UFC 227 Betting and DFS Breakdown
Well UFC on Fox did not disappoint as we had a great night of fights…UFC 227 isn’t the most stacked card, but it has some interesting matchups and two rematches that will be sure to deliver.
Henry Cejudo (12-2) +390 vs Demetrious Johnson (27-2-1) -490
Out of all the fights on this card, this is by far the one I’m looking forward to the most. These two met back in 2016 and it didn’t even last a a full round. Cejudo landed a takedown on Johnson, and Johnson was able to get back to his feet and it was all Mighty Mouse after that. Johnson was able to do some impressive work in the clinch with knees to the body, and when he landed one to Cejudo’s head it was the beginning of the end.
Fast forward two years later and DJ is still as dominant as ever, while Cejudo has really grown as a mixed martial artist destroying Wilson Reis and dominating Sergio Pettis. Cejudo did drop a split decision to Joseph Benavidez after his fight with DJ, but go back and watch that fight again and you have to admit that Cejudo got robbed.
I think Cejudo has made significant strides and I’m sure he’s worked on his clinch game and his striking has improved dramatically. Demetrious Johnson is the total package, probably one of the most well-rounded guys the UFC has ever seen. I just think Cejudo has the tools to end his championship reign, I’m taking a shot with Cejudo.
Cejudo via unanimous decision
Cody Garbrandt (11-1) +105 vs TJ Dillashaw (16-3) -125
Honestly this is a coin flip. I think TJ is definitely the more technical striker, but Cody definitely got the best of him in thew first round in their previous meeting. I just think Cody let his emotions get the best of him and I think he just got careless and TJ tagged him. If Cody can fight a smart fight like he did against Dominick Cruz, he can win this, but he needs to stick to the game plan and not let his emotions come in to play. This line should be a pick in my opinion, but I do think Cody gets the job done on Saturday night. I think this one goes a lot longer than the last encounter, and right now you there’s a nice prop on the fight starting round 4 at a pretty good plus price. Fight goes to a decision is currently +175, which isn’t bad either. I just think you’ll see both fighters a bit more cautious this go around.
Cody Garbrandt via unanimous decision
Marlon Vera $9300: Vera is one of the bigger favorites on the card, and while he’s on a 2 fight skid he has finished Brad Pickett and Brian Kelleher back in 2017. Buren has really nothing to offer and coming off a loss to Rolando Dy. I would imagine Buren will try to take Vera down, but I think Vera is the far superior fighter. Vera will be in a lineup or two.
Demetrious Johnson $9400: it should come to no surprise that Johnson is the highest priced fighter here. I actually like Cejudo here, but I will have Johnson in a lineup. It would be absolutely ignorant not to do so if someone is playing with multiple lineups, due to the fact that he’s scored more than 100 fpts in 8 of his last 10 fights. Not to mention he’s scored 169 fpts against Ray Borg in his last time out. Will he score that against Cejudo? Doubtful, but he’s just too damn good not to consider him.
I’m passing on…
Renato Moicano $9100: I will say one thing, Moicano is one of my favorite fighters, but I highly doubt he finishes a game veteran like Cub Swanson. Moicano has received a lot of attention from bettors as he’s ballooned up to a massive favorite. His skillset and fight IQ are really good but I just don’t see him getting a finish. Swanson is a tough out and could give Moicano some trouble too, so I’m staying away.
Thiago Santos $9200: I think Santos will be heavily owned. He’s coming off a knockout loss and I just don’t trust him, especially in a short notice situation like this one. Kevin Holland is a pretty respectable guy that has only lost one fight in his last 11, and that was a loss to Curtis Millender (not a terrible loss). Holland will also have a significant reach advantage. Santos has some serious power but he has some performances that leave you scratching your head.
Weili Zhang $8700: Zhang is making her UFC debut, and what we have seen in recent months is a lot of potential from China. You do see the majority of female MMA fights go to decision, but Zhang is a finisher. She’s well skilled on the ground and on the feet. Zhang made her professional debut back in 2013 and lost via unanimous decision, but since then she’s won 16 straight, 15 via TKO or submission. She has some slick submissions and some relentless ground and pound.
Johnson $9400/Cejudo $6800: As reasons stated above and below, either one of these guys will be in my lineup.
Dillashaw $8200/Garbrandt $8000: Like I said previously this is a coin flip fight, and is so close fight that you have to have split ownership here, the winner should definitely pay off their salary and then some.
Low Risk/High Reward
Henry Cejudo $6800: Again, for reasons stated above…should this fight go the distance I do believe that Cejudo will get takedowns, and even if he should lose could score quite a bit of fpts. If he wins…well, enough said. I should also throw in the fact that he is from LA, so he should have the crowd behind him.
Brett Johns $7400: Johns is looking to get back in the win column after suffering his first defeat to Aljamain Sterling 4 months ago. Johns is a very good wrestler and while he’s not the better striker than Pedro Munoz he will have a significant reach advantage. Johns will look to take this to the canvas and will need to be aware of the guillotine of Munoz but I think he’s capable of getting the job done.
Kevin Holland $7000: Holland definitely has the striking and the reach advantage to pull off the upset, Santos’ chin is a little suspect in my opinion.
Good luck and enjoy the fights!