UFC 229 Betting and DFS Preview
We’ve all waited, and come Saturday, October 6th, the wait is over. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov for the UFC lightweight championship. The Main Event and Co-Main Event should deliver, but the main card and prelims are pretty nice as well. This card is great from both a betting and DFS perspective. I’ll provide some quick takes for some of the prelims, and break down some of the main card, and of course I got some Draft Kings nuggets as well.
Gray Maynard (13-6-1) vs. Nik Lentz (28-9-2)
I have no clue what version of Gray Maynard we’ll get. He sure delivered against Tiruto Ishihara, but I don’t think he’ll do it against Lentz. Lentz should take care of business and could end it early.
Nik Lentz via 2nd round submission
Vicente Luque (13-6-1) vs. Jalin Turner (7-3)
I really am leaning towards taking a shot with Turner. Turner has a huge size advantage and I think he’s the quicker guy in my opinion. However if Luque gets this to the mat it could be a wrap. This is an extremely dangerous fight for Luque. I just have a hunch Turner pulls the upset.
Jalin Turner via 2nd rd TKO
Sergio Pettis (17-3) vs. Jussier Formiga (21-5)
This should be one of the better fights on the card. Pettis is not as flashy as his brother, but he’s very technically sound. Formiga is gifted on the ground, and I think it will go there at some point as Pettis’ takedown defense is good but not great. If Formiga gets the fight to where he wants it, I think the writing is on the wall. I’m rooting for Pettis to get it done but at this stage in his career I think this will be a learning experience.
Jussier Formiga via 3rd round submission
Ovince St. Preux (23-11) vs. Dominick Reyes (9-0)
Dominick Reyes is rising up the rankings and the guy has certainly impressed, but let’s look at the level of competition first….
Jeremy Kimball…recently retired immediately after his fight with Darko Stosic.
All 3 of his opponents have 2 things in common. They were all finished in the first round by Reyes, and they are all 1-3 in the UFC.
So you’re telling me a guy that’s undefeated in the UFC, with his opponents having a combined 3-9 record is a -225 favorite over OSP? What is going to happen if Reyes goes into the second round? I am quite certain OSP knows he’s an underdog, and when you expect him to lose he usually comes up with a big performance. Many forget what kind of athlete OSP is…I guess we’ll see what happens, but I’ll take a shot on OSP as a disrespected underdog. I think he ruins quite a few parlays on Saturday night.
Ovince St. Preux by 2nd round submission (Via Von Flue choke of course, why not)
Tony Ferguson (23-3) vs. Anthony Pettis (21-7)
In this one the winner of this fight could make their case for being the #1 contender for the 155 lb belt. We have the former interim champ Tony Ferguson, winner of 10 fights in a row just about 5 months removed from knee surgery. Former champion Anthony Pettis looked rejuvenated in his last fight against Michael Chiesa, earning a victory via second round submission. Currently Tony Ferguson is a heavy -360 favorite and given Pettis’ recent history it might be warranted.
Looking at this fight I see a couple of factors that favor Anthony Pettis. First off Pettis is a great striker, he owns one of the most spectacular moments in the history of MMA with his kick off the cage against Benson Henderson. Pettis is also extremely crafty on the ground. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has a number of submission wins on his resume, including a submission of Charles Oliveira, not an easy feat.
We know what Tony Ferguson has, great striking, solid ground game, great scrambler, and probably the best cardio I’ve seen. One thing that catches my eye is of course the surgery on the knee…that knee is out there and if Pettis can get to that knee with kicks it will make a difference. I also look at where these fighters are mentally. Pettis seems to be a guy that is reborn, and has gone back to his roots. Ferguson on the other hand is coming off surgery, he had his interim belt taken away, and had a close friend pass away recently. I will never question Tony Ferguson’s mental toughness, but is he 100% focused on the task at hand? Under normal circumstances I would clearly pick Ferguson to get the job done, but right now, I think Pettis is a bad matchup for Ferguson, and I think he picks up a decision victory on Saturday night.
Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision
UFC Lightweight Championship
Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0) vs. Conor McGregor (21-3)
It’s finally here, the fight that has everyone wanted. Barring a fighter slipping up and hurting himself or missing weight (ugh) we have ourselves the most anticipated fight in quite some time. Jones/Cormier II was close, but this one is going to be a spectacle. As a long time fan of MMA I am hoping this fight lasts a bit longer than McGregor vs. Aldo.
You can scour the internet and you’ll find close to 1,000 predictions, so here’s my take on the fight. In order for McGregor to win this fight, it has to be in the first two rounds. One thing I’ve noticed about McGregor in his only lightweight bout against Eddie Alvarez, his power isn’t exactly what it was when he was at 145. You even see it against Nate Diaz in their two fights, the potent left hand will put his opponent down, but it seemed to be more effective at featherweight. We’ve seen Nurmagomedov get somewhat rocked against Michael Johnson, but he recovered quickly and then proceeded to maul him. I do think that Conor is a somewhat underrated grappler and has guys like Dillon Danis in his camp, but there are levels, and Khabib is the elite chain wrestler in the UFC, and that is a fact.
When it comes to the mental warfare sapect of the fight, Nurmagomedov has seemed unfazed by McGregor, who in the past has gotten into his opponents heads before the octagon door shuts, except for Nick Diaz, who lets be honest, Diaz just doesn’t give a shit.
There is the chance Conor could catch him early, but realistically I see the more likely outcome being Khabib getting Conor down to the mat and wearing him down throughout the fight and winning by either ground and pound or submission late in the rd round.
Khabib Nurmagomedov via 3rd rd TKO
Alan Patrick $9100 – Takedowns takedowns takedowns…Patrick has 5 or more takedowns in his past 5 fights, and I don’t think Horcher is going to be able to stop them. Patrick should roll here and I see him scoring at least 95.
Ryan Spann $8700 – I like Spann a lot at this price. Henrique may be the bigger guy but Spann is so much faster and athletic. Spann could very well end this early.
Khabib/Conor – I’ll have more Khabib than Conor for sure, and I do think Conor with his cheap price tag will be extremely popular, but I’ll have to have him in 1 or 2 just in case he catches Khabib early.
Herrig/Waterson – These two could be overlooked with all the other big names. Waterson is capable of pulling off a slick submission, or Herrig could land a number of takedowns….If Waterson wins it will be inside the distance and if Herrig wins it will be a decision win with a decent amount of takedowns.
Alexander Volkov $8700 – Volkov is going to keep at range and I honestly think Lewis could come up big here. The main path to victory for Volkov is basically keeping it on the feet and picking him apart. I don’t see him scoring high.
Vicente Luque $9400 – Luque has scored well in his 4 of his 5 past two fights, but he’s at a tremendous size advantage, and I just don’t think paying up is really worth it. I may put him in one lineup but for the most part I’m passing, he could be heavily owned too and I can spend less elsewhere and get a better result.
Jalin Turner $6800 – This is a HUGE step up in competition for Turner, and Luque is legit, but how many times have we seen the lowest priced guy pull an upset? Turner has the tools and the length to make it interesting. I’ll have him in a few lineups.
Derrick Lewis $7500 – Lewis has had some serious back issues throughout his career, but he is finally on an approved steroid for his back so I’m intrigued. We could see a really good performance out of Black Beast, so at that price I think he’s worth having in a few lineups.
Jussier Formiga $7600 – I think Formiga has a legit shot to win and pay off that salary, and I could see him finishing Pettis, he might a tad popular though, so I won’t overindulge.
Anthony Pettis $6900 – For reasons stated above I will have Pettis in quite a few lineups.
Bets this weekend
Khabib Inside the distannce (# TBD, +135 as of now but haven’t hit it yet)
Anthony Pettis +300 1.5*
Ovince Saint Preux +195 0.5*