rating when targeted (14th)
  • 248 routes run, or 35.4 Routes Run per Game (29th)
  • 2.08 yards per route run (14th)

If you look a little deeper into his 2018 profile, he is doing some impressive things and positive regression may be coming:

  • 283 Yards after Catch (5th)
  • 6.4 YAC per Reception (1st)
  • 13 Tackles Avoided (2nd)

He is playing 70.2% of his snaps from the slot this season and is being targeted on 21.8% of those snaps (7th).  However, he has 4 drops from the slot (2nd), a 13.3% drop rate (3rd) and a 68.4% reception rate from the slot (18th) this season.

He is averaging 6.3 receptions per game and 73.9 yards per game, which are the best marks of his career, all with a 71% catch rate (11th) and 6 drops (2nd). His catch rate is a career low, which surely means positive regression is coming.  No one knows what his role is Philly will be with Nelson Agholor manning the slot, but lining him up out wide may increase his fantasy value and help fantasy owners down the stretch.  Buy Low while you can.

WIDE RECEIVER FANTASY POINTS THRU WEEK 9:

STERLING SHEPARD, WR NEW YORK GIANTS

Sterling Shepard is the forgotten piece in the New York Giants terrible season.  He is averaging 8.0 targets per game (20th) and 14.2 Fantasy Points per Game (23rd) in his last 5 games.  His stats through week 9 are what we had expected:

  • 57 targets (23rd)
  • 70.2% reception rate (15th)
  • 542 Receiving yards (20th)
  • 13.6 YPR (11th) 210 YAC (19th)
  • 5.3 YAC per Reception (6th)
  • 28 First Downs (16th)
  • 104.6 Passer Rating when targeted (15th)

However, he has found a home as the New York Giants primary slot receiver.  He has played 70% of his  snaps from the slot (16th) this season.  He has been targeted 41 times from slot (8th) and has been targeted on 17.2% of his snaps from the slot (15th). He has 362 yards from slot (7th) and 1.52 yards per route run from the slot (9th).

He will face off against the Washington Redskins Week 14 (1st) and the Tennessee Titans Week 15 (5th), who are badly struggling against slot receivers. Why do I mention this? Because Weeks 14 and 15 are right in the heart of your fantasy playoff. I don’t see Shepard becoming an elite option, but could be a solid #2 WR down the stretch and may be worth targeting in trade talks.

OJ HOWARD, TE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

For those who aren’t paying attention, OJ Howard is playing like an elite Tight End.  He is currently TE5 in terms of Fantasy Points and is averaging 13.1 Fantasy Points per Game, which is 6th among Tight Ends. He has been unaffected by the change in signal callers in Tampa Bay and continues to play like a top option at a position with little upside.  OJ Howard’s 2018 stats:

  • OJ Howard 39 Targets (12th)
  • 472 Receiving Yards (5th)
  • 5 TDs (3rd)
  • 16.9 Yards per Reception (1st)
  • 182 Yards after the Catch (6th)
  • 23 First Downs (5th)
  • 130.6 Passer Rating when targeted (4th)
  • 5 Avoided Tackles (4th)
  • 2.46 Yards per Route Run (3rd)
  • 192 Routes Run (16th)

People are also very high on OJ Howard and you will not be able to acquire him cheap.  The Bucs schedule is very favorable to Tight Ends in the coming weeks and he could be a very valuable asset come playoff time.  If you’re struggling at Tight End, make a play for him now.

 

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