UFC on FOX 30 Betting and DFS Breakdown
What a card we have this weekend in Calgary! I can’t say I’ve been this excited for a TV event in quite some time. headlining the card will be lightweights Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez. The two UFC veterans have unfinished business as they met back in May of 2017 but resulted in a no contest due to an illegal knee by Alvarez. Here is a preview of some of the fights on the card and some of the fighters to consider (or not) from a DFS perspective.
Dustin Ortiz (18-7) +160 vs. Matheus Nicolau (13-1-1) -185
Matheus Nicolau is one of the bright young prospects in the UFC. In his return to the octagon after a 1 year USADA suspension, Nicolau was extremely impressive in a unanimous decision victory. Nicolau’s ground game and striking looked great, but let’s just take a step back and look who that was against…Louis Smolka, a guy that has lost 4 fights in a row. Dustin Ortiz is a seasoned veteran with quite a few impressive wins on his resume. Ortiz is coming off a really nice win over rising star Alexandre Pantoja. Ortiz is a guy with a solid wrestling base that puts forth a pace few can match. While Nicolau has a very bright future, I think the experience and pace that ortiz brings will present trouble for the young Brazilian. I’ll take Ortiz to grind out a decision.
Dustin Ortiz via unanimous decision
Jose Aldo (26-4) -105 vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-14) -125
At the beginning of the week the line opened with Jose Aldo being a sixeable favorite and now he’s the underdog. 3 years ago who would have thought that Jose Aldo would be an underdog to Jeremy Stephens. I really considered taking Stephens at + money, but it’s a pass for me now. I think this is the best version of Jeremy Stephens we’ve seen, and I think the beatings that Jose Aldo took against Max Holloway really took its toll. The way I see this going is Aldo starting out relatively well, but I think the aggressive Stephens will eventually cut off the cage and catch him. I think Max Holloway laid out the blueprint to beat Aldo, and I think Stephens is more than capable of closing the distance and getting the best of Aldo inside the pocket. The fight game is cruel, and unfortunately I think we will see how cruel it is on Saturday night.
Stephens via 2nd round knockout
Eddie Alvarez (29-5, 1 NC) vs. Dustin Poirier (23-5, 1 NC)
Both of these fighters have one thing in common. they are both coming off wins over Justin Gaethje. I just want to take a look at the prices for a second. Alvarez knocked out Gaethje in the 3rd round back in December of 2017, and Poirier knocked him out in the 4th round back in April of this year. Alvarez opened a +175 against Gaethje while Poirier opened a -130 favorite. In the first meeting Alvarez was a -160 favorite but now for this fight Poirier opened -145 and is now at around -160. In my opinion Alvarez should be a slight favorite or at least be listed at a pick em. I do think that the first round or so will be a chess match, and I don’t think thesew guys will really start throwing down until the 2nd or 3rd round. I don’t think this fight goes the distance but I do think it’s going over 2.5 rounds and that is currently +130 or so. I just think Alvarez is the more durable fighter and I don’t think Poirier can finish him on the feet. I’m taking the ‘Underground King’ at + money against the guy he should have finished in the first fight.
Alvarez via 4th round TKO
Islam Makhachev $9600 – The last time we saw Makhachev was at UFC 220 disposing of Gleison Tibau in the first round. Makhachev could very well pay off his salary with his solid wrestling base getting a lot of takedowns and advances. He’ll be in a lineup or two for me.
Hakeem Dawodu $9400 – Dawodu’s Octagon debut didn’t go as planned as he was knocked out by Danny Henry, but he’s at $9400 and a huge favorite for a reason. Dawodu is way too quick for the defensively lacking Austin Arnett and he really should finish him in the first round.
Jeremy Stephens $8,000 – Well you already know I like Stephens in this fight and I think he finishes Aldo. He might be heavily owned given his recent form, but I’ll have him in some lineups for sure. I’m not going to have Stephens in every lineup, but he’ll be in some.
I’m passing on…
Joanna Jedrzechek $9200 – I am passing on JJ, even though I think she’ll be in quite a few lineups with her name alone. I don’t think she’s putting a game Tecia Torres away and this is a 3 round fight, not a 5 rounder that she’s used to. I could see her cruising to a unanimous decision win, but I could also see Torres giving her some trouble. I don’t see her eclipsing 92 points at all.
Poirier $8800 / Alvarez $7400 – While I do like Alvarez in this matchup, I will have Poirier in a lineup of two. I don’t see this going the distance, and I have a feeling that you will need either to finish well.
Hernandez $7900 / Aubin-Mercier $8300 – Hernandez is still kind of green and while his 1st round knockout over Dariush was impressive, he faces a tough matchup in Olivier Aubin-Mercier. I think Hernandez gets an early finish, or Aubin Mercier overpowers him over the course of the fight scoring takedowns. This is one of the more intriguing bouts on the card.
Low Risk/High Reward
Dustin Ortiz $7200 – See the reasons above…Ortiz is a live dog in my opinion.
Tecia Torres $7000 – Tecia is really up against it but there is a few reasons why she might be worth a gamble in Draft Kings. First thing is that she’s now training in Colorado with Rose Namajunas, so you know that Rose knows how to beat Joanna…Second thing is she will be really low owned because everyone thinks that JJ should roll here. Torres’ speed and athleticism could give JJ some trouble.
Good luck and enjoy the fights!